Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, December 18, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	29	Wizards	11%	110	94	94.0	100	101.9
	5	Spurs	89%	126	119	120.2	99	97.2

Prediction updated: Dec 19, 2025 01:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+18

-12

106

SAS

+15

-14

100

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.90 44.8%

SAS

1.18 58.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 22	36.1	11	39%	6	7	2	2	1	4	1	5	1-2	50%	5-9	56%	0-4	0%
Bub Carrington #7 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 20	33.1	15	63%	5	3	1	1	2	3	1	4	0-0	-	3-5	60%	3-7	43%
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	29.1	11	46%	4	3	2	0	2	0	1	3	0-0	-	4-7	57%	1-5	20%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	24.1	18	50%	4	3	0	1	0	0	1	3	0-0	-	6-14	43%	2-4	50%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	22.6	3	19%	4	2	1	0	3	2	1	3	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-4	0%

Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	24.1	8	40%	6	2	1	0	1	1	2	4	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	2-5	40%
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	18.6	13	81%	4	5	0	0	2	6	2	2	2-4	50%	4-5	80%	1-1	100%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	17.9	5	63%	9	0	0	1	1	0	3	6	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Will Riley #27 · SF · 6'9" 180 · 20	17.4	2	20%	1	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 24	8.3	2	33%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	4.9	6	75%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
AJ Johnson #4 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	3.5	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	0.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
Malaki Branham #8 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Sprain
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Distal Phalanx Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	94	45%	46	29	10	5	12	18	13	33	9-14	64%	29-58	50%	9-36	25%

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29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 22	36.1	11	39%	6	7	2	2	1	4	1	5	1-2	50%	5-9	56%	0-4	0%
Bub Carrington #7 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 20	33.1	15	63%	5	3	1	1	2	3	1	4	0-0	-	3-5	60%	3-7	43%
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	29.1	11	46%	4	3	2	0	2	0	1	3	0-0	-	4-7	57%	1-5	20%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	24.1	18	50%	4	3	0	1	0	0	1	3	0-0	-	6-14	43%	2-4	50%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	22.6	3	19%	4	2	1	0	3	2	1	3	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-4	0%

Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	24.1	8	40%	6	2	1	0	1	1	2	4	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	2-5	40%
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	18.6	13	81%	4	5	0	0	2	6	2	2	2-4	50%	4-5	80%	1-1	100%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	17.9	5	63%	9	0	0	1	1	0	3	6	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Will Riley #27 · SF · 6'9" 180 · 20	17.4	2	20%	1	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 24	8.3	2	33%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	4.9	6	75%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
AJ Johnson #4 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	3.5	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	0.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
Malaki Branham #8 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Sprain
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Distal Phalanx Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	94	45%	46	29	10	5	12	18	13	33	9-14	64%	29-58	50%	9-36	25%

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5 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 25	26.4	18	75%	6	3	1	1	1	1	0	6	1-1	100%	4-6	67%	3-6	50%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	25.1	17	65%	2	7	0	1	3	1	0	2	2-4	50%	6-6	100%	1-5	20%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	25.0	6	30%	3	3	3	0	2	1	1	2	3-4	75%	0-4	0%	1-4	25%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	23.2	10	71%	5	2	1	2	0	2	3	2	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	18.2	2	14%	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-4	0%

Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	25.9	12	67%	7	2	0	0	1	1	2	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-9	44%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	22.6	24	86%	5	3	0	0	1	1	2	3	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	3-5	60%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	21.0	9	56%	8	1	0	0	1	2	3	5	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	17.3	15	63%	8	4	0	4	2	1	2	6	2-2	100%	5-8	63%	1-3	33%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	15.6	0	0%	2	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	8.7	5	125%	4	0	0	0	2	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	4.0	1	50%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	3.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	3.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kyle Mangas #16 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	59%	53	29	6	9	14	12	14	39	16-20	80%	29-48	60%	15-42	36%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.90 44.8%

SAS

1.18 58.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

58%

SAS

61%

Midrange

WAS

44%

SAS

59%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

13.5

25%

38%

SAS

22.5

36%

54%

Free Throws

WAS

64%

SAS

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sarr	18	50%	9.0 / 18
B. Carrington	15	63%	7.5 / 12
M. Bagley	13	81%	6.5 / 8
K. George	11	39%	5.5 / 14
C. McCollum	11	46%	5.5 / 12
T. Johnson	8	40%	4.0 / 10
T. Vukcevic	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Champagnie	5	63%	2.5 / 4
B. Coulibaly	3	19%	1.5 / 8
W. Riley	2	20%	1.0 / 5
J. Watkins	2	33%	1.0 / 3
A. Johnson	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Harper	24	86%	12.0 / 14
D. Vassell	18	75%	9.0 / 12
S. Castle	17	65%	8.5 / 13
V. Wembanyama	15	63%	7.5 / 12
J. Champagnie	12	67%	6.0 / 9
L. Kornet	10	71%	5.0 / 7
K. Johnson	9	56%	4.5 / 8
D. Fox	6	30%	3.0 / 10
C. Bryant	5	125%	2.5 / 2
H. Barnes	2	14%	1.0 / 7
J. McLaughlin	1	50%	0.5 / 1
J. Sochan	0	-	0.0 / 1
L. Waters	0	-	0.0 / 2
B. Biyombo	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	29 109.7 3 118.9	WAS 94.0 SAS 120.2 +26.2
Pace	5 102.5 13 100.5	WAS 101.9 +4.7 SAS 97.2
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 18 14.2	WAS 14.1 −0.7 SAS 14.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	21 53.5% 7 55.9%	WAS 45.2% SAS 57.2% +12.0%
TO %	26 14.7% 4 12.5%	WAS 12.3% −0.1% SAS 12.4%
ORB %	21 24.0% 10 26.2%	WAS 25.0% SAS 29.8% +4.8%
FTrt	26 23.5 12 27.3	WAS 14.9 SAS 22.2 +7.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	24 59.9% 13 64.6%	WAS 76.3% +10.4% SAS 65.9%
STL %	22 7.8% 24 7.5%	WAS 10.0% +3.9% SAS 6.1%
BLK %	9 10.0% 10 10.0%	WAS 10.4% SAS 15.5% +5.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	26 55.4% 6 58.1%	WAS 44.8% SAS 58.9% +14.1%
Rim FG%	15 64.7% 9 65.8%	WAS 57.7% SAS 61.3% +3.6%
Mid FG%	26 41.3% 5 45.1%	WAS 43.8% SAS 58.8% +15.0%
3P %	16 35.9% 15 35.9%	WAS 25.0% SAS 35.7% +10.7%
FT %	23 76.6% 12 78.7%	WAS 64.3% SAS 80.0% +15.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	22 30.6% 7 34.4%	WAS 27.7% SAS 34.4% +6.8%
Mid Att. %	25 29.1% 7 23.4%	WAS 34.0% SAS 18.9% −15.2%
3P Att. %	20 40.3% 15 42.2%	WAS 38.3% SAS 46.7% +8.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	SAS
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	94	119
Rebounds	46	53
Assists	29	29
Steals	10	6
Blocks	5	9
Turnovers (Team)	12 (2)	14 (0)
Fouls	18	12
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (5)	14 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (0)	39 (2)
Field Goals	38-94	44-90
At-the-Rim FG	15-26	19-31
Midrange FG	14-32	10-17
2-Point FG	29-58	29-48
3-Point FG	9-36	15-42
Free Throws	9-14	16-20
Fast Break Pts	7	16
2nd Chance Pts	11	13
Points in Paint	40	50
Pts off Turnovers	13	19
Bench Points	36	66
Biggest Lead	1	26

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg