Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, December 22, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	28	Jazz	20%	118	112	105.7	106	113.0
	9	Nuggets	80%	129	135	127.4	106	99.8

Prediction updated: Dec 23, 2025 02:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

UTA

+15

-14

107

DEN

+11

-10

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.06 52.8%

DEN

1.27 63.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

28 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	36.2	27	61%	8	1	0	0	3	4	2	6	5-5	100%	8-11	73%	2-9	22%
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	34.5	17	71%	14	6	0	0	2	4	2	12	3-5	60%	4-8	50%	2-2	100%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	33.9	20	67%	8	7	1	0	4	3	1	7	4-4	100%	5-10	50%	2-4	50%
Ace Bailey #19 · SG · 6'9" 200 · 19	24.0	10	36%	3	0	0	0	0	5	1	2	1-2	50%	3-8	38%	1-5	20%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	14.3	6	38%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	2-5	40%

Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	23.8	2	17%	2	9	2	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	23.2	14	54%	6	1	1	0	1	0	2	4	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	1-5	20%
Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	16.5	6	43%	2	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-6	33%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	12.7	5	125%	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	12.6	5	63%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 21	8.2	0	0%	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	53%	49	30	5	1	14	19	11	38	16-19	84%	27-55	49%	14-41	34%

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28 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	36.2	27	61%	8	1	0	0	3	4	2	6	5-5	100%	8-11	73%	2-9	22%
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	34.5	17	71%	14	6	0	0	2	4	2	12	3-5	60%	4-8	50%	2-2	100%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	33.9	20	67%	8	7	1	0	4	3	1	7	4-4	100%	5-10	50%	2-4	50%
Ace Bailey #19 · SG · 6'9" 200 · 19	24.0	10	36%	3	0	0	0	0	5	1	2	1-2	50%	3-8	38%	1-5	20%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	14.3	6	38%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	2-5	40%

Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	23.8	2	17%	2	9	2	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	23.2	14	54%	6	1	1	0	1	0	2	4	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	1-5	20%
Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	16.5	6	43%	2	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-6	33%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	12.7	5	125%	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	12.6	5	63%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 21	8.2	0	0%	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	53%	49	30	5	1	14	19	11	38	16-19	84%	27-55	49%	14-41	34%

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9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SG · 6'8" 210 · 30	29.2	20	100%	2	4	0	1	1	4	0	2	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	6-6	100%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	28.6	14	78%	13	13	2	3	2	2	2	11	3-4	75%	4-6	67%	1-1	100%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	27.9	20	91%	3	2	1	1	0	2	0	3	3-4	75%	4-5	80%	3-4	75%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	26.9	27	71%	6	5	1	0	1	1	0	6	5-6	83%	2-4	50%	6-12	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	19.9	3	19%	1	3	1	0	1	2	0	1	1-4	25%	1-2	50%	0-4	0%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	27.3	15	83%	5	1	2	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	6-8	75%	1-1	100%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	24.6	21	88%	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	3	3-3	100%	0-0	-	6-11	55%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	21.7	3	30%	3	5	0	2	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	16.2	12	50%	11	1	0	0	0	1	5	6	2-2	100%	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	11.5	0	0%	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	3.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	3.1	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	135	64%	51	37	8	7	10	17	9	42	19-25	76%	22-45	49%	24-46	52%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.06 52.8%

DEN

1.27 63.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

UTA

56%

DEN

56%

Midrange

UTA

37%

DEN

40%

3PT | Effective 3PT

UTA

21.0

34%

51%

DEN

36.0

52%

78%

Free Throws

UTA

84%

DEN

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Markkanen	27	61%	13.5 / 22
K. George	20	67%	10.0 / 15
J. Nurkić	17	71%	8.5 / 12
B. Sensabaugh	14	54%	7.0 / 13
A. Bailey	10	36%	5.0 / 14
S. Mykhailiuk	6	38%	3.0 / 8
W. Clayton	6	43%	3.0 / 7
K. Filipowski	5	125%	2.5 / 2
T. Hendricks	5	63%	2.5 / 4
I. Collier	2	17%	1.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	27	71%	13.5 / 19
T. Hardaway	21	88%	10.5 / 12
C. Johnson	20	100%	10.0 / 10
P. Watson	20	91%	10.0 / 11
B. Brown	15	83%	7.5 / 9
N. Jokić	14	78%	7.0 / 9
J. Valančiūnas	12	50%	6.0 / 12
S. Jones	3	19%	1.5 / 8
J. Pickett	3	30%	1.5 / 5
J. Strawther	0	-	0.0 / 6
H. Tyson	0	-	0.0 / 1
Z. Nnaji	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	22 112.9 1 121.3	UTA 105.7 DEN 127.4 +21.7
Pace	2 103.4 19 99.4	UTA 113.0 +13.2 DEN 99.8
Avg. Poss. Time	27 13.8 9 14.7	UTA 12.7 −1.7 DEN 14.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.6% 1 57.7%	UTA 50.0% DEN 63.7% +13.7%
TO %	23 14.4% 3 12.1%	UTA 11.8% DEN 9.7% −2.1%
ORB %	12 26.2% 24 23.6%	UTA 20.8% +1.7% DEN 19.1%
FTrt	10 27.7 4 29.4	UTA 19.8 DEN 27.5 +7.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	2 69.6% 9 66.5%	UTA 73.2% DEN 80.4% +7.2%
STL %	14 8.5% 30 6.8%	UTA 4.7% DEN 7.5% +2.8%
BLK %	30 7.5% 29 7.6%	UTA 2.2% DEN 12.7% +10.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	18 56.4% 1 60.1%	UTA 52.8% DEN 63.7% +10.9%
Rim FG%	17 64.5% 12 65.1%	UTA 55.6% DEN 56.0% +0.4%
Mid FG%	8 44.4% 2 47.0%	UTA 36.8% DEN 40.0% +3.2%
3P %	25 34.5% 1 39.6%	UTA 34.1% DEN 52.2% +18.1%
FT %	13 78.6% 5 80.8%	UTA 84.2% +8.2% DEN 76.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	17 31.3% 19 31.1%	UTA 37.5% +10.0% DEN 27.5%
Mid Att. %	23 28.4% 21 28.1%	UTA 19.8% −2.2% DEN 22.0%
3P Att. %	21 40.3% 17 40.8%	UTA 42.7% DEN 50.5% +7.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	UTA	DEN
Possessions	106	106
Possession Minutes	22.5	25.5
Points	112	135
Rebounds	49	51
Assists	30	37
Steals	5	8
Blocks	1	7
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	10 (1)
Fouls	19	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (4)	9 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (1)	42 (0)
Field Goals	41-96	46-91
At-the-Rim FG	20-36	14-25
Midrange FG	7-19	8-20
2-Point FG	27-55	22-45
3-Point FG	14-41	24-46
Free Throws	16-19	19-25
Fast Break Pts	15	37
2nd Chance Pts	13	8
Points in Paint	46	40
Pts off Turnovers	12	19
Bench Points	32	51
Biggest Lead	0	29

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg