Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 17, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	20	Nuggets	23%	108	114	109.6	104	101.6
	2	Warriors	77%	119	105	101.9	103	105.4

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+22

-20

106

GSW

+14

-20

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.08 53.8%

GSW

1.08 54.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

20 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	42.2	12	33%	12	16	3	2	7	4	4	8	0-0	-	3-9	33%	2-9	22%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 27	40.9	21	53%	10	5	2	0	0	3	1	9	4-4	100%	4-8	50%	3-10	30%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	37.1	38	73%	6	3	0	0	7	2	5	1	6-6	100%	10-17	59%	4-6	67%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	35.4	13	59%	5	1	1	4	1	3	0	5	2-6	33%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Hunter Tyson #5 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	19.7	9	50%	7	2	2	0	0	3	4	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-4	25%

Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	23.9	5	63%	8	2	1	0	3	1	3	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	18.9	6	75%	1	1	1	1	0	4	1	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	11.0	3	25%	1	2	1	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	10.9	7	117%	3	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Contusion/Left Ankle Impingement
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Inflammation
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	54%	53	32	12	7	20	24	19	34	14-18	78%	29-53	55%	14-39	36%

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20 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	42.2	12	33%	12	16	3	2	7	4	4	8	0-0	-	3-9	33%	2-9	22%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 27	40.9	21	53%	10	5	2	0	0	3	1	9	4-4	100%	4-8	50%	3-10	30%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	37.1	38	73%	6	3	0	0	7	2	5	1	6-6	100%	10-17	59%	4-6	67%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	35.4	13	59%	5	1	1	4	1	3	0	5	2-6	33%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Hunter Tyson #5 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	19.7	9	50%	7	2	2	0	0	3	4	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-4	25%

Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	23.9	5	63%	8	2	1	0	3	1	3	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	18.9	6	75%	1	1	1	1	0	4	1	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	11.0	3	25%	1	2	1	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	10.9	7	117%	3	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Contusion/Left Ankle Impingement
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Inflammation
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	54%	53	32	12	7	20	24	19	34	14-18	78%	29-53	55%	14-39	36%

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2 Golden State Warriors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephen Curry #30 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 37	35.7	20	43%	4	7	3	0	7	2	0	4	4-4	100%	2-7	29%	4-14	29%
Jimmy Butler III #10 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 36	33.4	23	55%	8	6	2	1	2	2	3	5	6-10	60%	7-12	58%	1-4	25%
Draymond Green #23 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 35	32.5	10	83%	6	5	3	5	4	5	0	6	0-1	0%	5-5	100%	0-1	0%
Moses Moody #4 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 23	25.3	9	50%	2	0	2	1	0	2	2	0	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-4	25%
Quinten Post #21 · C · 7'0" 238 · 25	8.4	4	67%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%

Jonathan Kuminga #00 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 22	27.6	13	43%	3	4	1	0	3	3	0	3	5-8	63%	4-9	44%	0-2	0%
Gary Payton II #0 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 32	26.4	18	90%	3	1	3	1	0	3	1	2	0-1	0%	6-7	86%	2-3	67%
Buddy Hield #7 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 32	21.0	2	25%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Kevon Looney #5 · C · 6'9" 222 · 29	15.2	6	75%	7	0	1	1	1	3	4	3	0-3	0%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Gui Santos #15 · PF · 6'7" 185 · 23	14.4	0	0%	4	0	0	1	3	1	1	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · C · 6'9" 245 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Pat Spencer #61 · PG · 6'2" 205 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #12 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jackson Rowe #44 · PF · 6'6" 210 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taran Armstrong #1 · NA · 6'5" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Brandin Podziemski #2 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Low Back; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	54%	38	24	16	10	20	21	11	27	15-27	56%	33-51	65%	8-33	24%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	GSW
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	GSW

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.08 53.8%

GSW

1.08 54.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

59%

GSW

74%

Midrange

DEN

47%

GSW

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

21.0

36%

54%

GSW

12.0

24%

36%

Free Throws

DEN

78%

GSW

56%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Gordon	38	73%	19.0 / 26
M. Porter	21	53%	10.5 / 20
P. Watson	13	59%	6.5 / 11
R. Westbrook	12	33%	6.0 / 18
H. Tyson	9	50%	4.5 / 9
Z. Nnaji	7	117%	3.5 / 3
S. Jones	6	75%	3.0 / 4
V. Cancar	5	63%	2.5 / 4
J. Pickett	3	25%	1.5 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Warriors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Butler	23	55%	11.5 / 21
S. Curry	20	43%	10.0 / 23
G. Payton	18	90%	9.0 / 10
J. Kuminga	13	43%	6.5 / 15
D. Green	10	83%	5.0 / 6
M. Moody	9	50%	4.5 / 9
K. Looney	6	75%	3.0 / 4
Q. Post	4	67%	2.0 / 3
B. Hield	2	25%	1.0 / 4
G. Santos	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 16 114.2	DEN 109.6 +7.7 GSW 101.9
Pace	8 100.6 17 99.4	DEN 101.6 GSW 105.4 +3.8
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 18 14.3	DEN 14.2 GSW 13.7 −0.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 20 53.6%	DEN 54.3% +0.7% GSW 53.6%
TO %	15 13.3% 13 13.2%	DEN 18.0% GSW 17.3% −0.7%
ORB %	7 26.7% 5 27.3%	DEN 41.3% +16.9% GSW 24.4%
FTrt	5 25.9 14 24.4	DEN 19.6 GSW 32.1 +12.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 1 71.4%	DEN 74.4% +15.9% GSW 58.5%
STL %	19 7.9% 3 9.4%	DEN 11.5% GSW 15.5% +4.0%
BLK %	21 9.0% 13 9.5%	DEN 13.7% GSW 18.9% +5.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 21 55.3%	DEN 53.8% GSW 54.1% +0.3%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 21 62.7%	DEN 58.8% GSW 74.3% +15.5%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 25 39.9%	DEN 47.4% +3.6% GSW 43.8%
3P %	5 37.6% 16 36.4%	DEN 35.9% +11.7% GSW 24.2%
FT %	23 77.0% 25 76.3%	DEN 77.8% +22.2% GSW 55.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 23 30.1%	DEN 37.0% GSW 41.7% +4.7%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 7 23.1%	DEN 20.7% GSW 19.0% −1.6%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 2 46.9%	DEN 42.4% +3.1% GSW 39.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	GSW
Possessions	104	103
Possession Minutes	24.6	23.4
Points	114	105
Rebounds	53	38
Assists	32	24
Steals	12	16
Blocks	7	10
Turnovers (Team)	20 (2)	20 (0)
Fouls	24	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	19 (3)	11 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (4)	27 (1)
Field Goals	43-92	41-84
At-the-Rim FG	20-34	26-35
Midrange FG	9-19	7-16
2-Point FG	29-53	33-51
3-Point FG	14-39	8-33
Free Throws	14-18	15-27
Fast Break Pts	25	21
2nd Chance Pts	18	11
Points in Paint	46	64
Pts off Turnovers	24	27
Bench Points	21	39
Biggest Lead	15	1

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg