Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, December 18, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Rockets	77%	120	128	118.5	108	91.3
	24	Pelicans	23%	110	133	123.1	108	105.3

Prediction updated: Dec 19, 2025 01:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+31

-18

121

NOP

+18

-12

114

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.06 52.9%

NOP

1.19 59.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	44.1	12	32%	12	2	0	0	4	4	4	8	1-2	50%	4-12	33%	1-6	17%
Kevin Durant #7 · SF · 6'11" 240 · 37	42.7	32	100%	7	2	1	4	6	2	0	7	4-4	100%	8-9	89%	4-6	67%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	40.6	23	82%	6	4	1	1	4	2	3	3	1-1	100%	11-13	85%	0-1	0%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	35.7	28	47%	11	8	2	2	2	5	6	5	6-10	60%	11-22	50%	0-4	0%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	30.2	10	63%	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	1	3-3	100%	2-5	40%	1-2	50%

Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	27.8	6	25%	10	3	1	1	1	3	6	4	2-5	40%	2-10	20%	0-0	-
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	26.9	11	46%	4	7	1	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-10	30%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	10.3	3	50%	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	6.7	3	50%	3	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Lower Leg; Injury Management
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Smith #21 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	INACTIVE
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	INACTIVE
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	128	53%	58	30	6	8	18	21	25	33	18-27	67%	40-75	53%	10-32	31%

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2 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	44.1	12	32%	12	2	0	0	4	4	4	8	1-2	50%	4-12	33%	1-6	17%
Kevin Durant #7 · SF · 6'11" 240 · 37	42.7	32	100%	7	2	1	4	6	2	0	7	4-4	100%	8-9	89%	4-6	67%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	40.6	23	82%	6	4	1	1	4	2	3	3	1-1	100%	11-13	85%	0-1	0%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	35.7	28	47%	11	8	2	2	2	5	6	5	6-10	60%	11-22	50%	0-4	0%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	30.2	10	63%	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	1	3-3	100%	2-5	40%	1-2	50%

Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	27.8	6	25%	10	3	1	1	1	3	6	4	2-5	40%	2-10	20%	0-0	-
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	26.9	11	46%	4	7	1	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-10	30%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	10.3	3	50%	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	6.7	3	50%	3	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Lower Leg; Injury Management
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Smith #21 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	INACTIVE
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	INACTIVE
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	128	53%	58	30	6	8	18	21	25	33	18-27	67%	40-75	53%	10-32	31%

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24 New Orleans Pelicans

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Trey Murphy III #25 · SF · 6'8" 206 · 26	38.5	27	84%	3	2	1	1	0	2	2	1	7-7	100%	7-11	64%	2-2	100%
Herbert Jones #2 · SG · 6'7" 206 · 27	38.2	18	60%	3	3	8	1	1	6	1	2	2-2	100%	5-8	63%	2-6	33%
Derik Queen #22 · C · 6'9" 250 · 21	35.4	16	47%	12	3	0	3	3	4	3	9	2-3	67%	7-14	50%	0-2	0%
Saddiq Bey #41 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 27	34.3	29	73%	9	1	2	0	1	0	1	8	4-4	100%	8-13	62%	3-5	60%
Jeremiah Fears #0 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 19	20.2	9	50%	3	4	0	0	1	0	1	2	1-2	50%	4-7	57%	0-1	0%

Jose Alvarado #15 · PG · 6'0" 179 · 28	30.4	7	58%	3	6	1	0	0	3	1	2	2-3	67%	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Jordan Poole #3 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	24.5	15	58%	1	2	3	0	2	2	0	1	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	2-7	29%
Zion Williamson #1 · PF · 6'6" 284 · 25	21.4	9	41%	3	5	0	1	2	3	2	1	3-4	75%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Karlo Matković #17 · PF · 6'10" 231 · 25	11.1	3	150%	2	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Yves Missi #21 · C · 6'11" 235 · 22	6.4	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bryce McGowens #11 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 23	4.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Micah Peavy #14 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan Hawkins #24 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #9 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevon Looney #55 · C · 6'9" 222 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Hunter Dickinson #4 · C · 7'1" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dejounte Murray #5 · PG · 6'4" 180 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Rupture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	133	59%	41	27	15	7	12	24	13	28	24-28	86%	38-70	54%	11-27	41%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	NOP
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	NOP

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.06 52.9%

NOP

1.19 59.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

67%

NOP

57%

Midrange

HOU

36%

NOP

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

15.0

31%

47%

NOP

16.5

41%

61%

Free Throws

HOU

67%

NOP

86%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Durant	32	100%	16.0 / 16
A. Sengun	28	47%	14.0 / 30
A. Thompson	23	82%	11.5 / 14
J. Smith	12	32%	6.0 / 19
R. Sheppard	11	46%	5.5 / 12
J. Okogie	10	63%	5.0 / 8
S. Adams	6	25%	3.0 / 12
A. Holiday	3	50%	1.5 / 3
C. Capela	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pelicans

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Bey	29	73%	14.5 / 20
T. Murphy	27	84%	13.5 / 16
H. Jones	18	60%	9.0 / 15
D. Queen	16	47%	8.0 / 17
J. Poole	15	58%	7.5 / 13
J. Fears	9	50%	4.5 / 9
Z. Williamson	9	41%	4.5 / 11
J. Alvarado	7	58%	3.5 / 6
K. Matković	3	150%	1.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	8 117.5 20 113.3	HOU 118.5 NOP 123.1 +4.6
Pace	29 96.9 11 101.3	HOU 91.3 NOP 105.3 +14.1
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.8 22 14.1	HOU 15.8 NOP 13.7 −2.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 54.2% 27 52.7%	HOU 51.4% NOP 56.2% +4.8%
TO %	25 14.7% 11 13.2%	HOU 14.4% NOP 9.9% −4.5%
ORB %	1 34.8% 8 27.0%	HOU 47.2% +18.9% NOP 28.3%
FTrt	18 26.0 8 28.4	HOU 25.2 NOP 28.9 +3.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.1% 26 59.6%	HOU 60.0% +4.9% NOP 55.1%
STL %	9 8.7% 10 8.7%	HOU 5.6% NOP 13.9% +8.3%
BLK %	4 10.9% 7 10.1%	HOU 11.4% +2.1% NOP 9.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.81 and 2.81.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 56.1% 25 55.4%	HOU 52.9% NOP 59.4% +6.5%
Rim FG%	13 64.8% 29 61.5%	HOU 66.7% +10.2% NOP 56.5%
Mid FG%	9 44.3% 30 36.6%	HOU 36.4% NOP 50.0% +13.6%
3P %	10 36.4% 24 34.7%	HOU 31.3% NOP 40.7% +9.4%
FT %	25 76.3% 14 78.4%	HOU 66.7% NOP 85.7% +19.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	20 30.7% 1 42.8%	HOU 39.3% NOP 47.4% +8.2%
Mid Att. %	29 34.2% 5 21.7%	HOU 30.8% NOP 24.7% −6.1%
3P Att. %	28 35.0% 27 35.5%	HOU 29.9% +2.1% NOP 27.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.79 and 2.79.

Game Totals	HOU	NOP
Possessions	108	108
Possession Minutes	28.4	24.6
Points	128	133
Rebounds	58	41
Assists	30	27
Steals	6	15
Blocks	8	7
Turnovers (Team)	18 (2)	12 (0)
Fouls	21	24
Off. Rebounds (Team)	25 (6)	13 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (2)	28 (1)
Field Goals	50-107	49-97
At-the-Rim FG	28-42	26-46
Midrange FG	12-33	12-24
2-Point FG	40-75	38-70
3-Point FG	10-32	11-27
Free Throws	18-27	24-28
Fast Break Pts	9	13
2nd Chance Pts	20	16
Points in Paint	66	64
Pts off Turnovers	20	16
Bench Points	23	34
Biggest Lead	25	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg