Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, April 3, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Grizzlies	60%	115	110	112.2	98	109.9
	12	Heat	40%	111	108	109.1	99	89.3

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+13

-18

MIA

+19

-11

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.18 59.1%

MIA

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	36.8	13	59%	4	1	1	2	5	5	1	3	0-1	0%	2-6	33%	3-5	60%
Desmond Bane #22 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 27	36.4	17	34%	9	6	1	0	0	2	2	7	4-4	100%	5-14	36%	1-9	11%
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	32.4	30	63%	5	3	1	0	4	4	2	3	5-6	83%	8-15	53%	3-7	43%
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 23	27.7	8	100%	13	1	0	1	3	1	2	11	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	26.1	13	81%	7	3	0	0	1	1	2	5	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	2-4	50%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 24	29.7	9	64%	8	2	2	0	2	1	2	6	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 24	26.8	17	85%	1	7	2	1	2	4	0	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	3-4	75%
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 29	22.3	3	50%	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Lamar Stevens #8 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 28	1.8	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Yuki Kawamura #17 · PG · 5'7" 159 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; PCL Sprain
Zyon Pullin #2 · SG · 6'4" 206 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Patellar; Tendon Surgery Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	59%	49	24	8	4	18	18	12	37	14-17	82%	24-47	51%	16-38	42%

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8 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	36.8	13	59%	4	1	1	2	5	5	1	3	0-1	0%	2-6	33%	3-5	60%
Desmond Bane #22 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 27	36.4	17	34%	9	6	1	0	0	2	2	7	4-4	100%	5-14	36%	1-9	11%
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	32.4	30	63%	5	3	1	0	4	4	2	3	5-6	83%	8-15	53%	3-7	43%
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 23	27.7	8	100%	13	1	0	1	3	1	2	11	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	26.1	13	81%	7	3	0	0	1	1	2	5	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	2-4	50%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 24	29.7	9	64%	8	2	2	0	2	1	2	6	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 24	26.8	17	85%	1	7	2	1	2	4	0	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	3-4	75%
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 29	22.3	3	50%	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Lamar Stevens #8 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 28	1.8	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Yuki Kawamura #17 · PG · 5'7" 159 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; PCL Sprain
Zyon Pullin #2 · SG · 6'4" 206 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Patellar; Tendon Surgery Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	59%	49	24	8	4	18	18	12	37	14-17	82%	24-47	51%	16-38	42%

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12 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	37.1	35	67%	9	4	0	1	3	2	2	7	7-7	100%	8-16	50%	4-7	57%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	35.4	13	46%	15	0	0	3	0	3	5	10	1-2	50%	3-9	33%	2-4	50%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	34.0	26	48%	7	5	1	2	2	3	3	4	2-2	100%	9-22	41%	2-4	50%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	23.2	3	38%	2	3	4	1	1	3	1	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	16.1	2	17%	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-5	0%

Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	37.0	11	61%	4	7	3	0	2	3	0	4	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	3-5	60%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	26.2	6	75%	3	2	0	0	1	3	2	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	20.2	6	33%	2	2	2	1	0	3	1	1	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	0-3	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	10.8	6	60%	3	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-3	67%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tendinopathy
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	NWT - Not With Team \| Stomach; Gastroenteritis
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	51%	47	24	11	8	11	21	15	32	16-19	84%	25-62	40%	14-33	42%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.18 59.1%

MIA

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

56%

MIA

48%

Midrange

MEM

45%

MIA

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

24.0

42%

63%

MIA

21.0

42%

64%

Free Throws

MEM

82%

MIA

84%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Morant	30	63%	15.0 / 24
D. Bane	17	34%	8.5 / 25
S. Pippen	17	85%	8.5 / 10
J. Jackson	13	59%	6.5 / 11
J. Wells	13	81%	6.5 / 8
S. Aldama	9	64%	4.5 / 7
Z. Edey	8	100%	4.0 / 4
L. Kennard	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	35	67%	17.5 / 26
B. Adebayo	26	48%	13.0 / 27
K. Ware	13	46%	6.5 / 14
D. Mitchell	11	61%	5.5 / 9
H. Highsmith	6	75%	3.0 / 4
K. Anderson	6	33%	3.0 / 9
D. Robinson	6	60%	3.0 / 5
P. Larsson	3	38%	1.5 / 4
A. Burks	2	17%	1.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	6 117.2 21 112.4	MEM 112.2 +3.2 MIA 109.1
Pace	1 103.7 27 97.2	MEM 109.9 +20.5 MIA 89.3
Avg. Poss. Time	28 13.4 9 14.9	MEM 13.1 −3.0 MIA 16.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	12 55.4% 19 54.4%	MEM 56.5% +8.1% MIA 48.4%
TO %	25 14.4% 8 12.8%	MEM 16.3% MIA 9.6% −6.7%
ORB %	3 28.7% 27 22.3%	MEM 27.3% MIA 28.8% +1.5%
FTrt	10 24.9 24 23.2	MEM 20.0 MIA 20.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	15 63.5% 10 65.3%	MEM 60.0% MIA 61.5% +1.5%
STL %	7 8.5% 12 8.3%	MEM 8.2% MIA 11.1% +2.9%
BLK %	3 10.8% 30 7.6%	MEM 6.5% MIA 17.0% +10.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.1 and 2.1.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	10 57.4% 19 56.0%	MEM 59.1% +8.6% MIA 50.5%
Rim FG%	11 65.3% 22 62.5%	MEM 55.6% +7.6% MIA 48.0%
Mid FG%	9 45.4% 12 44.4%	MEM 45.0% +9.9% MIA 35.1%
3P %	12 36.7% 11 36.7%	MEM 42.1% MIA 42.4% +0.3%
FT %	12 78.6% 8 79.1%	MEM 82.4% MIA 84.2% +1.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	22 30.5% 25 29.6%	MEM 31.8% +5.4% MIA 26.3%
Mid Att. %	26 29.0% 20 27.5%	MEM 23.5% −15.4% MIA 38.9%
3P Att. %	20 40.6% 12 42.9%	MEM 44.7% +10.0% MIA 34.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	MIA
Possessions	98	99
Possession Minutes	21.4	26.6
Points	110	108
Rebounds	49	47
Assists	24	24
Steals	8	11
Blocks	4	8
Turnovers (Team)	18 (0)	11 (0)
Fouls	18	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (1)	15 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (2)	32 (2)
Field Goals	40-85	39-95
At-the-Rim FG	15-27	12-25
Midrange FG	9-20	13-37
2-Point FG	24-47	25-62
3-Point FG	16-38	14-33
Free Throws	14-17	16-19
Fast Break Pts	21	22
2nd Chance Pts	13	16
Points in Paint	44	42
Pts off Turnovers	14	19
Bench Points	29	29
Biggest Lead	8	9

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg