Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 21, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Rockets	61%	109	102	106.3	96	95.7
	18	Heat	39%	105	98	103.2	95	95.3

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+18

-15

MIA

-20

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.03 51.5%

MIA

1.21 60.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 31	36.1	37	97%	0	3	3	0	1	3	0	0	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	9-11	82%
Amen Thompson #1 · PF · 6'7" 200 · 22	34.5	18	60%	9	5	7	1	2	1	3	6	2-3	67%	8-14	57%	0-0	-
Dillon Brooks #9 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 29	34.0	11	46%	1	0	3	0	3	4	0	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	1-7	14%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	33.6	8	24%	10	2	2	2	2	1	5	5	0-4	0%	4-15	27%	0-0	-
Jalen Green #4 · SG · 6'4" 186 · 23	32.2	6	23%	4	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	3-9	33%	0-4	0%

Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	27.2	7	50%	8	2	0	0	4	1	3	5	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 22	21.8	11	69%	6	0	0	0	2	1	0	6	2-4	50%	0-2	0%	3-4	75%
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	20.5	4	67%	8	1	1	0	1	2	4	4	0-2	0%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jock Landale #2 · C · 6'11" 255 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Whitmore #7 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nate Williams #19 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Avulsion Fracture
David Roddy #21 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jack McVeigh #58 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
N'Faly Dante #3 · C · 6'11" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	52%	46	14	17	4	15	14	15	31	10-21	48%	25-56	45%	14-28	50%

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7 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 31	36.1	37	97%	0	3	3	0	1	3	0	0	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	9-11	82%
Amen Thompson #1 · PF · 6'7" 200 · 22	34.5	18	60%	9	5	7	1	2	1	3	6	2-3	67%	8-14	57%	0-0	-
Dillon Brooks #9 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 29	34.0	11	46%	1	0	3	0	3	4	0	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	1-7	14%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	33.6	8	24%	10	2	2	2	2	1	5	5	0-4	0%	4-15	27%	0-0	-
Jalen Green #4 · SG · 6'4" 186 · 23	32.2	6	23%	4	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	3-9	33%	0-4	0%

Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	27.2	7	50%	8	2	0	0	4	1	3	5	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 22	21.8	11	69%	6	0	0	0	2	1	0	6	2-4	50%	0-2	0%	3-4	75%
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	20.5	4	67%	8	1	1	0	1	2	4	4	0-2	0%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jock Landale #2 · C · 6'11" 255 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Whitmore #7 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nate Williams #19 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Avulsion Fracture
David Roddy #21 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jack McVeigh #58 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
N'Faly Dante #3 · C · 6'11" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	52%	46	14	17	4	15	14	15	31	10-21	48%	25-56	45%	14-28	50%

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18 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	38.6	8	33%	3	4	0	0	6	0	0	3	2-2	100%	3-10	30%	0-1	0%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	37.5	16	57%	6	6	0	0	2	2	1	5	2-3	67%	4-9	44%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	35.1	16	80%	14	1	2	2	1	3	2	12	0-0	-	5-8	63%	2-2	100%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	29.6	30	88%	2	3	1	1	4	3	0	2	8-9	89%	8-9	89%	2-4	50%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SG · 6'6" 230 · 24	14.6	4	40%	2	2	0	1	2	0	1	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%

Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	33.6	12	60%	3	4	0	1	3	3	0	3	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-4	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	23.9	8	80%	4	3	4	0	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	17.6	4	40%	0	2	1	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	5.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	3.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	61%	34	25	8	5	20	16	5	29	12-14	86%	28-49	57%	10-24	42%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.03 51.5%

MIA

1.21 60.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

54%

MIA

74%

Midrange

HOU

36%

MIA

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

21.0

50%

75%

MIA

15.0

42%

63%

Free Throws

HOU

48%

MIA

86%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
F. VanVleet	37	97%	18.5 / 19
A. Thompson	18	60%	9.0 / 15
D. Brooks	11	46%	5.5 / 12
J. Smith	11	69%	5.5 / 8
A. Sengun	8	24%	4.0 / 17
T. Eason	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Green	6	23%	3.0 / 13
S. Adams	4	67%	2.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Wiggins	30	88%	15.0 / 17
B. Adebayo	16	57%	8.0 / 14
K. Ware	16	80%	8.0 / 10
D. Mitchell	12	60%	6.0 / 10
T. Herro	8	33%	4.0 / 12
H. Highsmith	8	80%	4.0 / 5
J. Jaquez	4	40%	2.0 / 5
D. Robinson	4	40%	2.0 / 5
A. Burks	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 114.9 21 112.4	HOU 106.3 +3.1 MIA 103.2
Pace	18 99.0 27 97.2	HOU 95.7 +0.4 MIA 95.3
Avg. Poss. Time	12 14.8 9 14.9	HOU 15.1 −0.1 MIA 15.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 52.3% 19 54.4%	HOU 54.8% MIA 58.9% +4.1%
TO %	10 13.1% 8 12.8%	HOU 15.4% −5.6% MIA 21.0%
ORB %	1 31.7% 27 22.3%	HOU 34.1% +20.2% MIA 13.9%
FTrt	16 24.2 24 23.2	HOU 25.0 +5.8 MIA 19.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	30 54.9% 10 65.3%	HOU 35.9% MIA 65.8% +29.9%
STL %	9 8.4% 12 8.3%	HOU 17.7% +9.3% MIA 8.4%
BLK %	15 9.3% 30 7.6%	HOU 8.2% MIA 8.9% +0.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.58 and 2.58.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 53.9% 19 56.0%	HOU 51.5% MIA 60.5% +9.0%
Rim FG%	25 61.5% 22 62.5%	HOU 53.6% MIA 73.7% +20.1%
Mid FG%	24 40.4% 12 44.4%	HOU 35.7% MIA 46.7% +11.0%
3P %	21 35.3% 11 36.7%	HOU 50.0% +8.3% MIA 41.7%
FT %	30 73.8% 8 79.1%	HOU 47.6% MIA 85.7% +38.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	10 33.3% 25 29.6%	HOU 33.3% +7.3% MIA 26.0%
Mid Att. %	23 28.3% 20 27.5%	HOU 33.3% −7.8% MIA 41.1%
3P Att. %	27 38.4% 12 42.9%	HOU 33.3% +0.5% MIA 32.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.2 and 2.2.

Game Totals	HOU	MIA
Possessions	96	95
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	102	98
Rebounds	46	34
Assists	14	25
Steals	17	8
Blocks	4	5
Turnovers (Team)	15 (2)	20 (1)
Fouls	14	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (3)	5 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (0)	29 (3)
Field Goals	39-84	38-73
At-the-Rim FG	15-28	14-19
Midrange FG	10-28	14-30
2-Point FG	25-56	28-49
3-Point FG	14-28	10-24
Free Throws	10-21	12-14
Fast Break Pts	16	10
2nd Chance Pts	23	8
Points in Paint	40	44
Pts off Turnovers	24	15
Bench Points	22	24
Biggest Lead	10	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg