Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 31, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	17	Kings	39%	115	109	106.9	102	96.1
	10	Pacers	61%	119	111	109.9	101	107.6

Scoring Opportunities

SAC

+13

-11

104

IND

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

1.05 52.4%

IND

1.13 56.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

17 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 36	42.3	31	57%	3	8	1	0	0	2	0	3	5-7	71%	10-18	56%	2-6	33%
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 29	39.9	25	57%	16	0	1	0	1	4	4	12	3-6	50%	11-19	58%	0-0	-
Zach LaVine #8 · PG · 6'5" 200 · 30	37.8	20	63%	5	2	1	0	4	4	0	5	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	4-8	50%
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 25	35.7	12	55%	7	0	1	2	0	5	0	7	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 25	27.1	9	90%	3	4	1	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	2-3	67%

Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	28.6	5	18%	7	7	0	0	5	1	1	6	0-0	-	1-11	9%	1-3	33%
Trey Lyles #41 · PF · 6'10" 234 · 29	15.3	3	75%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	8.2	2	50%	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Markelle Fultz #20 · PG · 6'4" 209 · 27	5.2	2	100%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaac Jones #3 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae Crowder #99 · PF · 6'6" 235 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mason Jones #15 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaiah Crawford #24 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jake LaRavia #33 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Bone Contusion
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	52%	45	22	7	2	11	18	6	39	11-17	65%	31-65	48%	12-27	44%

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17 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 36	42.3	31	57%	3	8	1	0	0	2	0	3	5-7	71%	10-18	56%	2-6	33%
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 29	39.9	25	57%	16	0	1	0	1	4	4	12	3-6	50%	11-19	58%	0-0	-
Zach LaVine #8 · PG · 6'5" 200 · 30	37.8	20	63%	5	2	1	0	4	4	0	5	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	4-8	50%
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 25	35.7	12	55%	7	0	1	2	0	5	0	7	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 25	27.1	9	90%	3	4	1	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	2-3	67%

Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	28.6	5	18%	7	7	0	0	5	1	1	6	0-0	-	1-11	9%	1-3	33%
Trey Lyles #41 · PF · 6'10" 234 · 29	15.3	3	75%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	8.2	2	50%	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Markelle Fultz #20 · PG · 6'4" 209 · 27	5.2	2	100%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaac Jones #3 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae Crowder #99 · PF · 6'6" 235 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mason Jones #15 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaiah Crawford #24 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jake LaRavia #33 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Bone Contusion
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	52%	45	22	7	2	11	18	6	39	11-17	65%	31-65	48%	12-27	44%

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10 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	34.8	24	60%	6	0	1	2	1	3	0	6	9-9	100%	6-8	75%	1-8	13%
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 25	33.4	18	64%	2	11	0	0	5	1	1	1	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	2-4	50%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 31	31.5	11	34%	3	6	0	0	1	0	2	1	2-2	100%	3-11	27%	1-4	25%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 25	31.4	5	31%	7	2	1	1	1	3	0	7	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	21.9	7	50%	7	1	0	1	0	1	1	6	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-3	33%

Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	21.8	15	75%	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	3-7	43%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 27	21.7	19	86%	7	0	0	0	1	3	1	6	0-0	-	2-3	67%	5-8	63%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 33	21.3	8	67%	2	4	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	14.4	0	0%	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 27	7.8	4	100%	3	0	0	1	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
RayJ Dennis #10 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Enrique Freeman #8 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
James Johnson #16 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Myles Turner #33 · C · 6'11" 250 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	57%	40	28	6	5	12	14	6	34	13-13	100%	28-49	57%	14-41	34%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAC	IND
Clock	Team	Event	SAC	IND

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

1.05 52.4%

IND

1.13 56.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAC

46%

IND

54%

Midrange

SAC

50%

IND

62%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAC

18.0

44%

67%

IND

21.0

34%

51%

Free Throws

SAC

65%

IND

100%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. DeRozan	31	57%	15.5 / 27
D. Sabonis	25	57%	12.5 / 22
Z. LaVine	20	63%	10.0 / 16
K. Murray	12	55%	6.0 / 11
K. Ellis	9	90%	4.5 / 5
M. Monk	5	18%	2.5 / 14
T. Lyles	3	75%	1.5 / 2
J. Valančiūnas	2	50%	1.0 / 2
M. Fultz	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Nesmith	24	60%	12.0 / 20
O. Toppin	19	86%	9.5 / 11
T. Haliburton	18	64%	9.0 / 14
J. Walker	15	75%	7.5 / 10
P. Siakam	11	34%	5.5 / 16
T. McConnell	8	67%	4.0 / 6
T. Bryant	7	50%	3.5 / 7
A. Nembhard	5	31%	2.5 / 8
T. Bradley	4	100%	2.0 / 2
B. Sheppard	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 115.9 9 115.3	SAC 106.9 IND 109.9 +3.0
Pace	19 98.9 6 100.9	SAC 96.1 IND 107.6 +11.5
Avg. Poss. Time	15 14.4 24 14.0	SAC 15.0 IND 13.4 −1.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	15 54.8% 4 56.2%	SAC 53.3% IND 54.4% +1.1%
TO %	6 12.6% 3 12.0%	SAC 10.8% −1.2% IND 12.0%
ORB %	16 25.4% 29 21.3%	SAC 15.0% +1.7% IND 13.3%
FTrt	21 23.5 17 24.1	SAC 18.5 +4.1 IND 14.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	22 61.5% 8 67.1%	SAC 51.2% IND 66.7% +15.5%
STL %	23 7.6% 10 8.3%	SAC 6.9% +1.0% IND 5.9%
BLK %	23 8.8% 8 10.2%	SAC 4.1% IND 7.7% +3.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 7 57.6%	SAC 52.4% IND 56.6% +4.2%
Rim FG%	2 67.6% 6 66.7%	SAC 46.2% IND 53.6% +7.4%
Mid FG%	4 46.0% 6 45.8%	SAC 50.0% IND 61.9% +11.9%
3P %	19 35.7% 9 36.8%	SAC 44.4% +10.3% IND 34.1%
FT %	4 80.6% 9 78.9%	SAC 64.7% IND 100.0% +35.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	28 26.8% 17 31.4%	SAC 42.4% +11.3% IND 31.1%
Mid Att. %	29 34.1% 24 28.6%	SAC 28.3% IND 23.3% −4.9%
3P Att. %	23 39.1% 21 40.0%	SAC 29.3% IND 45.6% +16.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.29 and 2.29.

Game Totals	SAC	IND
Possessions	102	101
Possession Minutes	25.5	22.5
Points	109	111
Rebounds	45	40
Assists	22	28
Steals	7	6
Blocks	2	5
Turnovers (Team)	11 (1)	12 (1)
Fouls	18	14
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (7)	6 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (0)	34 (5)
Field Goals	43-92	42-90
At-the-Rim FG	18-39	15-28
Midrange FG	13-26	13-21
2-Point FG	31-65	28-49
3-Point FG	12-27	14-41
Free Throws	11-17	13-13
Fast Break Pts	8	19
2nd Chance Pts	6	3
Points in Paint	48	50
Pts off Turnovers	12	20
Bench Points	12	46
Biggest Lead	16	10

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg