Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Nuggets	72%	122	135	133.7	101	93.0
	25	Pacers	28%	114	120	120.0	100	109.4

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-10

IND

+10

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.38 68.9%

IND

1.24 61.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	36.4	11	55%	7	0	1	3	0	4	0	7	4-5	80%	2-5	40%	1-3	33%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	36.1	52	96%	6	4	1	0	1	0	0	6	4-5	80%	9-14	64%	10-11	91%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	35.3	24	60%	8	13	0	1	4	2	1	7	5-5	100%	8-13	62%	1-4	25%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SG · 6'8" 210 · 30	33.7	9	56%	4	4	1	0	1	4	1	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	2-3	67%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	17.4	1	25%	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	3	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-1	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	27.2	11	69%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	26.2	14	88%	4	0	0	1	2	3	2	2	1-2	50%	5-6	83%	1-1	100%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	11.6	2	100%	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	11.0	9	64%	3	0	1	0	1	3	0	3	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	1.7	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	135	69%	38	23	6	5	10	21	5	33	20-26	77%	32-55	58%	17-28	61%

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	36.4	11	55%	7	0	1	3	0	4	0	7	4-5	80%	2-5	40%	1-3	33%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	36.1	52	96%	6	4	1	0	1	0	0	6	4-5	80%	9-14	64%	10-11	91%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	35.3	24	60%	8	13	0	1	4	2	1	7	5-5	100%	8-13	62%	1-4	25%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SG · 6'8" 210 · 30	33.7	9	56%	4	4	1	0	1	4	1	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	2-3	67%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	17.4	1	25%	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	3	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-1	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	27.2	11	69%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	26.2	14	88%	4	0	0	1	2	3	2	2	1-2	50%	5-6	83%	1-1	100%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	11.6	2	100%	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	11.0	9	64%	3	0	1	0	1	3	0	3	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	1.7	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	135	69%	38	23	6	5	10	21	5	33	20-26	77%	32-55	58%	17-28	61%

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25 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	33.7	23	57%	3	4	0	0	1	5	0	3	6-8	75%	4-11	36%	3-5	60%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	28.3	16	57%	3	7	0	1	1	1	1	2	4-6	67%	3-8	38%	2-3	67%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 23	28.2	15	68%	7	2	0	0	4	2	2	5	3-3	100%	3-7	43%	2-3	67%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	17.9	14	117%	5	2	2	0	1	1	0	5	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	3-3	100%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	17.7	3	25%	1	2	0	2	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-6	17%

Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	21.6	11	69%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Garrison Mathews #24 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 29	19.8	9	90%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	16.6	6	75%	6	0	1	0	0	3	2	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	16.5	14	70%	1	6	3	1	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	16.4	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	13.6	7	70%	4	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	5-6	83%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl #25 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	3.2	2	25%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	3.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	3.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee MCL; Sprain
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Reaction
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Stress Reaction
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	62%	38	24	6	5	12	24	8	30	23-29	79%	29-53	55%	13-28	46%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	IND
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	IND

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.38 68.9%

IND

1.24 61.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

67%

IND

82%

Midrange

DEN

50%

IND

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

25.5

61%

91%

IND

19.5

46%

70%

Free Throws

DEN

77%

IND

79%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	52	96%	26.0 / 27
N. Jokić	24	60%	12.0 / 20
B. Brown	14	88%	7.0 / 8
P. Watson	11	55%	5.5 / 10
T. Hardaway	11	69%	5.5 / 8
C. Johnson	9	56%	4.5 / 8
J. Valančiūnas	9	64%	4.5 / 7
Z. Nnaji	2	100%	1.0 / 1
C. Jones	2	50%	1.0 / 2
S. Jones	1	25%	0.5 / 2
J. Pickett	0	-	0.0 / 1
H. Tyson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	23	57%	11.5 / 20
A. Nembhard	16	57%	8.0 / 14
B. Mathurin	15	68%	7.5 / 11
B. Sheppard	14	117%	7.0 / 6
T. McConnell	14	70%	7.0 / 10
J. Walker	11	69%	5.5 / 8
G. Mathews	9	90%	4.5 / 5
T. Bradley	7	70%	3.5 / 5
I. Jackson	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Huff	3	25%	1.5 / 6
J. Robinson-Earl	2	25%	1.0 / 4
T. Peter	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 28 110.1	DEN 133.7 +13.7 IND 120.0
Pace	19 99.4 10 101.4	DEN 93.0 IND 109.4 +16.4
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 25 13.9	DEN 15.5 IND 13.2 −2.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 23 53.3%	DEN 69.3% +9.4% IND 59.9%
TO %	3 12.1% 14 13.6%	DEN 10.4% −0.9% IND 11.3%
ORB %	24 23.6% 29 21.7%	DEN 14.3% IND 19.5% +5.2%
FTrt	4 29.4 20 25.2	DEN 31.3 IND 35.8 +4.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 5 67.8%	DEN 46.9% IND 57.1% +10.2%
STL %	30 6.8% 28 7.2%	DEN 5.9% IND 6.0% +0.1%
BLK %	29 7.6% 26 8.1%	DEN 9.4% +0.3% IND 9.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 24 55.4%	DEN 68.9% +7.0% IND 61.9%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 25 62.9%	DEN 66.7% IND 82.4% +15.7%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 19 42.7%	DEN 50.0% +8.3% IND 41.7%
3P %	1 39.6% 18 35.6%	DEN 60.7% +14.3% IND 46.4%
FT %	5 80.8% 17 77.6%	DEN 76.9% IND 79.3% +2.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 23 30.3%	DEN 32.5% +11.5% IND 21.0%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 18 27.5%	DEN 33.7% −10.7% IND 44.4%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 14 42.2%	DEN 33.7% IND 34.6% +0.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	IND
Possessions	101	100
Possession Minutes	26.1	21.9
Points	135	120
Rebounds	38	38
Assists	23	24
Steals	6	6
Blocks	5	5
Turnovers (Team)	10 (1)	12 (0)
Fouls	21	24
Off. Rebounds (Team)	5 (3)	8 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (0)	30 (2)
Field Goals	49-83	42-81
At-the-Rim FG	18-27	14-17
Midrange FG	14-28	15-36
2-Point FG	32-55	29-53
3-Point FG	17-28	13-28
Free Throws	20-26	23-29
Fast Break Pts	21	19
2nd Chance Pts	8	14
Points in Paint	52	36
Pts off Turnovers	17	18
Bench Points	38	49
Biggest Lead	29	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg