Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, December 20, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	18	Magic	75%	122	128	116.4	110	94.2
	30	Jazz	25%	114	127	115.5	110	105.7

Prediction updated: Dec 21, 2025 02:32 AM

Scoring Opportunities

ORL

+17

-13

114

UTA

+24

-12

122

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ORL

1.12 56.1%

UTA

1.05 52.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

18 Orlando Magic

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Paolo Banchero #5 · PF · 6'10" 250 · 23	42.3	23	46%	9	9	0	2	2	4	1	8	10-15	67%	5-14	36%	1-4	25%
Anthony Black #0 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 22	39.6	20	63%	6	5	0	0	1	4	0	6	7-8	88%	5-8	63%	1-4	25%
Desmond Bane #3 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 27	39.4	32	70%	6	1	2	1	5	3	1	5	3-4	75%	10-14	71%	3-7	43%
Wendell Carter Jr. #34 · C · 6'10" 270 · 27	37.5	14	70%	9	4	0	1	2	5	3	6	1-2	50%	5-6	83%	1-3	33%
Tyus Jones #2 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	18.2	5	36%	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-6	17%

Noah Penda #93 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 21	23.6	13	59%	12	4	2	2	1	3	7	5	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Jase Richardson #11 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 20	23.2	10	50%	1	3	0	0	1	4	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-5	40%
Goga Bitadze #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 26	15.6	5	83%	4	2	1	2	0	2	2	2	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Jett Howard #13 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 22	14.8	5	63%	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Jonathan Isaac #1 · PF · 6'10" 230 · 28	11.0	1	17%	2	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Orlando Robinson #7 · C · 6'10" 235 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Colin Castleton #14 · C · 6'10" 250 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Franz Wagner #22 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left High Ankle; Sprain
Jalen Suggs #4 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Contusion
Tristan da Silva #23 · SF · 6'8" 217 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Moritz Wagner #21 · C · 6'11" 245 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	128	56%	52	32	6	9	13	29	14	38	23-33	70%	36-59	61%	11-37	30%

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18 Orlando Magic

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Paolo Banchero #5 · PF · 6'10" 250 · 23	42.3	23	46%	9	9	0	2	2	4	1	8	10-15	67%	5-14	36%	1-4	25%
Anthony Black #0 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 22	39.6	20	63%	6	5	0	0	1	4	0	6	7-8	88%	5-8	63%	1-4	25%
Desmond Bane #3 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 27	39.4	32	70%	6	1	2	1	5	3	1	5	3-4	75%	10-14	71%	3-7	43%
Wendell Carter Jr. #34 · C · 6'10" 270 · 27	37.5	14	70%	9	4	0	1	2	5	3	6	1-2	50%	5-6	83%	1-3	33%
Tyus Jones #2 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	18.2	5	36%	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-6	17%

Noah Penda #93 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 21	23.6	13	59%	12	4	2	2	1	3	7	5	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Jase Richardson #11 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 20	23.2	10	50%	1	3	0	0	1	4	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-5	40%
Goga Bitadze #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 26	15.6	5	83%	4	2	1	2	0	2	2	2	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Jett Howard #13 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 22	14.8	5	63%	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Jonathan Isaac #1 · PF · 6'10" 230 · 28	11.0	1	17%	2	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Orlando Robinson #7 · C · 6'10" 235 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Colin Castleton #14 · C · 6'10" 250 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Franz Wagner #22 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left High Ankle; Sprain
Jalen Suggs #4 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Contusion
Tristan da Silva #23 · SF · 6'8" 217 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Moritz Wagner #21 · C · 6'11" 245 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	128	56%	52	32	6	9	13	29	14	38	23-33	70%	36-59	61%	11-37	30%

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30 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	41.5	27	52%	4	9	2	1	5	5	1	3	9-10	90%	6-14	43%	2-8	25%
Ace Bailey #19 · SG · 6'9" 200 · 19	34.4	14	50%	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	4-7	57%	2-7	29%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	30.9	23	72%	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	4-8	50%	5-8	63%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · PF · 6'11" 250 · 22	21.1	6	33%	4	1	0	0	1	2	1	3	2-4	50%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	21.1	4	40%	8	5	1	0	1	5	3	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	31.9	16	67%	16	1	1	1	0	5	7	9	0-1	0%	2-5	40%	4-7	57%
Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	28.1	18	60%	5	9	1	0	3	6	1	4	5-6	83%	5-11	45%	1-1	100%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	24.6	12	50%	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	3	6-6	100%	3-5	60%	0-4	0%
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 21	12.7	0	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	10.6	6	150%	2	0	0	0	0	3	1	1	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	8.1	1	17%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Injury Management
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	127	53%	52	34	7	2	12	29	18	34	24-30	80%	29-62	47%	15-43	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ORL	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	ORL	UTA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

ORL

1.12 56.1%

UTA

1.05 52.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ORL

73%

UTA

64%

Midrange

ORL

52%

UTA

28%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ORL

16.5

30%

45%

UTA

22.5

35%

52%

Free Throws

ORL

70%

UTA

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Magic

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Bane	32	70%	16.0 / 23
P. Banchero	23	46%	11.5 / 25
A. Black	20	63%	10.0 / 16
W. Carter	14	70%	7.0 / 10
N. Penda	13	59%	6.5 / 11
J. Richardson	10	50%	5.0 / 10
T. Jones	5	36%	2.5 / 7
G. Bitadze	5	83%	2.5 / 3
J. Howard	5	63%	2.5 / 4
J. Isaac	1	17%	0.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. George	27	52%	13.5 / 26
S. Mykhailiuk	23	72%	11.5 / 16
I. Collier	18	60%	9.0 / 15
K. Love	16	67%	8.0 / 12
A. Bailey	14	50%	7.0 / 14
B. Sensabaugh	12	50%	6.0 / 12
K. Filipowski	6	33%	3.0 / 9
T. Hendricks	6	150%	3.0 / 2
J. Nurkić	4	40%	2.0 / 5
W. Clayton	1	17%	0.5 / 3
C. Williams	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	17 114.3 22 112.9	ORL 116.4 +0.9 UTA 115.5
Pace	14 100.5 2 103.4	ORL 94.2 UTA 105.7 +11.5
Avg. Poss. Time	17 14.2 27 13.8	ORL 15.3 UTA 13.6 −1.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	26 53.0% 20 53.6%	ORL 54.7% +5.7% UTA 49.0%
TO %	12 13.5% 23 14.4%	ORL 10.5% UTA 9.2% −1.3%
ORB %	18 25.0% 12 26.2%	ORL 29.2% UTA 32.1% +2.9%
FTrt	2 31.1 10 27.7	ORL 34.4 +5.8 UTA 28.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	12 64.7% 2 69.6%	ORL 68.1% UTA 77.3% +9.2%
STL %	16 8.4% 14 8.5%	ORL 5.5% UTA 6.4% +0.9%
BLK %	17 8.8% 30 7.5%	ORL 14.5% +11.1% UTA 3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.3% 18 56.4%	ORL 56.1% +3.6% UTA 52.5%
Rim FG%	24 63.0% 17 64.5%	ORL 73.1% +9.5% UTA 63.6%
Mid FG%	24 41.5% 8 44.4%	ORL 51.5% +23.9% UTA 27.6%
3P %	27 34.3% 25 34.5%	ORL 29.7% UTA 34.9% +5.2%
FT %	8 80.1% 13 78.6%	ORL 69.7% UTA 80.0% +10.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 35.7% 17 31.3%	ORL 27.1% UTA 31.4% +4.3%
Mid Att. %	12 25.7% 23 28.4%	ORL 34.4% UTA 27.6% −6.8%
3P Att. %	24 38.6% 21 40.3%	ORL 38.5% UTA 41.0% +2.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ORL	UTA
Possessions	110	110
Possession Minutes	28.0	25.0
Points	128	127
Rebounds	52	52
Assists	32	34
Steals	6	7
Blocks	9	2
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	12 (0)
Fouls	29	29
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (3)	18 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (2)	34 (4)
Field Goals	47-96	44-105
At-the-Rim FG	19-26	21-33
Midrange FG	17-33	8-29
2-Point FG	36-59	29-62
3-Point FG	11-37	15-43
Free Throws	23-33	24-30
Fast Break Pts	18	18
2nd Chance Pts	21	27
Points in Paint	64	50
Pts off Turnovers	17	13
Bench Points	34	53
Biggest Lead	19	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg