Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, December 21, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Rockets	85%	118	124	119.2	104	92.8
	29	Kings	15%	104	125	119.0	105	96.5

Prediction updated: Dec 22, 2025 03:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+17

-14

107

SAC

+24

-11

118

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.16 57.9%

SAC

1.08 53.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kevin Durant #7 · SF · 6'11" 240 · 37	47.5	24	50%	10	8	0	0	2	3	1	9	5-6	83%	5-12	42%	3-9	33%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	45.1	18	75%	9	8	3	0	2	2	2	7	3-4	75%	6-9	67%	1-1	100%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	40.9	28	78%	6	3	2	2	4	4	1	5	4-6	67%	12-16	75%	0-1	0%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	36.4	18	53%	5	2	2	0	0	3	0	5	2-3	67%	2-5	40%	4-11	36%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	33.7	3	30%	6	2	1	0	2	2	3	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	33.8	15	54%	2	4	0	0	3	5	1	1	3-3	100%	0-4	0%	4-9	44%
Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	15.5	16	89%	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	3-3	100%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	11.9	2	25%	6	1	0	0	1	1	3	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Tyler Smith #21 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	124	58%	47	31	9	2	14	20	13	34	18-24	75%	29-56	52%	16-38	42%

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2 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kevin Durant #7 · SF · 6'11" 240 · 37	47.5	24	50%	10	8	0	0	2	3	1	9	5-6	83%	5-12	42%	3-9	33%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	45.1	18	75%	9	8	3	0	2	2	2	7	3-4	75%	6-9	67%	1-1	100%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	40.9	28	78%	6	3	2	2	4	4	1	5	4-6	67%	12-16	75%	0-1	0%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	36.4	18	53%	5	2	2	0	0	3	0	5	2-3	67%	2-5	40%	4-11	36%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	33.7	3	30%	6	2	1	0	2	2	3	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 21	33.8	15	54%	2	4	0	0	3	5	1	1	3-3	100%	0-4	0%	4-9	44%
Tari Eason #17 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	15.5	16	89%	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	3-3	100%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	11.9	2	25%	6	1	0	0	1	1	3	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Tyler Smith #21 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	124	58%	47	31	9	2	14	20	13	34	18-24	75%	29-56	52%	16-38	42%

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29 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keegan Murray #13 · SF · 6'8" 225 · 25	47.0	26	81%	4	0	1	0	1	1	2	2	5-5	100%	6-10	60%	3-4	75%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 36	40.1	27	64%	4	9	2	1	1	3	1	3	8-9	89%	8-15	53%	1-2	50%
Maxime Raynaud #42 · C · 7'1" 250 · 23	37.1	12	50%	14	0	1	0	2	6	4	10	0-0	-	6-11	55%	0-1	0%
Russell Westbrook #18 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 37	29.3	21	42%	13	4	2	0	4	3	6	7	0-2	0%	3-12	25%	5-12	42%
Precious Achiuwa #9 · PF · 6'8" 243 · 26	18.2	5	42%	1	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3-8	38%	1-2	50%	0-0	-

Dennis Schröder #17 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 32	31.9	24	71%	7	10	0	0	1	0	1	6	7-8	88%	4-5	80%	3-8	38%
Nique Clifford #5 · SG · 6'5" 175 · 24	26.9	6	33%	6	4	1	1	1	2	2	4	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-4	0%
Dylan Cardwell #32 · C · 6'10" 255 · 24	20.6	2	100%	4	0	0	2	0	4	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	9.0	0	0%	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 28	4.8	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-2	0%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Dario Šarić #20 · C · 6'10" 225 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Daeqwon Plowden #29 · SG · 6'4" 216 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Stevens #24 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Drew Eubanks #19 · C · 6'10" 245 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Avulsion Fracture
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Partial Meniscus Tear
Zach LaVine #8 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	125	54%	55	29	8	5	11	21	19	36	25-36	69%	32-63	51%	12-32	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	SAC
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	SAC

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.16 57.9%

SAC

1.08 53.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

82%

SAC

56%

Midrange

HOU

38%

SAC

49%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

24.0

42%

63%

SAC

18.0

38%

56%

Free Throws

HOU

75%

SAC

69%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sengun	28	78%	14.0 / 18
K. Durant	24	50%	12.0 / 24
A. Thompson	18	75%	9.0 / 12
J. Smith	18	53%	9.0 / 17
T. Eason	16	89%	8.0 / 9
R. Sheppard	15	54%	7.5 / 14
J. Okogie	3	30%	1.5 / 5
C. Capela	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. DeRozan	27	64%	13.5 / 21
K. Murray	26	81%	13.0 / 16
D. Schröder	24	71%	12.0 / 17
R. Westbrook	21	42%	10.5 / 25
M. Raynaud	12	50%	6.0 / 12
N. Clifford	6	33%	3.0 / 9
P. Achiuwa	5	42%	2.5 / 6
D. Cardwell	2	100%	1.0 / 1
M. Monk	2	50%	1.0 / 2
K. Ellis	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	8 117.5 26 110.6	HOU 119.2 +0.2 SAC 119.0
Pace	29 96.9 17 100.0	HOU 92.8 SAC 96.5 +3.7
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.8 14 14.5	HOU 15.5 SAC 14.9 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 54.2% 29 52.5%	HOU 56.4% +3.8% SAC 52.6%
TO %	25 14.7% 15 13.7%	HOU 12.5% SAC 9.8% −2.7%
ORB %	1 34.8% 13 25.9%	HOU 26.5% SAC 35.8% +9.3%
FTrt	18 26.0 19 25.6	HOU 25.5 SAC 37.9 +12.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.1% 20 61.5%	HOU 68.9% +3.0% SAC 65.9%
STL %	9 8.7% 21 8.0%	HOU 8.7% +1.1% SAC 7.6%
BLK %	4 10.9% 19 8.6%	HOU 3.2% SAC 8.9% +5.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.81 and 2.81.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 56.1% 29 54.7%	HOU 57.9% +4.0% SAC 53.9%
Rim FG%	13 64.8% 8 65.9%	HOU 82.4% +26.1% SAC 56.3%
Mid FG%	9 44.3% 13 43.8%	HOU 38.5% SAC 48.9% +10.4%
3P %	10 36.4% 29 34.1%	HOU 42.1% +4.6% SAC 37.5%
FT %	25 76.3% 21 77.2%	HOU 75.0% +5.6% SAC 69.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	20 30.7% 28 28.0%	HOU 18.1% +1.2% SAC 16.8%
Mid Att. %	29 34.2% 30 38.1%	HOU 41.5% −8.0% SAC 49.5%
3P Att. %	28 35.0% 30 33.9%	HOU 40.4% +6.7% SAC 33.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.66 and 2.66.

Game Totals	HOU	SAC
Possessions	104	105
Possession Minutes	26.9	26.1
Points	124	125
Rebounds	47	55
Assists	31	29
Steals	9	8
Blocks	2	5
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	11 (1)
Fouls	20	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (4)	19 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (2)	36 (1)
Field Goals	45-94	44-95
At-the-Rim FG	14-17	9-16
Midrange FG	15-39	23-47
2-Point FG	29-56	32-63
3-Point FG	16-38	12-32
Free Throws	18-24	25-36
Fast Break Pts	9	12
2nd Chance Pts	18	12
Points in Paint	50	42
Pts off Turnovers	18	18
Bench Points	33	34
Biggest Lead	14	10

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg