Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, April 13, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	27	Wizards	28%	102	119	116.7	102	100.8
	13	Heat	72%	111	118	114.6	103	105.5

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

-10

100

MIA

+11

-8

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.19 59.5%

MIA

1.11 55.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

27 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	48.0	14	44%	1	8	1	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	4-11	36%	2-5	40%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	40.8	15	42%	7	9	1	0	1	3	1	6	0-0	-	3-9	33%	3-9	33%
Justin Champagnie #9 · PF · 6'6" 206 · 24	39.4	27	79%	4	2	1	2	1	1	2	2	0-2	0%	6-7	86%	5-9	56%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	15.5	10	63%	8	4	1	0	0	2	1	7	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	1-2	50%
Kyshawn George #18 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	15.5	5	63%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%

Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	42.1	20	50%	10	4	0	0	2	2	1	9	2-4	50%	9-14	64%	0-4	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	38.7	28	93%	11	5	0	1	4	4	1	10	6-7	86%	5-6	83%	4-6	67%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	INACTIVE
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	INACTIVE
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Contusion
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	60%	43	33	4	3	10	14	6	37	11-17	65%	30-53	57%	16-37	43%

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27 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	48.0	14	44%	1	8	1	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	4-11	36%	2-5	40%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	40.8	15	42%	7	9	1	0	1	3	1	6	0-0	-	3-9	33%	3-9	33%
Justin Champagnie #9 · PF · 6'6" 206 · 24	39.4	27	79%	4	2	1	2	1	1	2	2	0-2	0%	6-7	86%	5-9	56%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	15.5	10	63%	8	4	1	0	0	2	1	7	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	1-2	50%
Kyshawn George #18 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	15.5	5	63%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%

Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	42.1	20	50%	10	4	0	0	2	2	1	9	2-4	50%	9-14	64%	0-4	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	38.7	28	93%	11	5	0	1	4	4	1	10	6-7	86%	5-6	83%	4-6	67%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	INACTIVE
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	INACTIVE
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Contusion
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	60%	43	33	4	3	10	14	6	37	11-17	65%	30-53	57%	16-37	43%

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13 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 24	40.5	41	73%	10	7	0	0	3	2	1	9	5-7	71%	15-19	79%	2-6	33%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	22.0	12	60%	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	2-5	40%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 31	19.6	6	50%	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-6	33%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	19.6	4	50%	4	8	1	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	19.6	13	54%	4	1	1	1	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	5-9	56%	1-3	33%

Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	34.5	2	11%	6	1	0	0	1	0	3	3	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-4	0%
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	28.4	17	50%	3	3	4	2	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	6-11	55%	1-5	20%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	28.1	6	38%	6	4	0	3	0	1	1	5	2-2	100%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	27.8	17	94%	8	1	2	0	1	4	3	5	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	2-3	67%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Discomfort
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Discomfort
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tendinopathy
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	DND – Rest
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	DND – Rest
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	56%	46	28	8	6	8	12	9	37	10-12	83%	39-66	59%	10-32	31%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.19 59.5%

MIA

1.11 55.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

73%

MIA

72%

Midrange

WAS

41%

MIA

26%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

24.0

43%

65%

MIA

15.0

31%

47%

Free Throws

WAS

65%

MIA

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Vukcevic	28	93%	14.0 / 15
J. Champagnie	27	79%	13.5 / 17
C. Jones	20	50%	10.0 / 20
B. Carrington	15	42%	7.5 / 18
A. Johnson	14	44%	7.0 / 16
A. Sarr	10	63%	5.0 / 8
K. George	5	63%	2.5 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jaquez	41	73%	20.5 / 28
J. Christopher	17	50%	8.5 / 17
K. Johnson	17	94%	8.5 / 9
K. Ware	13	54%	6.5 / 12
H. Highsmith	12	60%	6.0 / 10
D. Robinson	6	50%	3.0 / 6
K. Anderson	6	38%	3.0 / 8
D. Mitchell	4	50%	2.0 / 4
T. Rozier	2	11%	1.0 / 9

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	30 105.8 21 112.4	WAS 116.7 +2.1 MIA 114.6
Pace	4 101.8 27 97.2	WAS 100.8 MIA 105.5 +4.7
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 9 14.9	WAS 14.3 MIA 13.7 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 51.2% 19 54.4%	WAS 60.0% +4.9% MIA 55.1%
TO %	27 14.6% 8 12.8%	WAS 10.1% MIA 7.2% −2.9%
ORB %	25 22.7% 27 22.3%	WAS 14.0% MIA 19.6% +5.6%
FTrt	26 22.9 24 23.2	WAS 18.9 +6.7 MIA 12.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	12 63.7% 10 65.3%	WAS 71.7% +14.6% MIA 57.1%
STL %	25 7.4% 12 8.3%	WAS 3.9% MIA 7.8% +3.9%
BLK %	12 9.6% 30 7.6%	WAS 4.5% MIA 11.3% +6.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 53.2% 19 56.0%	WAS 59.5% +3.8% MIA 55.7%
Rim FG%	17 63.7% 22 62.5%	WAS 73.1% +0.8% MIA 72.3%
Mid FG%	30 38.0% 12 44.4%	WAS 40.7% +14.4% MIA 26.3%
3P %	29 33.5% 11 36.7%	WAS 43.2% +11.9% MIA 31.3%
FT %	16 77.8% 8 79.1%	WAS 64.7% MIA 83.3% +18.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.5% 25 29.6%	WAS 28.9% MIA 48.0% +19.1%
Mid Att. %	11 25.9% 20 27.5%	WAS 30.0% MIA 19.4% −10.6%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 12 42.9%	WAS 41.1% +8.5% MIA 32.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	MIA
Possessions	102	103
Possession Minutes	24.3	23.4
Points	119	118
Rebounds	43	46
Assists	33	28
Steals	4	8
Blocks	3	6
Turnovers (Team)	10 (1)	8 (0)
Fouls	14	12
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (2)	9 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (1)	37 (1)
Field Goals	46-90	49-98
At-the-Rim FG	19-26	34-47
Midrange FG	11-27	5-19
2-Point FG	30-53	39-66
3-Point FG	16-37	10-32
Free Throws	11-17	10-12
Fast Break Pts	11	25
2nd Chance Pts	6	8
Points in Paint	46	76
Pts off Turnovers	11	13
Bench Points	48	42
Biggest Lead	12	7

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg