Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, December 22, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	27	Pacers	17%	107	95	100.0	95	102.7
	4	Celtics	83%	119	103	106.2	97	90.2

Prediction updated: Dec 23, 2025 12:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+11

-12

BOS

+19

-13

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.01 50.5%

BOS

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

27 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	37.4	25	63%	6	3	0	0	0	2	2	4	3-4	75%	5-11	45%	4-7	57%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	36.8	16	40%	9	0	0	1	0	3	3	6	0-0	-	5-13	38%	2-7	29%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	35.8	20	63%	2	7	0	0	4	3	0	2	6-7	86%	4-9	44%	2-4	50%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	33.6	13	54%	4	4	1	0	2	2	2	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-9	33%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	25.1	3	25%	5	0	0	1	2	2	0	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-5	20%

Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	23.1	3	38%	5	2	1	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	15.9	9	75%	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	5-5	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	15.4	2	20%	4	0	1	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
James Wiseman #11 · C · 6'11" 240 · 25	12.2	0	0%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Garrison Mathews #24 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 29	1.0	2	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	0.7	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sore
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; MCL Sprain
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Torn
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	51%	36	19	4	3	12	21	9	27	16-18	89%	20-45	44%	13-40	33%

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27 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	37.4	25	63%	6	3	0	0	0	2	2	4	3-4	75%	5-11	45%	4-7	57%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	36.8	16	40%	9	0	0	1	0	3	3	6	0-0	-	5-13	38%	2-7	29%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	35.8	20	63%	2	7	0	0	4	3	0	2	6-7	86%	4-9	44%	2-4	50%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	33.6	13	54%	4	4	1	0	2	2	2	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-9	33%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	25.1	3	25%	5	0	0	1	2	2	0	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-5	20%

Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	23.1	3	38%	5	2	1	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	15.9	9	75%	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	5-5	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	15.4	2	20%	4	0	1	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
James Wiseman #11 · C · 6'11" 240 · 25	12.2	0	0%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Garrison Mathews #24 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 29	1.0	2	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	0.7	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sore
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; MCL Sprain
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Torn
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	51%	36	19	4	3	12	21	9	27	16-18	89%	20-45	44%	13-40	33%

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4 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylen Brown #7 · SF · 6'6" 223 · 29	33.2	31	55%	9	2	1	2	2	1	1	8	7-8	88%	9-19	47%	2-6	33%
Payton Pritchard #11 · SG · 6'1" 195 · 28	33.0	11	42%	3	5	2	0	3	3	1	2	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	1-4	25%
Derrick White #9 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 31	31.5	19	56%	5	4	0	1	2	1	0	5	2-2	100%	4-8	50%	3-8	38%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	23.4	8	57%	8	2	0	0	1	3	2	6	2-4	50%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Josh Minott #8 · PF · 6'8" 205 · 23	8.6	2	50%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-

Hugo González #28 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 20	36.8	6	60%	11	1	1	2	2	4	2	9	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Luka Garza #52 · C · 6'10" 243 · 27	24.5	6	100%	9	3	0	1	0	0	5	4	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 28	19.9	6	38%	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-7	29%
Anfernee Simons #4 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	17.4	11	50%	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	2-7	29%
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 25	11.8	3	50%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Ron Harper Jr. #13 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Max Shulga #44 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Amari Williams #77 · PF · 6'11" 250 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Boucher #99 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Non-Covid
Jayson Tatum #0 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	51%	49	19	6	6	13	16	11	38	16-19	84%	27-52	52%	11-37	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	BOS
Clock	Team	Event	IND	BOS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.01 50.5%

BOS

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

50%

BOS

79%

Midrange

IND

42%

BOS

36%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

19.5

33%

49%

BOS

16.5

30%

45%

Free Throws

IND

89%

BOS

84%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	25	63%	12.5 / 20
A. Nembhard	20	63%	10.0 / 16
B. Mathurin	16	40%	8.0 / 20
E. Thompson	13	54%	6.5 / 12
Q. Jackson	9	75%	4.5 / 6
J. Huff	3	25%	1.5 / 6
J. Furphy	3	38%	1.5 / 4
J. Walker	2	20%	1.0 / 5
G. Mathews	2	-	0.0 / 0
K. Jones	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Wiseman	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Brown	31	55%	15.5 / 28
D. White	19	56%	9.5 / 17
P. Pritchard	11	42%	5.5 / 13
A. Simons	11	50%	5.5 / 11
N. Queta	8	57%	4.0 / 7
H. González	6	60%	3.0 / 5
L. Garza	6	100%	3.0 / 3
S. Hauser	6	38%	3.0 / 8
B. Scheierman	3	50%	1.5 / 3
J. Minott	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 2 120.0	IND 100.0 BOS 106.2 +6.2
Pace	10 101.4 30 95.5	IND 102.7 +12.5 BOS 90.2
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 2 15.7	IND 14.0 −1.9 BOS 16.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 11 55.3%	IND 46.5% BOS 48.9% +2.4%
TO %	14 13.6% 2 12.0%	IND 12.3% BOS 11.8% −0.5%
ORB %	29 21.7% 6 29.2%	IND 19.1% BOS 28.9% +9.8%
FTrt	20 25.2 30 20.7	IND 21.2 BOS 21.3 +0.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 30 58.5%	IND 57.6% +7.6% BOS 50.0%
STL %	28 7.2% 25 7.4%	IND 4.2% BOS 6.2% +2.0%
BLK %	26 8.1% 5 10.4%	IND 5.8% BOS 13.3% +7.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.21 and 2.21.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 13 56.9%	IND 50.5% BOS 50.5%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 2 68.9%	IND 50.0% BOS 78.9% +28.9%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 12 44.2%	IND 42.4% +6.0% BOS 36.4%
3P %	18 35.6% 8 36.7%	IND 32.5% +2.8% BOS 29.7%
FT %	17 77.6% 7 80.7%	IND 88.9% +4.7% BOS 84.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 30 24.4%	IND 14.1% BOS 21.3% +7.2%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 24 28.9%	IND 38.8% BOS 37.1% −1.7%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 4 46.7%	IND 47.1% +5.5% BOS 41.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.03 and 2.03.

Game Totals	IND	BOS
Possessions	95	97
Possession Minutes	22.2	25.8
Points	95	103
Rebounds	36	49
Assists	19	19
Steals	4	6
Blocks	3	6
Turnovers (Team)	12 (1)	13 (0)
Fouls	21	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (2)	11 (8)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (7)	38 (4)
Field Goals	33-85	38-89
At-the-Rim FG	6-12	15-19
Midrange FG	14-33	12-33
2-Point FG	20-45	27-52
3-Point FG	13-40	11-37
Free Throws	16-18	16-19
Fast Break Pts	13	7
2nd Chance Pts	10	24
Points in Paint	28	52
Pts off Turnovers	11	20
Bench Points	18	32
Biggest Lead	20	10

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg