Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	17	Heat	21%	103	124	144.2	86	89.6
	2	Celtics	79%	115	103	119.8	86	82.7

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+15

-4

BOS

+22

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.28 63.9%

BOS

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

17 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	38.0	25	57%	6	9	2	0	0	1	1	5	9-10	90%	5-12	42%	2-6	33%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	32.0	7	50%	5	0	1	1	0	1	2	3	3-4	75%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	30.7	21	70%	5	6	0	0	0	2	0	5	1-1	100%	7-12	58%	2-3	67%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	30.2	16	67%	4	4	1	0	1	2	3	1	6-7	86%	2-6	33%	2-3	67%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	19.2	10	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	1-2	50%

Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	33.6	13	65%	4	7	3	0	1	3	1	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-6	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	25.8	10	63%	4	0	0	1	0	3	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-6	33%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	23.8	19	73%	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	4-4	100%	6-9	67%	1-2	50%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	1.7	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	1.7	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	1.7	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sacroiliac Joint; Dysfunction
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tendinopathy
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	124	64%	34	28	9	2	4	13	11	23	24-27	89%	29-53	55%	14-30	47%

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17 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	38.0	25	57%	6	9	2	0	0	1	1	5	9-10	90%	5-12	42%	2-6	33%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	32.0	7	50%	5	0	1	1	0	1	2	3	3-4	75%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	30.7	21	70%	5	6	0	0	0	2	0	5	1-1	100%	7-12	58%	2-3	67%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	30.2	16	67%	4	4	1	0	1	2	3	1	6-7	86%	2-6	33%	2-3	67%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	19.2	10	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	1-2	50%

Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	33.6	13	65%	4	7	3	0	1	3	1	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-6	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	25.8	10	63%	4	0	0	1	0	3	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-6	33%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	23.8	19	73%	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	4-4	100%	6-9	67%	1-2	50%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	1.7	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	1.7	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	1.7	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sacroiliac Joint; Dysfunction
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tendinopathy
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	124	64%	34	28	9	2	4	13	11	23	24-27	89%	29-53	55%	14-30	47%

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2 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jayson Tatum #0 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 27	31.9	16	40%	3	7	1	0	2	3	0	3	6-7	86%	2-8	25%	2-9	22%
Derrick White #9 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 31	31.1	16	62%	4	6	1	2	4	0	2	2	4-5	80%	3-4	75%	2-7	29%
Jaylen Brown #7 · SG · 6'6" 223 · 28	28.8	24	57%	9	4	0	0	3	2	2	7	2-3	67%	8-14	57%	2-6	33%
Sam Hauser #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 27	25.6	6	60%	3	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-5	40%
Luke Kornet #40 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	21.5	14	78%	6	2	0	0	0	3	6	0	0-0	-	7-9	78%	0-0	-

Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 27	31.3	10	56%	4	2	0	1	1	0	2	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-6	33%
Torrey Craig #12 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 34	19.1	2	20%	3	0	0	1	0	2	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	18.8	7	117%	7	2	0	1	0	2	2	5	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 25	16.9	3	50%	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
JD Davison #20 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 22	5.0	2	50%	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 21	5.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Drew Peterson #13 · PF · 6'8" 205 · 25	5.0	3	75%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Miles Norris #44 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Al Horford #42 · C · 6'8" 240 · 39	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Sprain
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Reconditioning
Jrue Holiday #4 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Impingement
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	54%	43	24	3	6	13	17	19	24	13-16	81%	27-44	61%	12-43	28%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	BOS
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	BOS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.28 63.9%

BOS

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

64%

BOS

74%

Midrange

MIA

48%

BOS

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

21.0

47%

70%

BOS

18.0

28%

42%

Free Throws

MIA

89%

BOS

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	25	57%	12.5 / 22
B. Adebayo	21	70%	10.5 / 15
K. Anderson	19	73%	9.5 / 13
P. Larsson	16	67%	8.0 / 12
D. Mitchell	13	65%	6.5 / 10
A. Burks	10	100%	5.0 / 5
H. Highsmith	10	63%	5.0 / 8
K. Ware	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Christopher	3	150%	1.5 / 1
I. Stevens	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Brown	24	57%	12.0 / 21
J. Tatum	16	40%	8.0 / 20
D. White	16	62%	8.0 / 13
L. Kornet	14	78%	7.0 / 9
P. Pritchard	10	56%	5.0 / 9
N. Queta	7	117%	3.5 / 3
S. Hauser	6	60%	3.0 / 5
B. Scheierman	3	50%	1.5 / 3
D. Peterson	3	75%	1.5 / 2
T. Craig	2	20%	1.0 / 5
J. Davison	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Walsh	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 112.4 2 119.5	MIA 144.2 +24.4 BOS 119.8
Pace	27 97.2 29 96.6	MIA 89.6 +6.9 BOS 82.7
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.9 2 15.5	MIA 16.1 −1.3 BOS 17.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 54.4% 5 56.1%	MIA 60.2% +8.5% BOS 51.7%
TO %	8 12.8% 2 11.7%	MIA 5.0% −7.1% BOS 12.1%
ORB %	27 22.3% 15 25.6%	MIA 31.4% BOS 45.2% +13.8%
FTrt	24 23.2 30 21.2	MIA 32.5 +14.1 BOS 18.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 65.3% 20 62.8%	MIA 65.1% +3.6% BOS 61.5%
STL %	12 8.3% 26 7.4%	MIA 10.5% +7.0% BOS 3.5%
BLK %	30 7.6% 4 10.5%	MIA 4.5% BOS 11.3% +6.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.02 and 2.02.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.0% 6 57.8%	MIA 63.9% +9.7% BOS 54.2%
Rim FG%	22 62.5% 4 67.3%	MIA 63.6% BOS 74.1% +10.5%
Mid FG%	12 44.4% 14 43.9%	MIA 48.4% +7.2% BOS 41.2%
3P %	11 36.7% 10 36.8%	MIA 46.7% +18.8% BOS 27.9%
FT %	8 79.1% 6 79.9%	MIA 88.9% +7.6% BOS 81.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25 29.6% 29 26.2%	MIA 26.5% BOS 31.0% +4.5%
Mid Att. %	20 27.5% 1 20.2%	MIA 37.3% BOS 19.5% −17.8%
3P Att. %	12 42.9% 1 53.6%	MIA 36.1% BOS 49.4% +13.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.17 and 3.17.

Game Totals	MIA	BOS
Possessions	86	86
Possession Minutes	23.0	25.0
Points	124	103
Rebounds	34	43
Assists	28	24
Steals	9	3
Blocks	2	6
Turnovers (Team)	4 (1)	13 (0)
Fouls	13	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (4)	19 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	23 (4)	24 (4)
Field Goals	43-83	39-87
At-the-Rim FG	14-22	20-27
Midrange FG	15-31	7-17
2-Point FG	29-53	27-44
3-Point FG	14-30	12-43
Free Throws	24-27	13-16
Fast Break Pts	14	6
2nd Chance Pts	13	23
Points in Paint	44	50
Pts off Turnovers	17	3
Bench Points	45	27
Biggest Lead	22	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg