Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, December 21, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Spurs	89%	126	124	122.8	101	98.5
	30	Wizards	11%	110	113	110.8	102	104.4

Prediction updated: Dec 21, 2025 11:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+28

-9

120

WAS

+11

-5

108

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.03 51.7%

WAS

1.05 52.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.0	27	68%	7	6	0	1	0	3	1	6	2-3	67%	5-12	42%	5-7	71%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	32.0	18	41%	5	11	3	0	2	2	1	4	9-13	69%	3-11	27%	1-5	20%
Devin Vassell #24 · PF · 6'5" 200 · 25	30.7	11	46%	6	1	0	1	1	2	1	5	3-3	100%	1-4	25%	2-7	29%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	27.9	20	77%	12	0	0	1	0	3	6	6	4-4	100%	8-11	73%	0-0	-
Harrison Barnes #40 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	25.9	14	58%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	2-6	33%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.8	12	86%	9	0	0	0	1	2	6	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	21.5	14	50%	12	2	0	2	2	1	2	10	2-3	67%	6-10	60%	0-3	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	18.1	3	25%	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-6	17%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	17.7	1	6%	2	3	0	0	2	3	1	1	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	0-4	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	9.4	4	67%	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyle Mangas #16 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	124	52%	61	26	3	5	9	19	20	41	25-32	78%	30-63	48%	13-41	32%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.0	27	68%	7	6	0	1	0	3	1	6	2-3	67%	5-12	42%	5-7	71%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	32.0	18	41%	5	11	3	0	2	2	1	4	9-13	69%	3-11	27%	1-5	20%
Devin Vassell #24 · PF · 6'5" 200 · 25	30.7	11	46%	6	1	0	1	1	2	1	5	3-3	100%	1-4	25%	2-7	29%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	27.9	20	77%	12	0	0	1	0	3	6	6	4-4	100%	8-11	73%	0-0	-
Harrison Barnes #40 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	25.9	14	58%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	2-6	33%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.8	12	86%	9	0	0	0	1	2	6	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	21.5	14	50%	12	2	0	2	2	1	2	10	2-3	67%	6-10	60%	0-3	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	18.1	3	25%	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-6	17%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	17.7	1	6%	2	3	0	0	2	3	1	1	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	0-4	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	9.4	4	67%	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyle Mangas #16 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	124	52%	61	26	3	5	9	19	20	41	25-32	78%	30-63	48%	13-41	32%

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30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	39.8	21	81%	5	4	0	1	1	5	1	4	3-5	60%	3-5	60%	4-6	67%
CJ McCollum #3 · SG · 6'3" 190 · 34	34.2	15	47%	3	4	2	0	2	3	1	2	2-2	100%	5-10	50%	1-5	20%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 22	33.3	14	50%	4	7	1	1	2	5	0	4	2-3	67%	6-6	100%	0-7	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	27.2	18	45%	9	0	0	3	0	4	2	7	0-2	0%	6-10	60%	2-9	22%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	20.7	5	36%	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	2	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%

Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	25.4	19	79%	7	1	0	2	0	1	1	6	4-4	100%	3-4	75%	3-6	50%
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 24	21.9	4	67%	5	2	2	0	0	2	0	5	4-4	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Will Riley #27 · SF · 6'9" 180 · 20	16.8	8	44%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-3	0%
Malaki Branham #8 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 23	16.0	9	56%	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	4.6	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Injury Management
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Soreness
AJ Johnson #4 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Distal Phalanx Fracture
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	52%	43	20	5	7	5	25	8	35	18-24	75%	31-50	62%	11-45	24%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	WAS
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	WAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.03 51.7%

WAS

1.05 52.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

60%

WAS

64%

Midrange

SAS

20%

WAS

60%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

19.5

32%

48%

WAS

16.5

24%

37%

Free Throws

SAS

78%

WAS

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Fox	27	68%	13.5 / 20
L. Kornet	20	77%	10.0 / 13
S. Castle	18	41%	9.0 / 22
H. Barnes	14	58%	7.0 / 12
V. Wembanyama	14	50%	7.0 / 14
K. Johnson	12	86%	6.0 / 7
D. Vassell	11	46%	5.5 / 12
K. Olynyk	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Champagnie	3	25%	1.5 / 6
D. Harper	1	6%	0.5 / 9

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Carrington	21	81%	10.5 / 13
T. Johnson	19	79%	9.5 / 12
T. Vukcevic	18	45%	9.0 / 20
C. McCollum	15	47%	7.5 / 16
K. George	14	50%	7.0 / 14
M. Branham	9	56%	4.5 / 8
W. Riley	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Champagnie	5	36%	2.5 / 7
J. Watkins	4	67%	2.0 / 3
A. Gill	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 29 109.7	SAS 122.8 +12.0 WAS 110.8
Pace	13 100.5 5 102.5	SAS 98.5 WAS 104.4 +6.0
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 23 14.0	SAS 14.6 WAS 13.8 −0.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 21 53.5%	SAS 47.6% WAS 50.0% +2.4%
TO %	4 12.5% 26 14.7%	SAS 7.8% WAS 4.5% −3.3%
ORB %	10 26.2% 21 24.0%	SAS 36.4% +20.1% WAS 16.3%
FTrt	12 27.3 26 23.5	SAS 30.8 +5.5 WAS 25.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 24 59.9%	SAS 60.5% +12.9% WAS 47.6%
STL %	24 7.5% 22 7.8%	SAS 3.0% WAS 4.9% +1.9%
BLK %	10 10.0% 9 10.0%	SAS 10.0% WAS 11.1% +1.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 26 55.4%	SAS 51.7% WAS 52.3% +0.6%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 15 64.7%	SAS 60.5% WAS 64.0% +3.5%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 26 41.3%	SAS 20.0% WAS 60.0% +40.0%
3P %	15 35.9% 16 35.9%	SAS 31.7% +7.3% WAS 24.4%
FT %	12 78.7% 23 76.6%	SAS 78.1% +3.1% WAS 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 22 30.6%	SAS 41.3% +15.0% WAS 26.3%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 25 29.1%	SAS 19.2% −7.1% WAS 26.3%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 20 40.3%	SAS 39.4% WAS 47.4% +7.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	WAS
Possessions	101	102
Possession Minutes	24.6	23.4
Points	124	113
Rebounds	61	43
Assists	26	20
Steals	3	5
Blocks	5	7
Turnovers (Team)	9 (1)	5 (0)
Fouls	19	25
Off. Rebounds (Team)	20 (8)	8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (4)	35 (1)
Field Goals	43-104	42-95
At-the-Rim FG	26-43	16-25
Midrange FG	4-20	15-25
2-Point FG	30-63	31-50
3-Point FG	13-41	11-45
Free Throws	25-32	18-24
Fast Break Pts	16	19
2nd Chance Pts	32	9
Points in Paint	56	48
Pts off Turnovers	7	11
Bench Points	34	40
Biggest Lead	24	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg