Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 31, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	16	Heat	69%	114	120	112.1	107	104.2
	25	Wizards	31%	107	94	88.7	106	108.9

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+17

-17

107

WAS

-18

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.12 56.1%

WAS

0.99 49.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	32.6	27	64%	5	5	3	0	2	0	0	5	9-9	100%	9-13	69%	0-6	0%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	30.9	28	61%	12	5	1	1	1	1	3	9	4-7	57%	9-14	64%	2-5	40%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	29.8	15	54%	7	5	1	0	2	2	3	4	1-2	50%	7-9	78%	0-4	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	22.2	6	50%	11	0	0	0	4	4	1	10	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	17.9	3	30%	3	2	1	1	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-5	20%

Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	32.6	15	58%	5	6	1	0	0	0	0	5	2-3	67%	2-4	50%	3-7	43%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	23.9	14	78%	7	2	3	0	3	1	4	3	0-0	-	4-7	57%	2-2	100%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	23.9	10	71%	4	3	1	0	2	4	1	3	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-1	100%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	20.6	2	25%	7	1	1	0	1	4	3	4	0-1	0%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	1.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	1.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	1.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Illness
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sacroiliac Joint; Dysfucntion
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tendinopathy
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	56%	62	29	12	2	17	16	15	47	17-24	71%	38-61	62%	9-32	28%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	32.6	27	64%	5	5	3	0	2	0	0	5	9-9	100%	9-13	69%	0-6	0%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	30.9	28	61%	12	5	1	1	1	1	3	9	4-7	57%	9-14	64%	2-5	40%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	29.8	15	54%	7	5	1	0	2	2	3	4	1-2	50%	7-9	78%	0-4	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	22.2	6	50%	11	0	0	0	4	4	1	10	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	17.9	3	30%	3	2	1	1	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-5	20%

Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	32.6	15	58%	5	6	1	0	0	0	0	5	2-3	67%	2-4	50%	3-7	43%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	23.9	14	78%	7	2	3	0	3	1	4	3	0-0	-	4-7	57%	2-2	100%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	23.9	10	71%	4	3	1	0	2	4	1	3	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-1	100%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	20.6	2	25%	7	1	1	0	1	4	3	4	0-1	0%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	1.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	1.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	1.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Illness
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sacroiliac Joint; Dysfucntion
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tendinopathy
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	56%	62	29	12	2	17	16	15	47	17-24	71%	38-61	62%	9-32	28%

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25 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	38.5	8	36%	8	9	3	0	3	1	0	8	0-0	-	1-5	20%	2-6	33%
AJ Johnson #5 · SF · 6'5" 160 · 20	36.8	8	40%	3	1	1	0	4	2	1	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-4	0%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	30.8	8	24%	3	3	1	2	2	5	0	3	1-1	100%	2-10	20%	1-7	14%
Justin Champagnie #9 · PF · 6'6" 206 · 24	29.1	5	42%	5	1	3	1	1	3	2	3	0-2	0%	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	29.0	35	88%	3	4	2	0	2	2	0	3	8-9	89%	3-4	75%	7-13	54%

Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	22.4	14	54%	4	1	0	0	3	1	0	4	0-0	-	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	20.2	4	29%	1	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	2-4	50%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	17.9	4	50%	4	1	2	0	2	3	0	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	15.4	8	80%	8	0	1	1	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Strain
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Surgery
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL Surgery
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	94	50%	39	22	14	4	18	20	5	34	13-18	72%	21-43	49%	13-43	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	WAS
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	WAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.12 56.1%

WAS

0.99 49.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

81%

WAS

54%

Midrange

MIA

43%

WAS

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

13.5

28%

42%

WAS

19.5

30%

45%

Free Throws

MIA

71%

WAS

72%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	28	61%	14.0 / 23
T. Herro	27	64%	13.5 / 21
P. Larsson	15	54%	7.5 / 14
T. Rozier	15	58%	7.5 / 13
J. Jaquez	14	78%	7.0 / 9
K. Anderson	10	71%	5.0 / 7
K. Ware	6	50%	3.0 / 6
A. Burks	3	30%	1.5 / 5
H. Highsmith	2	25%	1.0 / 4
I. Stevens	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Poole	35	88%	17.5 / 20
T. Vukcevic	14	54%	7.0 / 13
B. Carrington	8	36%	4.0 / 11
A. Johnson	8	40%	4.0 / 10
A. Sarr	8	24%	4.0 / 17
R. Holmes	8	80%	4.0 / 5
J. Champagnie	5	42%	2.5 / 6
M. Smart	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. Martin	4	50%	2.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 112.4 30 105.8	MIA 112.1 +23.5 WAS 88.7
Pace	27 97.2 4 101.8	MIA 104.2 WAS 108.9 +4.6
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.9 23 14.0	MIA 13.8 WAS 13.2 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 54.4% 28 51.2%	MIA 55.4% +8.3% WAS 47.1%
TO %	8 12.8% 27 14.6%	MIA 15.5% −0.6% WAS 16.1%
ORB %	27 22.3% 25 22.7%	MIA 30.6% +21.0% WAS 9.6%
FTrt	24 23.2 26 22.9	MIA 25.8 +4.9 WAS 20.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 65.3% 12 63.7%	MIA 61.7% WAS 64.7% +3.0%
STL %	12 8.3% 25 7.4%	MIA 11.2% WAS 13.2% +2.0%
BLK %	30 7.6% 12 9.6%	MIA 4.7% WAS 6.6% +1.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.0% 29 53.2%	MIA 56.1% +6.6% WAS 49.5%
Rim FG%	22 62.5% 17 63.7%	MIA 80.6% +26.8% WAS 53.8%
Mid FG%	12 44.4% 30 38.0%	MIA 43.3% +2.1% WAS 41.2%
3P %	11 36.7% 29 33.5%	MIA 28.1% WAS 30.2% +2.1%
FT %	8 79.1% 16 77.8%	MIA 70.8% WAS 72.2% +1.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25 29.6% 21 30.5%	MIA 33.3% +3.1% WAS 30.2%
Mid Att. %	20 27.5% 11 25.9%	MIA 32.3% WAS 19.8% −12.5%
3P Att. %	12 42.9% 10 43.6%	MIA 34.4% WAS 50.0% +15.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	WAS
Possessions	107	106
Possession Minutes	24.6	23.4
Points	120	94
Rebounds	62	39
Assists	29	22
Steals	12	14
Blocks	2	4
Turnovers (Team)	17 (2)	18 (0)
Fouls	16	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (2)	5 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	47 (1)	34 (0)
Field Goals	47-93	34-86
At-the-Rim FG	25-31	14-26
Midrange FG	13-30	7-17
2-Point FG	38-61	21-43
3-Point FG	9-32	13-43
Free Throws	17-24	13-18
Fast Break Pts	23	12
2nd Chance Pts	14	8
Points in Paint	68	36
Pts off Turnovers	23	15
Bench Points	41	30
Biggest Lead	29	4

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg