Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, March 29, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	18	Heat	66%	112	118	126.9	93	88.9
	25	76ers	34%	106	95	102.2	93	97.5

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+18

-9

102

PHI

-18

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.16 57.8%

PHI

1.14 57.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

18 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	33.6	30	83%	3	7	0	0	2	1	2	1	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	5-9	56%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	30.5	13	108%	14	2	1	2	0	1	4	10	0-0	-	5-5	100%	1-1	100%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	30.0	14	58%	6	4	4	2	1	3	3	3	2-3	67%	3-9	33%	2-2	100%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	28.0	16	50%	7	5	0	0	1	1	2	5	4-5	80%	3-12	25%	2-2	100%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	19.9	20	77%	3	0	1	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	6-12	50%

Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	33.5	13	72%	6	3	2	0	1	2	1	5	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-7	43%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	32.3	6	33%	1	8	2	0	3	2	0	1	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	20.1	6	27%	4	2	1	0	1	1	2	2	0-0	-	3-9	33%	0-2	0%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	4.1	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	2.0	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	2.0	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	NWT - Not With Team \| L sacroiliac joint;Dys
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	NWT - Not With Team \| Right Hamstring'Tendinopathy
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	58%	47	33	12	4	9	13	16	31	10-13	77%	24-50	48%	20-43	47%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

18 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	33.6	30	83%	3	7	0	0	2	1	2	1	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	5-9	56%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	30.5	13	108%	14	2	1	2	0	1	4	10	0-0	-	5-5	100%	1-1	100%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	30.0	14	58%	6	4	4	2	1	3	3	3	2-3	67%	3-9	33%	2-2	100%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	28.0	16	50%	7	5	0	0	1	1	2	5	4-5	80%	3-12	25%	2-2	100%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	19.9	20	77%	3	0	1	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	6-12	50%

Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	33.5	13	72%	6	3	2	0	1	2	1	5	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-7	43%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	32.3	6	33%	1	8	2	0	3	2	0	1	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	20.1	6	27%	4	2	1	0	1	1	2	2	0-0	-	3-9	33%	0-2	0%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	4.1	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	2.0	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	2.0	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	NWT - Not With Team \| L sacroiliac joint;Dys
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	NWT - Not With Team \| Right Hamstring'Tendinopathy
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	58%	47	33	12	4	9	13	16	31	10-13	77%	24-50	48%	20-43	47%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

25 Philadelphia 76ers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Justin Edwards #19 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 21	35.5	17	77%	3	3	2	0	3	4	1	2	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	4-6	67%
Quentin Grimes #5 · SG · 6'5" 207 · 25	30.0	15	54%	4	3	0	0	3	2	1	3	0-1	0%	3-7	43%	3-7	43%
Guerschon Yabusele #28 · PF · 6'7" 265 · 29	29.9	1	17%	5	3	1	1	1	2	1	4	1-4	25%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jared Butler #12 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 25	29.9	19	73%	2	10	1	0	2	3	0	2	1-3	33%	3-8	38%	4-4	100%
Adem Bona #30 · C · 6'10" 235 · 22	29.6	16	89%	10	1	1	3	3	2	2	8	0-0	-	8-9	89%	0-0	-

Ricky Council IV #14 · SF · 6'6" 207 · 24	27.3	13	50%	6	4	0	0	2	0	0	6	3-4	75%	5-8	63%	0-4	0%
Lonnie Walker IV #16 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 26	20.5	10	56%	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-6	33%
Marcus Bagley #35 · SF · 6'6" 217 · 23	18.3	2	33%	5	0	1	3	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Jalen Hood-Schifino #17 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 22	12.9	2	33%	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Phillip Wheeler #36 · NA · 6'8" 185 · 23	6.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Tyrese Maxey #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Finger; Sprain
Kelly Oubre Jr. #9 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Alex Reese #65 · PF · 6'9" 245 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jeff Dowtin Jr. #11 · PG · 6'3" 177 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Joel Embiid #21 · C · 7'0" 270 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Andre Drummond #1 · C · 6'11" 279 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Toe; Sprain
Paul George #8 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Injury Recovery
Jared McCain #20 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Meniscus Surgery
Eric Gordon #23 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Surgery
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 39	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	57%	37	28	7	7	18	15	6	31	6-14	43%	25-44	57%	13-32	41%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	PHI
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	PHI

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.16 57.8%

PHI

1.14 57.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

55%

PHI

64%

Midrange

MIA

35%

PHI

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

30.0

47%

70%

PHI

19.5

41%

61%

Free Throws

MIA

77%

PHI

43%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	30	83%	15.0 / 18
A. Burks	20	77%	10.0 / 13
B. Adebayo	16	50%	8.0 / 16
P. Larsson	14	58%	7.0 / 12
K. Ware	13	108%	6.5 / 6
H. Highsmith	13	72%	6.5 / 9
D. Mitchell	6	33%	3.0 / 9
K. Anderson	6	27%	3.0 / 11
T. Rozier	0	-	0.0 / 2
J. Christopher	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

76ers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Butler	19	73%	9.5 / 13
J. Edwards	17	77%	8.5 / 11
A. Bona	16	89%	8.0 / 9
Q. Grimes	15	54%	7.5 / 14
R. Council	13	50%	6.5 / 13
L. Walker IV	10	56%	5.0 / 9
M. Bagley	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Hood-Schifino	2	33%	1.0 / 3
G. Yabusele	1	17%	0.5 / 3
P. Wheeler	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 112.4 22 110.9	MIA 126.9 +24.7 PHI 102.2
Pace	27 97.2 22 98.2	MIA 88.9 PHI 97.5 +8.7
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.9 10 14.8	MIA 16.2 PHI 14.8 −1.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 54.4% 22 52.7%	MIA 58.1% PHI 58.6% +0.5%
TO %	8 12.8% 9 13.0%	MIA 10.0% −8.0% PHI 18.0%
ORB %	27 22.3% 22 23.4%	MIA 34.0% +17.8% PHI 16.2%
FTrt	24 23.2 6 25.7	MIA 14.0 PHI 18.4 +4.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 65.3% 29 58.4%	MIA 75.0% +1.3% PHI 73.7%
STL %	12 8.3% 5 9.3%	MIA 12.9% +5.4% PHI 7.5%
BLK %	30 7.6% 19 9.1%	MIA 9.1% PHI 14.0% +4.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.0% 22 54.8%	MIA 57.8% +0.6% PHI 57.2%
Rim FG%	22 62.5% 23 61.8%	MIA 54.5% PHI 64.0% +9.5%
Mid FG%	12 44.4% 19 42.0%	MIA 35.3% PHI 47.4% +12.1%
3P %	11 36.7% 27 34.1%	MIA 46.5% +5.9% PHI 40.6%
FT %	8 79.1% 15 78.0%	MIA 76.9% +34.0% PHI 42.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25 29.6% 7 34.0%	MIA 35.5% +2.6% PHI 32.9%
Mid Att. %	20 27.5% 8 23.5%	MIA 18.3% −6.7% PHI 25.0%
3P Att. %	12 42.9% 14 42.5%	MIA 46.2% +4.1% PHI 42.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	PHI
Possessions	93	93
Possession Minutes	25.1	22.9
Points	118	95
Rebounds	47	37
Assists	33	28
Steals	12	7
Blocks	4	7
Turnovers (Team)	9 (2)	18 (0)
Fouls	13	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (2)	6 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (4)	31 (1)
Field Goals	44-93	38-76
At-the-Rim FG	18-33	16-25
Midrange FG	6-17	9-19
2-Point FG	24-50	25-44
3-Point FG	20-43	13-32
Free Throws	10-13	6-14
Fast Break Pts	11	18
2nd Chance Pts	21	7
Points in Paint	48	40
Pts off Turnovers	22	11
Bench Points	25	27
Biggest Lead	25	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg