Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 17, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	26	Wizards	44%	114	97	97.0	100	95.2
	19	Blazers	56%	116	112	113.1	99	104.3

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+16

-16

100

POR

+19

-8

110

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.97 48.5%

POR

1.02 50.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

26 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
AJ Johnson #5 · SF · 6'5" 160 · 20	34.8	8	44%	7	4	0	1	6	1	0	7	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	21.8	20	59%	4	3	1	2	0	1	4	0	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	3-9	33%
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	19.5	11	50%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-3	33%
Khris Middleton #32 · PF · 6'7" 222 · 34	10.5	4	67%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jordan Poole #13 · PG · 6'4" 194 · 26	10.5	9	75%	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	2-5	40%

Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	27.9	11	55%	6	3	2	0	3	0	2	4	0-0	-	4-7	57%	1-3	33%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	25.5	3	19%	4	8	0	1	1	2	0	4	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	24.8	2	25%	4	3	0	1	1	2	2	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	24.3	17	61%	8	2	1	2	3	2	1	7	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	3-6	50%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	21.4	7	58%	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	19.1	5	28%	5	2	1	0	0	2	2	3	0-0	-	1-5	20%	1-4	25%
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Non-covid illness
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Sprain
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	49%	49	27	6	7	16	16	11	38	9-12	75%	26-52	50%	12-40	30%

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26 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
AJ Johnson #5 · SF · 6'5" 160 · 20	34.8	8	44%	7	4	0	1	6	1	0	7	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	21.8	20	59%	4	3	1	2	0	1	4	0	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	3-9	33%
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	19.5	11	50%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-3	33%
Khris Middleton #32 · PF · 6'7" 222 · 34	10.5	4	67%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jordan Poole #13 · PG · 6'4" 194 · 26	10.5	9	75%	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	2-5	40%

Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	27.9	11	55%	6	3	2	0	3	0	2	4	0-0	-	4-7	57%	1-3	33%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	25.5	3	19%	4	8	0	1	1	2	0	4	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	24.8	2	25%	4	3	0	1	1	2	2	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	24.3	17	61%	8	2	1	2	3	2	1	7	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	3-6	50%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	21.4	7	58%	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	19.1	5	28%	5	2	1	0	0	2	2	3	0-0	-	1-5	20%	1-4	25%
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Non-covid illness
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Sprain
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	49%	49	27	6	7	16	16	11	38	9-12	75%	26-52	50%	12-40	30%

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19 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kris Murray #24 · PF · 6'8" 218 · 25	36.9	5	28%	10	3	4	0	0	2	1	9	1-2	50%	2-5	40%	0-3	0%
Deni Avdija #8 · SF · 6'8" 228 · 24	27.3	15	63%	6	2	0	0	2	1	0	6	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-7	43%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 22	25.3	16	50%	5	2	2	0	2	0	1	4	2-4	50%	4-7	57%	2-7	29%
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 21	25.1	11	50%	13	2	0	0	0	1	7	6	1-4	25%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Anfernee Simons #1 · PG · 6'3" 200 · 26	23.1	30	79%	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	5-5	100%	5-6	83%	5-11	45%

Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 21	31.1	11	39%	5	3	0	0	2	3	2	3	0-0	-	4-9	44%	1-5	20%
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 29	22.9	15	63%	4	3	1	1	1	3	2	2	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	3-6	50%
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 28	22.1	9	50%	4	3	5	1	0	0	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-5	20%
Dalano Banton #5 · PG · 6'8" 203 · 25	20.5	0	0%	1	5	3	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Bryce McGowens #11 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 22	4.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Justin Minaya #10 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 26	1.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendinitis
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Soreness
Deandre Ayton #2 · C · 7'0" 252 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	INACTIVE
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jabari Walker #34 · SF · 6'7" 237 · 23	Inactive – Concussion Protocol
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	51%	50	25	15	3	8	10	14	36	13-19	68%	27-53	51%	15-46	33%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	POR
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	POR

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.97 48.5%

POR

1.02 50.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

55%

POR

60%

Midrange

WAS

43%

POR

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

18.0

30%

45%

POR

22.5

33%

49%

Free Throws

WAS

75%

POR

68%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sarr	20	59%	10.0 / 17
T. Vukcevic	17	61%	8.5 / 14
K. George	11	50%	5.5 / 11
J. Martin	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Poole	9	75%	4.5 / 6
A. Johnson	8	44%	4.0 / 9
A. Gill	7	58%	3.5 / 6
J. Champagnie	5	28%	2.5 / 9
K. Middleton	4	67%	2.0 / 3
B. Carrington	3	19%	1.5 / 8
C. Jones	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Simons	30	79%	15.0 / 19
S. Sharpe	16	50%	8.0 / 16
D. Avdija	15	63%	7.5 / 12
D. Reath	15	63%	7.5 / 12
D. Clingan	11	50%	5.5 / 11
S. Henderson	11	39%	5.5 / 14
M. Thybulle	9	50%	4.5 / 9
K. Murray	5	28%	2.5 / 9
D. Banton	0	-	0.0 / 2
B. McGowens	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	30 105.8 23 110.9	WAS 97.0 POR 113.1 +16.1
Pace	4 101.8 16 99.5	WAS 95.2 POR 104.3 +9.1
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 19 14.3	WAS 15.1 POR 13.8 −1.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 51.2% 25 52.1%	WAS 47.8% POR 50.0% +2.2%
TO %	27 14.6% 29 15.1%	WAS 14.1% POR 7.7% −6.4%
ORB %	25 22.7% 2 29.2%	WAS 23.4% POR 26.9% +3.5%
FTrt	26 22.9 13 24.6	WAS 13.0 POR 19.2 +6.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	12 63.7% 28 58.7%	WAS 71.1% +11.6% POR 59.5%
STL %	25 7.4% 13 8.2%	WAS 6.0% POR 15.2% +9.2%
BLK %	12 9.6% 9 10.0%	WAS 13.2% +7.4% POR 5.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 53.2% 23 54.1%	WAS 48.5% POR 50.9% +2.4%
Rim FG%	17 63.7% 27 60.7%	WAS 55.2% POR 60.0% +4.8%
Mid FG%	30 38.0% 28 39.1%	WAS 43.5% +10.2% POR 33.3%
3P %	29 33.5% 26 34.2%	WAS 30.0% POR 32.6% +2.6%
FT %	16 77.8% 26 76.2%	WAS 75.0% +6.6% POR 68.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.5% 2 36.6%	WAS 31.5% POR 35.4% +3.8%
Mid Att. %	11 25.9% 3 21.6%	WAS 25.0% POR 18.2% −6.8%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 17 41.8%	WAS 43.5% POR 46.5% +3.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	POR
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	25.2	22.8
Points	97	112
Rebounds	49	50
Assists	27	25
Steals	6	15
Blocks	7	3
Turnovers (Team)	16 (0)	8 (1)
Fouls	16	10
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (5)	14 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (3)	36 (2)
Field Goals	38-92	42-99
At-the-Rim FG	16-29	21-35
Midrange FG	10-23	6-18
2-Point FG	26-52	27-53
3-Point FG	12-40	15-46
Free Throws	9-12	13-19
Fast Break Pts	18	23
2nd Chance Pts	11	24
Points in Paint	48	52
Pts off Turnovers	8	20
Bench Points	45	35
Biggest Lead	8	24

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg