Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, December 19, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Spurs	52%	118	126	117.8	107	100.1
	13	Hawks	48%	117	98	91.6	107	114.9

Prediction updated: Dec 20, 2025 12:27 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+12

-14

105

ATL

+13

-16

104

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.20 60.0%

ATL

0.95 47.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 25	27.4	18	60%	7	3	2	0	1	0	1	6	0-0	-	3-6	50%	4-9	44%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	23.9	17	77%	2	7	0	1	3	0	0	2	2-3	67%	6-7	86%	1-3	33%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	21.9	8	36%	5	8	1	0	2	3	1	4	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-3	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.8	7	88%	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	17.6	8	67%	9	0	1	1	1	3	4	5	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-0	-

Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	21.5	26	72%	12	3	1	2	2	1	3	9	4-7	57%	8-11	73%	2-4	50%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	18.4	6	50%	3	4	0	0	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	18.3	6	43%	4	3	3	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-6	33%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	16.9	8	80%	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	16.1	13	81%	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-1	100%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	10.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	10.0	4	67%	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	8.1	1	25%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.1	4	50%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyle Mangas #16 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	60%	56	31	11	4	14	12	12	44	11-16	69%	38-58	66%	13-36	36%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 25	27.4	18	60%	7	3	2	0	1	0	1	6	0-0	-	3-6	50%	4-9	44%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	23.9	17	77%	2	7	0	1	3	0	0	2	2-3	67%	6-7	86%	1-3	33%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	21.9	8	36%	5	8	1	0	2	3	1	4	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-3	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.8	7	88%	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	17.6	8	67%	9	0	1	1	1	3	4	5	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-0	-

Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	21.5	26	72%	12	3	1	2	2	1	3	9	4-7	57%	8-11	73%	2-4	50%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	18.4	6	50%	3	4	0	0	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	18.3	6	43%	4	3	3	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-6	33%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	16.9	8	80%	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	16.1	13	81%	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-1	100%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	10.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	10.0	4	67%	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	8.1	1	25%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.1	4	50%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyle Mangas #16 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	60%	56	31	11	4	14	12	12	44	11-16	69%	38-58	66%	13-36	36%

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13 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	32.6	23	52%	2	4	0	0	3	1	1	1	7-9	78%	5-8	63%	2-10	20%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	31.1	17	65%	11	6	1	0	7	2	2	9	4-4	100%	5-10	50%	1-1	100%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	30.9	7	32%	8	5	2	0	1	4	2	6	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-5	20%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	30.4	11	50%	6	3	2	1	2	2	2	4	0-0	-	1-6	17%	3-5	60%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	25.9	11	37%	6	3	0	0	1	0	1	5	1-2	50%	5-9	56%	0-5	0%

Luke Kennard #3 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 29	28.8	10	100%	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	19.6	9	50%	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-1	0%	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Vít Krejčí #27 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 26	18.4	2	20%	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	14.3	4	33%	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-4	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	8.1	4	50%	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Eli John Ndiaye #30 · PF · 6'8" 209 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	48%	43	26	7	1	16	14	10	33	12-16	75%	28-54	52%	10-40	25%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	ATL
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	ATL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.20 60.0%

ATL

0.95 47.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

65%

ATL

56%

Midrange

SAS

67%

ATL

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

19.5

36%

54%

ATL

15.0

25%

38%

Free Throws

SAS

69%

ATL

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	26	72%	13.0 / 18
D. Vassell	18	60%	9.0 / 15
S. Castle	17	77%	8.5 / 11
K. Johnson	13	81%	6.5 / 8
D. Fox	8	36%	4.0 / 11
L. Kornet	8	67%	4.0 / 6
L. Waters	8	80%	4.0 / 5
H. Barnes	7	88%	3.5 / 4
D. Harper	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Champagnie	6	43%	3.0 / 7
J. McLaughlin	4	67%	2.0 / 3
K. Olynyk	4	50%	2.0 / 4
C. Bryant	1	25%	0.5 / 2
J. Sochan	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Alexander-Walker	23	52%	11.5 / 22
J. Johnson	17	65%	8.5 / 13
Z. Risacher	11	50%	5.5 / 11
D. Daniels	11	37%	5.5 / 15
L. Kennard	10	100%	5.0 / 5
A. Newell	9	50%	4.5 / 9
O. Okongwu	7	32%	3.5 / 11
M. Gueye	4	33%	2.0 / 6
K. Wallace	4	50%	2.0 / 4
V. Krejčí	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 14 115.1	SAS 117.8 +26.2 ATL 91.6
Pace	13 100.5 4 102.5	SAS 100.1 ATL 114.9 +14.7
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 29 13.5	SAS 14.4 ATL 12.5 −1.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 10 55.4%	SAS 61.2% +15.5% ATL 45.7%
TO %	4 12.5% 8 13.0%	SAS 12.9% −1.5% ATL 14.4%
ORB %	10 26.2% 20 24.3%	SAS 26.7% +8.2% ATL 18.5%
FTrt	12 27.3 27 23.4	SAS 17.0 ATL 17.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 4 69.1%	SAS 60.8% ATL 68.4% +7.6%
STL %	24 7.5% 6 9.1%	SAS 10.3% +3.8% ATL 6.5%
BLK %	10 10.0% 18 8.8%	SAS 7.4% +5.7% ATL 1.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 14 56.9%	SAS 60.0% +12.4% ATL 47.6%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 21 63.3%	SAS 64.7% +8.4% ATL 56.3%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 6 44.6%	SAS 66.7% +21.2% ATL 45.5%
3P %	15 35.9% 5 37.1%	SAS 36.1% +11.1% ATL 25.0%
FT %	12 78.7% 20 77.4%	SAS 68.8% ATL 75.0% +6.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 13 32.1%	SAS 36.2% +2.1% ATL 34.0%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 9 25.0%	SAS 25.5% ATL 23.4% −2.1%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 11 42.9%	SAS 38.3% ATL 42.6% +4.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	ATL
Possessions	107	107
Possession Minutes	25.6	22.4
Points	126	98
Rebounds	56	43
Assists	31	26
Steals	11	7
Blocks	4	1
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls	12	14
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (0)	10 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	44 (2)	33 (0)
Field Goals	51-94	38-94
At-the-Rim FG	22-34	18-32
Midrange FG	16-24	10-22
2-Point FG	38-58	28-54
3-Point FG	13-36	10-40
Free Throws	11-16	12-16
Fast Break Pts	24	13
2nd Chance Pts	15	15
Points in Paint	60	50
Pts off Turnovers	15	16
Bench Points	68	29
Biggest Lead	38	1

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg