Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	6	Rockets	30%	105	124	108.8	114	85.6
	1	Thunder	70%	111	125	112.6	111	102.4

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+27

-22

119

OKC

100

+17

-11

117

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.05 52.5%

OKC

1.07 53.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

6 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Alperen Sengun #28 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 23	48.9	39	67%	11	7	2	1	4	5	4	7	10-11	91%	7-16	44%	5-8	63%
Kevin Durant #7 · SG · 6'11" 240 · 37	47.0	23	64%	9	3	0	0	4	6	0	9	5-6	83%	9-12	75%	0-4	0%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · SF · 6'11" 220 · 22	41.8	16	53%	5	0	1	0	0	4	3	2	0-0	-	5-9	56%	2-6	33%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	38.6	18	53%	4	5	1	1	4	3	2	2	2-2	100%	8-10	80%	0-7	0%
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	36.5	4	40%	13	3	0	0	3	4	5	8	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	27.8	9	38%	2	4	1	1	2	1	1	1	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	2-7	29%
Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	21.6	3	25%	6	0	0	1	4	1	0	6	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	20.0	8	67%	2	1	0	1	0	2	1	1	5-6	83%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 31	7.9	4	100%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevon Harris #00 · SG · 6'5" 216 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Surgery
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Isaiah Crawford #24 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	290	124	53%	52	23	6	5	22	26	16	36	27-31	87%	32-58	55%	11-39	28%

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6 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Alperen Sengun #28 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 23	48.9	39	67%	11	7	2	1	4	5	4	7	10-11	91%	7-16	44%	5-8	63%
Kevin Durant #7 · SG · 6'11" 240 · 37	47.0	23	64%	9	3	0	0	4	6	0	9	5-6	83%	9-12	75%	0-4	0%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · SF · 6'11" 220 · 22	41.8	16	53%	5	0	1	0	0	4	3	2	0-0	-	5-9	56%	2-6	33%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	38.6	18	53%	4	5	1	1	4	3	2	2	2-2	100%	8-10	80%	0-7	0%
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	36.5	4	40%	13	3	0	0	3	4	5	8	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	27.8	9	38%	2	4	1	1	2	1	1	1	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	2-7	29%
Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	21.6	3	25%	6	0	0	1	4	1	0	6	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	20.0	8	67%	2	1	0	1	0	2	1	1	5-6	83%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 31	7.9	4	100%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevon Harris #00 · SG · 6'5" 216 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Surgery
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Isaiah Crawford #24 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	290	124	53%	52	23	6	5	22	26	16	36	27-31	87%	32-58	55%	11-39	28%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	47.2	35	53%	5	5	2	2	3	2	0	5	10-14	71%	11-17	65%	1-9	11%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	45.3	6	23%	6	5	1	0	1	4	2	4	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-8	0%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	41.6	14	64%	7	5	4	0	2	3	1	6	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	3-8	38%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 23	38.5	28	78%	7	2	0	0	3	6	2	5	4-4	100%	9-12	75%	2-5	40%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 27	36.9	6	50%	8	5	2	0	1	6	5	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%

Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	30.2	8	44%	2	3	2	1	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-6	33%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	20.5	10	63%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-5	40%
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	14.6	16	67%	2	2	0	1	0	2	1	1	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	3-6	50%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 23	12.9	2	20%	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	2.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	0.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Surgical Recovery
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	290	125	53%	38	29	12	4	11	27	11	27	20-25	80%	33-52	63%	13-52	25%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	OKC

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.05 52.5%

OKC

1.07 53.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

70%

OKC

83%

Midrange

HOU

46%

OKC

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

16.5

28%

42%

OKC

19.5

25%

38%

Free Throws

HOU

87%

OKC

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sengun	39	67%	19.5 / 29
K. Durant	23	64%	11.5 / 18
A. Thompson	18	53%	9.0 / 17
J. Smith	16	53%	8.0 / 15
R. Sheppard	9	38%	4.5 / 12
J. Okogie	8	67%	4.0 / 6
S. Adams	4	40%	2.0 / 5
C. Capela	4	100%	2.0 / 2
T. Eason	3	25%	1.5 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	35	53%	17.5 / 33
C. Holmgren	28	78%	14.0 / 18
A. Mitchell	16	67%	8.0 / 12
C. Wallace	14	64%	7.0 / 11
A. Wiggins	10	63%	5.0 / 8
A. Caruso	8	44%	4.0 / 9
L. Dort	6	23%	3.0 / 13
I. Hartenstein	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Williams	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	8 117.5 7 117.6	HOU 108.8 OKC 112.6 +3.8
Pace	29 96.9 15 100.3	HOU 85.6 OKC 102.4 +16.8
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.8 20 14.1	HOU 16.8 OKC 14.1 −2.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 54.2% 4 56.1%	HOU 50.0% OKC 50.5% +0.5%
TO %	25 14.7% 1 11.8%	HOU 18.4% OKC 9.4% −9.0%
ORB %	1 34.8% 28 22.3%	HOU 37.2% +13.8% OKC 23.4%
FTrt	18 26.0 17 26.1	HOU 32.0 +8.0 OKC 24.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.1% 25 59.8%	HOU 53.5% OKC 63.0% +9.5%
STL %	9 8.7% 4 9.6%	HOU 5.3% OKC 10.8% +5.5%
BLK %	4 10.9% 2 11.0%	HOU 9.6% +2.7% OKC 6.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.81 and 2.81.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 56.1% 4 58.5%	HOU 52.5% OKC 53.4% +0.9%
Rim FG%	13 64.8% 11 65.2%	HOU 69.6% OKC 82.6% +13.0%
Mid FG%	9 44.3% 1 47.6%	HOU 45.7% OKC 48.3% +2.6%
3P %	10 36.4% 9 36.5%	HOU 28.2% +3.2% OKC 25.0%
FT %	25 76.3% 3 81.7%	HOU 87.1% +7.1% OKC 80.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	20 30.7% 16 31.3%	HOU 23.7% +1.6% OKC 22.1%
Mid Att. %	29 34.2% 15 26.1%	HOU 36.1% OKC 27.9% −8.2%
3P Att. %	28 35.0% 13 42.6%	HOU 40.2% OKC 50.0% +9.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	HOU	OKC
Possessions	114	111
Possession Minutes	32.0	26.0
Points	124	125
Rebounds	52	38
Assists	23	29
Steals	6	12
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	22 (3)	11 (1)
Fouls	26	27
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (11)	11 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (7)	27 (2)
Field Goals	43-97	46-104
At-the-Rim FG	16-23	19-23
Midrange FG	16-35	14-29
2-Point FG	32-58	33-52
3-Point FG	11-39	13-52
Free Throws	27-31	20-25
Fast Break Pts	2	16
2nd Chance Pts	24	12
Points in Paint	44	50
Pts off Turnovers	12	28
Bench Points	24	36
Biggest Lead	12	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg