Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Grizzlies	44%	116	119	119.0	100	103.3
	17	Spurs	56%	118	126	127.3	99	95.9

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+17

-15

102

SAS

+14

-6

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.18 58.9%

SAS

1.17 58.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	29.7	19	68%	15	1	1	1	2	5	4	11	3-4	75%	8-12	67%	0-0	-
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	28.8	9	35%	3	0	0	0	3	2	0	3	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	0-5	0%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	28.3	20	83%	1	2	0	0	0	3	0	1	6-8	75%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · PG · 6'4" 205 · 25	26.7	12	50%	7	7	1	3	1	0	0	7	0-0	-	3-7	43%	2-5	40%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	26.6	7	35%	6	2	2	0	5	5	0	6	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-4	0%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	24.4	4	33%	3	5	0	1	0	3	1	2	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	21.9	21	117%	1	6	0	0	0	2	0	1	6-6	100%	3-4	75%	3-4	75%
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	17.9	13	130%	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	2	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	2-2	100%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	15.3	10	63%	6	0	0	0	0	3	4	2	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	13.1	2	20%	3	2	0	1	4	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	7.5	2	25%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kobe Bufkin #4 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery Recovery
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Toe; Turf Toe
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	59%	50	28	4	6	15	28	9	41	20-24	83%	36-64	56%	9-26	35%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

14 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	29.7	19	68%	15	1	1	1	2	5	4	11	3-4	75%	8-12	67%	0-0	-
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	28.8	9	35%	3	0	0	0	3	2	0	3	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	0-5	0%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	28.3	20	83%	1	2	0	0	0	3	0	1	6-8	75%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · PG · 6'4" 205 · 25	26.7	12	50%	7	7	1	3	1	0	0	7	0-0	-	3-7	43%	2-5	40%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	26.6	7	35%	6	2	2	0	5	5	0	6	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-4	0%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	24.4	4	33%	3	5	0	1	0	3	1	2	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	21.9	21	117%	1	6	0	0	0	2	0	1	6-6	100%	3-4	75%	3-4	75%
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	17.9	13	130%	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	2	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	2-2	100%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	15.3	10	63%	6	0	0	0	0	3	4	2	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	13.1	2	20%	3	2	0	1	4	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	7.5	2	25%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kobe Bufkin #4 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery Recovery
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Toe; Turf Toe
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	59%	50	28	4	6	15	28	9	41	20-24	83%	36-64	56%	9-26	35%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

17 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	35.8	31	70%	5	5	1	0	1	0	1	4	4-5	80%	3-8	38%	7-12	58%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	35.0	7	35%	6	2	0	1	1	5	0	6	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-6	17%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	31.1	29	60%	4	4	3	0	3	3	2	2	9-10	90%	4-11	36%	4-8	50%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	27.9	4	40%	6	4	1	5	0	1	4	2	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	27.9	12	50%	5	2	0	1	0	5	0	5	2-2	100%	2-7	29%	2-4	50%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	27.9	11	61%	6	4	0	0	1	3	1	5	2-4	50%	3-6	50%	1-2	50%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	20.6	15	58%	1	6	0	0	0	1	1	0	4-7	57%	4-8	50%	1-2	50%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	18.4	11	92%	6	1	2	0	0	1	2	4	1-1	100%	5-5	100%	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	11.2	6	100%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	2.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip Flexor; Strain
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Strain
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	58%	40	28	7	7	6	22	11	29	24-31	77%	24-53	45%	18-39	46%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.18 58.9%

SAS

1.17 58.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

61%

SAS

52%

Midrange

MEM

52%

SAS

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

13.5

35%

52%

SAS

27.0

46%

69%

Free Throws

MEM

83%

SAS

77%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Spencer	21	117%	10.5 / 9
J. Wells	20	83%	10.0 / 12
Z. Edey	19	68%	9.5 / 14
J. Konchar	13	130%	6.5 / 5
V. Williams	12	50%	6.0 / 12
J. Landale	10	63%	5.0 / 8
C. Coward	9	35%	4.5 / 13
J. Jackson	7	35%	3.5 / 10
S. Aldama	4	33%	2.0 / 6
K. Caldwell-Pope	2	20%	1.0 / 5
O. Prosper	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
H. Barnes	31	70%	15.5 / 22
D. Fox	29	60%	14.5 / 24
D. Harper	15	58%	7.5 / 13
D. Vassell	12	50%	6.0 / 12
K. Johnson	11	61%	5.5 / 9
J. Sochan	11	92%	5.5 / 6
J. Champagnie	7	35%	3.5 / 10
C. Bryant	6	100%	3.0 / 3
L. Kornet	4	40%	2.0 / 5
K. Olynyk	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	23 112.4 3 118.9	MEM 119.0 SAS 127.3 +8.3
Pace	7 101.8 13 100.5	MEM 103.3 +7.4 SAS 95.9
Avg. Poss. Time	26 13.8 18 14.2	MEM 13.9 −1.1 SAS 15.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	24 53.3% 7 55.9%	MEM 55.0% SAS 55.4% +0.4%
TO %	22 14.3% 4 12.5%	MEM 13.0% SAS 6.2% −6.8%
ORB %	19 24.7% 10 26.2%	MEM 23.7% +2.5% SAS 21.2%
FTrt	21 25.1 12 27.3	MEM 26.7 SAS 33.7 +7.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	6 67.4% 13 64.6%	MEM 62.2% SAS 66.7% +4.5%
STL %	11 8.7% 24 7.5%	MEM 4.0% SAS 7.1% +3.1%
BLK %	14 9.1% 10 10.0%	MEM 11.3% +0.4% SAS 10.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	22 55.8% 6 58.1%	MEM 58.9% +0.6% SAS 58.3%
Rim FG%	26 62.8% 9 65.8%	MEM 60.6% +9.1% SAS 51.5%
Mid FG%	11 44.2% 5 45.1%	MEM 51.6% +16.6% SAS 35.0%
3P %	22 35.3% 15 35.9%	MEM 34.6% SAS 46.2% +11.6%
FT %	9 79.3% 12 78.7%	MEM 83.3% +5.9% SAS 77.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	26 28.6% 7 34.4%	MEM 36.7% +0.8% SAS 35.9%
Mid Att. %	19 27.8% 7 23.4%	MEM 34.4% SAS 21.7% −12.7%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 15 42.2%	MEM 28.9% SAS 42.4% +13.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	SAS
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	119	126
Rebounds	50	40
Assists	28	28
Steals	4	7
Blocks	6	7
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	6 (1)
Fouls	28	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (8)	11 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (0)	29 (3)
Field Goals	45-90	42-92
At-the-Rim FG	20-33	17-33
Midrange FG	16-31	7-20
2-Point FG	36-64	24-53
3-Point FG	9-26	18-39
Free Throws	20-24	24-31
Fast Break Pts	18	17
2nd Chance Pts	11	17
Points in Paint	58	42
Pts off Turnovers	6	9
Bench Points	52	43
Biggest Lead	7	7

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg