Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	22	Spurs	54%	114	113	107.6	105	106.5
	26	Nuggets	46%	113	106	101.0	105	103.5

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+10

-10

105

DEN

+16

-12

109

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.07 53.3%

DEN

0.97 48.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

22 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 20	33.0	15	39%	15	9	0	0	1	2	5	10	1-2	50%	4-12	33%	2-6	33%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	31.8	17	57%	5	8	1	2	3	3	0	5	0-0	-	4-8	50%	3-7	43%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	31.6	14	50%	4	2	1	1	1	4	0	4	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-9	22%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	31.3	20	67%	8	3	1	0	1	1	0	8	1-1	100%	5-7	71%	3-8	38%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	31.1	0	0%	7	0	0	2	0	3	0	7	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-

Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	23.1	16	62%	10	0	1	0	1	1	3	7	4-4	100%	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	20.9	15	94%	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	3-3	100%
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	20.3	13	43%	1	2	1	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	5-9	56%	1-6	17%
Jordan McLaughlin #11 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 29	17.0	3	75%	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain Injury Management
Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Tightness
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Spasms
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Acute-On-Chronic Bone Bruise Injury Management
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Fifth Finger; Extensor Tendon Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	53%	52	27	6	5	10	17	8	44	10-13	77%	26-51	51%	17-46	37%

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22 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 20	33.0	15	39%	15	9	0	0	1	2	5	10	1-2	50%	4-12	33%	2-6	33%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	31.8	17	57%	5	8	1	2	3	3	0	5	0-0	-	4-8	50%	3-7	43%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	31.6	14	50%	4	2	1	1	1	4	0	4	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-9	22%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	31.3	20	67%	8	3	1	0	1	1	0	8	1-1	100%	5-7	71%	3-8	38%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	31.1	0	0%	7	0	0	2	0	3	0	7	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-

Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	23.1	16	62%	10	0	1	0	1	1	3	7	4-4	100%	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	20.9	15	94%	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	3-3	100%
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	20.3	13	43%	1	2	1	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	5-9	56%	1-6	17%
Jordan McLaughlin #11 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 29	17.0	3	75%	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain Injury Management
Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Tightness
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Spasms
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Acute-On-Chronic Bone Bruise Injury Management
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Fifth Finger; Extensor Tendon Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	53%	52	27	6	5	10	17	8	44	10-13	77%	26-51	51%	17-46	37%

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26 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	39.9	30	54%	11	6	3	0	4	0	1	10	5-6	83%	8-15	53%	3-10	30%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	36.0	10	50%	17	1	1	1	0	4	4	13	6-12	50%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · PG · 6'2" 202 · 25	35.1	17	61%	11	10	1	0	3	0	3	8	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	3-6	50%
Hunter Tyson #5 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 25	29.6	18	45%	6	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	1-1	100%	4-11	36%	3-9	33%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	22.6	8	50%	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	3-4	75%	1-3	33%	1-3	33%

Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	25.4	8	57%	3	2	2	1	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	23.9	4	25%	4	2	0	2	0	3	1	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-4	0%
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	19.9	7	32%	2	1	0	0	2	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-6	17%
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	7.5	4	100%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Inflammation
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Inflammation
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Impingement
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; /Right Calf Injury Management
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Strain
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 27	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	49%	58	24	7	4	12	12	14	44	17-25	68%	25-52	48%	13-44	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.07 53.3%

DEN

0.97 48.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

65%

DEN

50%

Midrange

SAS

44%

DEN

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

25.5

37%

55%

DEN

19.5

30%

44%

Free Throws

SAS

77%

DEN

68%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
H. Barnes	20	67%	10.0 / 15
C. Paul	17	57%	8.5 / 15
S. Mamukelashvili	16	62%	8.0 / 13
S. Castle	15	39%	7.5 / 19
B. Wesley	15	94%	7.5 / 8
J. Champagnie	14	50%	7.0 / 14
M. Branham	13	43%	6.5 / 15
J. McLaughlin	3	75%	1.5 / 2
B. Biyombo	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Westbrook	30	54%	15.0 / 28
H. Tyson	18	45%	9.0 / 20
J. Pickett	17	61%	8.5 / 14
D. Jordan	10	50%	5.0 / 10
Z. Nnaji	8	50%	4.0 / 8
V. Cancar	8	57%	4.0 / 7
T. Alexander	7	32%	3.5 / 11
S. Jones	4	25%	2.0 / 8
D. Šarić	4	100%	2.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	19 113.5 4 118.9	SAS 107.6 +6.7 DEN 101.0
Pace	13 100.1 8 100.6	SAS 106.5 +3.0 DEN 103.5
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.3 22 14.2	SAS 13.5 −0.4 DEN 13.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.4% 2 57.3%	SAS 53.1% +6.7% DEN 46.4%
TO %	11 13.2% 15 13.3%	SAS 8.9% −1.2% DEN 10.1%
ORB %	20 24.3% 7 26.7%	SAS 15.4% DEN 24.1% +8.7%
FTrt	22 23.4 5 25.9	SAS 13.4 DEN 26.0 +12.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	3 68.5% 4 68.3%	SAS 62.8% DEN 63.2% +0.4%
STL %	14 8.2% 19 7.9%	SAS 5.7% DEN 6.7% +1.0%
BLK %	5 10.5% 21 9.0%	SAS 9.6% +1.8% DEN 7.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	18 56.3% 2 58.8%	SAS 53.3% +4.7% DEN 48.6%
Rim FG%	14 63.9% 7 66.2%	SAS 64.7% +14.7% DEN 50.0%
Mid FG%	20 41.8% 8 45.5%	SAS 44.1% DEN 46.4% +2.3%
3P %	20 35.7% 5 37.6%	SAS 37.0% +7.5% DEN 29.5%
FT %	21 77.4% 23 77.0%	SAS 76.9% +8.9% DEN 68.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	8 33.7% 1 38.3%	SAS 17.5% DEN 25.0% +7.5%
Mid Att. %	4 22.2% 13 26.1%	SAS 35.1% DEN 29.2% −5.9%
3P Att. %	8 44.1% 30 35.6%	SAS 47.4% +1.6% DEN 45.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	SAS	DEN
Possessions	105	105
Possession Minutes	23.7	24.4
Points	113	106
Rebounds	52	58
Assists	27	24
Steals	6	7
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	12 (0)
Fouls	17	12
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (2)	14 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	44 (2)	44 (2)
Field Goals	43-97	38-96
At-the-Rim FG	11-17	12-24
Midrange FG	15-34	13-28
2-Point FG	26-51	25-52
3-Point FG	17-46	13-44
Free Throws	10-13	17-25
Fast Break Pts	15	14
2nd Chance Pts	10	9
Points in Paint	40	48
Pts off Turnovers	16	9
Bench Points	47	23
Biggest Lead	20	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg