Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 21, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	17	Nuggets	55%	113	109	113.5	96	97.5
	21	Blazers	45%	111	128	133.3	96	94.5

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+16

-20

POR

+19

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.18 59.2%

POR

1.31 65.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

17 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	35.0	10	50%	4	2	2	1	3	2	0	4	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-2	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	33.0	15	83%	5	2	0	0	3	5	2	3	2-2	100%	5-5	100%	1-3	33%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	31.6	23	77%	3	4	0	0	1	1	2	1	10-12	83%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	29.9	18	53%	4	4	3	0	9	5	1	3	6-8	75%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	28.6	17	71%	5	3	1	0	3	5	1	4	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	3-7	43%

Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	27.4	12	55%	5	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-7	43%	2-4	50%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	23.3	5	42%	0	5	1	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	12.1	0	0%	1	1	3	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	6.1	2	33%	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	4.3	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	4.3	3	75%	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	4.3	4	67%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Impingement
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	59%	31	24	10	2	20	25	11	20	24-28	86%	29-50	58%	9-26	35%

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17 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	35.0	10	50%	4	2	2	1	3	2	0	4	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-2	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	33.0	15	83%	5	2	0	0	3	5	2	3	2-2	100%	5-5	100%	1-3	33%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	31.6	23	77%	3	4	0	0	1	1	2	1	10-12	83%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	29.9	18	53%	4	4	3	0	9	5	1	3	6-8	75%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	28.6	17	71%	5	3	1	0	3	5	1	4	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	3-7	43%

Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	27.4	12	55%	5	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-7	43%	2-4	50%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	23.3	5	42%	0	5	1	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	12.1	0	0%	1	1	3	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	6.1	2	33%	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	4.3	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	4.3	3	75%	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	4.3	4	67%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Impingement
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	59%	31	24	10	2	20	25	11	20	24-28	86%	29-50	58%	9-26	35%

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21 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 22	38.6	23	52%	6	2	1	1	1	4	2	4	2-2	100%	9-12	75%	1-10	10%
Deni Avdija #8 · SF · 6'8" 228 · 24	38.3	36	90%	8	7	3	1	5	2	2	6	8-9	89%	8-10	80%	4-6	67%
Toumani Camara #33 · C · 6'7" 230 · 25	35.8	16	67%	6	4	2	0	1	1	2	4	4-6	67%	3-5	60%	2-5	40%
Kris Murray #24 · PF · 6'8" 218 · 25	21.3	3	38%	3	2	0	1	0	1	3	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 21	19.8	16	57%	2	4	1	0	5	4	2	0	1-2	50%	3-8	38%	3-5	60%

Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 29	32.5	12	75%	7	4	1	0	1	4	4	3	0-0	-	6-7	86%	0-1	0%
Dalano Banton #5 · PG · 6'8" 203 · 25	29.4	19	79%	3	5	3	3	2	0	0	3	5-6	83%	4-5	80%	2-5	40%
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 28	17.1	3	50%	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Bryce McGowens #11 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 22	2.5	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 21	2.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Justin Minaya #10 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 26	2.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Illness; .
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendinitis
Anfernee Simons #1 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Illness; .
Deandre Ayton #2 · C · 7'0" 252 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Sidy Cissoko #91 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	INACTIVE
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Jabari Walker #34 · SF · 6'7" 237 · 23	Inactive – Concussion Protocol
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	65%	38	30	12	6	17	18	15	23	20-25	80%	33-52	63%	14-35	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	POR
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	POR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.18 59.2%

POR

1.31 65.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

66%

POR

70%

Midrange

DEN

48%

POR

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

13.5

35%

52%

POR

21.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

DEN

86%

POR

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Gordon	23	77%	11.5 / 15
R. Westbrook	18	53%	9.0 / 17
M. Porter	17	71%	8.5 / 12
C. Braun	15	83%	7.5 / 9
P. Watson	12	55%	6.0 / 11
J. Murray	10	50%	5.0 / 10
J. Pickett	5	42%	2.5 / 6
P. Hall	4	67%	2.0 / 3
H. Tyson	3	75%	1.5 / 2
S. Jones	2	33%	1.0 / 3
Z. Nnaji	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Avdija	36	90%	18.0 / 20
S. Sharpe	23	52%	11.5 / 22
D. Banton	19	79%	9.5 / 12
T. Camara	16	67%	8.0 / 12
S. Henderson	16	57%	8.0 / 14
D. Reath	12	75%	6.0 / 8
K. Murray	3	38%	1.5 / 4
M. Thybulle	3	50%	1.5 / 3
B. McGowens	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 23 110.9	DEN 113.5 POR 133.3 +19.8
Pace	8 100.6 16 99.5	DEN 97.5 +3.0 POR 94.5
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 19 14.3	DEN 14.8 −0.5 POR 15.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 25 52.1%	DEN 55.9% POR 62.1% +6.2%
TO %	15 13.3% 29 15.1%	DEN 19.2% POR 14.8% −4.4%
ORB %	7 26.7% 2 29.2%	DEN 32.4% POR 42.9% +10.5%
FTrt	5 25.9 13 24.6	DEN 36.8 +8.1 POR 28.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 28 58.7%	DEN 63.2% POR 63.8% +0.6%
STL %	19 7.9% 13 8.2%	DEN 10.4% POR 12.5% +2.1%
BLK %	21 9.0% 9 10.0%	DEN 3.8% POR 12.0% +8.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 23 54.1%	DEN 59.2% POR 65.3% +6.1%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 27 60.7%	DEN 65.5% POR 70.0% +4.5%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 28 39.1%	DEN 47.6% +5.9% POR 41.7%
3P %	5 37.6% 26 34.2%	DEN 34.6% POR 40.0% +5.4%
FT %	23 77.0% 26 76.2%	DEN 85.7% +5.7% POR 80.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 2 36.6%	DEN 38.2% POR 46.0% +7.8%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 3 21.6%	DEN 27.6% POR 13.8% −13.8%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 17 41.8%	DEN 34.2% POR 40.2% +6.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	POR
Possessions	96	96
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	109	128
Rebounds	31	38
Assists	24	30
Steals	10	12
Blocks	2	6
Turnovers (Team)	20 (1)	17 (0)
Fouls	25	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (5)	15 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	20 (4)	23 (1)
Field Goals	38-76	47-87
At-the-Rim FG	19-29	28-40
Midrange FG	10-21	5-12
2-Point FG	29-50	33-52
3-Point FG	9-26	14-35
Free Throws	24-28	20-25
Fast Break Pts	20	18
2nd Chance Pts	10	26
Points in Paint	42	64
Pts off Turnovers	26	25
Bench Points	26	34
Biggest Lead	10	23

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg