Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, April 7, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	29	76ers	25%	102	105	107.1	98	101.9
	18	Heat	75%	112	117	120.6	97	93.5

Scoring Opportunities

PHI

+17

-13

102

MIA

+13

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

PHI

1.03 51.5%

MIA

1.21 60.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

29 Philadelphia 76ers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Lonnie Walker IV #16 · SF · 6'5" 196 · 26	39.5	29	73%	1	2	0	0	2	3	0	1	3-4	75%	4-5	80%	6-13	46%
Quentin Grimes #5 · PG · 6'5" 207 · 25	37.9	29	52%	8	6	1	0	3	3	1	7	3-6	50%	7-14	50%	4-11	36%
Adem Bona #30 · C · 6'10" 235 · 22	34.6	16	62%	11	1	1	2	4	3	5	6	2-4	50%	7-11	64%	0-0	-
Jared Butler #12 · SG · 6'3" 193 · 25	25.2	8	57%	3	4	4	1	0	1	0	3	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Marcus Bagley #35 · PF · 6'6" 217 · 23	23.4	6	33%	6	0	1	1	1	1	2	4	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	0-2	0%

Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 39	20.2	5	50%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Jalen Hood-Schifino #17 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 22	20.0	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Ricky Council IV #14 · SF · 6'6" 207 · 24	19.4	5	31%	5	2	0	0	3	0	3	2	3-5	60%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Colin Castleton #18 · C · 6'10" 250 · 25	13.3	4	50%	6	3	0	0	0	0	3	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Alex Reese #65 · PF · 6'9" 245 · 26	6.3	3	38%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Andre Drummond #1 · C · 6'11" 279 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Toe; Sprain
Justin Edwards #19 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Rib; Contusion
Jeff Dowtin Jr. #11 · PG · 6'3" 177 · 28	INACTIVE
Kelly Oubre Jr. #9 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Joel Embiid #21 · C · 7'0" 270 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Paul George #8 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Injury Recovery
Jared McCain #20 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Meniscus Surgery
Eric Gordon #23 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Surgery
Tyrese Maxey #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Finger; Sprain
Guerschon Yabusele #28 · C · 6'7" 265 · 29	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	52%	45	20	7	4	13	14	14	31	17-25	68%	26-50	52%	12-38	32%

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29 Philadelphia 76ers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Lonnie Walker IV #16 · SF · 6'5" 196 · 26	39.5	29	73%	1	2	0	0	2	3	0	1	3-4	75%	4-5	80%	6-13	46%
Quentin Grimes #5 · PG · 6'5" 207 · 25	37.9	29	52%	8	6	1	0	3	3	1	7	3-6	50%	7-14	50%	4-11	36%
Adem Bona #30 · C · 6'10" 235 · 22	34.6	16	62%	11	1	1	2	4	3	5	6	2-4	50%	7-11	64%	0-0	-
Jared Butler #12 · SG · 6'3" 193 · 25	25.2	8	57%	3	4	4	1	0	1	0	3	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Marcus Bagley #35 · PF · 6'6" 217 · 23	23.4	6	33%	6	0	1	1	1	1	2	4	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	0-2	0%

Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 39	20.2	5	50%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Jalen Hood-Schifino #17 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 22	20.0	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Ricky Council IV #14 · SF · 6'6" 207 · 24	19.4	5	31%	5	2	0	0	3	0	3	2	3-5	60%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Colin Castleton #18 · C · 6'10" 250 · 25	13.3	4	50%	6	3	0	0	0	0	3	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Alex Reese #65 · PF · 6'9" 245 · 26	6.3	3	38%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Andre Drummond #1 · C · 6'11" 279 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Toe; Sprain
Justin Edwards #19 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Rib; Contusion
Jeff Dowtin Jr. #11 · PG · 6'3" 177 · 28	INACTIVE
Kelly Oubre Jr. #9 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Joel Embiid #21 · C · 7'0" 270 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Paul George #8 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Injury Recovery
Jared McCain #20 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Meniscus Surgery
Eric Gordon #23 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Surgery
Tyrese Maxey #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Finger; Sprain
Guerschon Yabusele #28 · C · 6'7" 265 · 29	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	52%	45	20	7	4	13	14	14	31	17-25	68%	26-50	52%	12-38	32%

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18 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	34.6	19	53%	17	2	1	1	0	2	4	13	3-4	75%	8-14	57%	0-2	0%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	32.7	20	67%	5	2	1	0	7	1	0	5	2-3	67%	6-10	60%	2-4	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · PF · 6'5" 220 · 28	28.9	9	45%	3	0	0	0	1	2	2	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-8	38%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 24	26.2	12	75%	3	2	3	0	0	1	0	3	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	15.0	11	61%	0	2	0	0	3	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-6	50%

Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	35.5	12	46%	4	9	1	1	1	5	1	3	2-2	100%	5-11	45%	0-1	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	25.6	21	131%	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	5-6	83%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	25.2	8	67%	8	6	0	2	1	1	1	7	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	14.8	5	36%	5	2	1	1	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Back; Spasms
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tendinopathy
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Discomfort
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	60%	47	26	7	6	13	17	10	37	11-15	73%	29-53	55%	16-36	44%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	PHI	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	PHI	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

PHI

1.03 51.5%

MIA

1.21 60.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

PHI

65%

MIA

61%

Midrange

PHI

38%

MIA

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

PHI

18.0

32%

47%

MIA

24.0

44%

67%

Free Throws

PHI

68%

MIA

73%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

76ers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Walker IV	29	73%	14.5 / 20
Q. Grimes	29	52%	14.5 / 28
A. Bona	16	62%	8.0 / 13
J. Butler	8	57%	4.0 / 7
M. Bagley	6	33%	3.0 / 9
K. Lowry	5	50%	2.5 / 5
R. Council	5	31%	2.5 / 8
C. Castleton	4	50%	2.0 / 4
A. Reese	3	38%	1.5 / 4
J. Hood-Schifino	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Robinson	21	131%	10.5 / 8
T. Herro	20	67%	10.0 / 15
K. Ware	19	53%	9.5 / 18
P. Larsson	12	75%	6.0 / 8
D. Mitchell	12	46%	6.0 / 13
A. Burks	11	61%	5.5 / 9
H. Highsmith	9	45%	4.5 / 10
K. Anderson	8	67%	4.0 / 6
J. Jaquez	5	36%	2.5 / 7
J. Christopher	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	22 110.9 21 112.4	PHI 107.1 MIA 120.6 +13.5
Pace	22 98.2 27 97.2	PHI 101.9 +8.4 MIA 93.5
Avg. Poss. Time	10 14.8 9 14.9	PHI 14.1 −1.3 MIA 15.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	22 52.7% 19 54.4%	PHI 50.0% MIA 59.6% +9.6%
TO %	9 13.0% 8 12.8%	PHI 11.6% −0.4% MIA 12.0%
ORB %	22 23.4% 27 22.3%	PHI 27.5% +3.1% MIA 24.4%
FTrt	6 25.7 24 23.2	PHI 28.4 +11.5 MIA 16.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	29 58.4% 10 65.3%	PHI 52.6% MIA 57.8% +5.2%
STL %	5 9.3% 12 8.3%	PHI 7.1% MIA 7.2% +0.1%
BLK %	19 9.1% 30 7.6%	PHI 7.5% MIA 12.0% +4.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	22 54.8% 19 56.0%	PHI 51.5% MIA 60.3% +8.8%
Rim FG%	23 61.8% 22 62.5%	PHI 65.4% +4.1% MIA 61.3%
Mid FG%	19 42.0% 12 44.4%	PHI 37.5% MIA 45.5% +8.0%
3P %	27 34.1% 11 36.7%	PHI 31.6% MIA 44.4% +12.8%
FT %	15 78.0% 8 79.1%	PHI 68.0% MIA 73.3% +5.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.0% 25 29.6%	PHI 29.5% MIA 34.8% +5.3%
Mid Att. %	8 23.5% 20 27.5%	PHI 27.3% MIA 24.7% −2.6%
3P Att. %	14 42.5% 12 42.9%	PHI 43.2% +2.7% MIA 40.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	PHI	MIA
Possessions	98	97
Possession Minutes	23.1	24.9
Points	105	117
Rebounds	45	47
Assists	20	26
Steals	7	7
Blocks	4	6
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	13 (0)
Fouls	14	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (3)	10 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (2)	37 (0)
Field Goals	38-88	45-89
At-the-Rim FG	17-26	19-31
Midrange FG	9-24	10-22
2-Point FG	26-50	29-53
3-Point FG	12-38	16-36
Free Throws	17-25	11-15
Fast Break Pts	12	21
2nd Chance Pts	23	13
Points in Paint	48	54
Pts off Turnovers	16	18
Bench Points	17	46
Biggest Lead	6	16

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg