Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, December 26, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Celtics	71%	114	140	137.3	102	95.7
	24	Pacers	29%	107	122	118.4	103	110.3

Prediction updated: Dec 27, 2025 12:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

BOS

+13

-12

103

IND

+14

-14

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.37 68.6%

IND

1.20 59.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 28	37.7	29	69%	9	5	1	0	3	3	2	7	6-8	75%	7-9	78%	3-8	38%
Derrick White #9 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 31	33.1	21	58%	5	6	2	1	2	2	0	5	6-7	86%	3-8	38%	3-7	43%
Jaylen Brown #7 · PF · 6'6" 223 · 29	32.2	30	71%	3	4	4	0	4	4	1	2	2-2	100%	11-17	65%	2-3	67%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	20.7	8	57%	7	3	1	2	0	1	2	5	4-6	67%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Jordan Walsh #27 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 22	18.9	3	75%	2	3	0	0	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%

Luka Garza #52 · C · 6'10" 243 · 27	26.6	15	94%	4	2	0	0	0	4	2	2	4-6	67%	4-4	100%	1-1	100%
Anfernee Simons #4 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	21.2	8	50%	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	3	2-3	67%	0-1	0%	2-6	33%
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 25	20.1	3	38%	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 28	17.1	23	128%	4	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	7-8	88%
Hugo González #28 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 20	12.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Josh Minott #8 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Boucher #99 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 33	NWT – Personal
Max Shulga #44 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Amari Williams #77 · PF · 6'11" 250 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Ron Harper Jr. #13 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jayson Tatum #0 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	140	69%	43	26	8	3	12	22	12	31	26-34	76%	27-44	61%	20-39	51%

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5 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 28	37.7	29	69%	9	5	1	0	3	3	2	7	6-8	75%	7-9	78%	3-8	38%
Derrick White #9 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 31	33.1	21	58%	5	6	2	1	2	2	0	5	6-7	86%	3-8	38%	3-7	43%
Jaylen Brown #7 · PF · 6'6" 223 · 29	32.2	30	71%	3	4	4	0	4	4	1	2	2-2	100%	11-17	65%	2-3	67%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	20.7	8	57%	7	3	1	2	0	1	2	5	4-6	67%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Jordan Walsh #27 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 22	18.9	3	75%	2	3	0	0	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%

Luka Garza #52 · C · 6'10" 243 · 27	26.6	15	94%	4	2	0	0	0	4	2	2	4-6	67%	4-4	100%	1-1	100%
Anfernee Simons #4 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	21.2	8	50%	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	3	2-3	67%	0-1	0%	2-6	33%
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 25	20.1	3	38%	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 28	17.1	23	128%	4	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	7-8	88%
Hugo González #28 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 20	12.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Josh Minott #8 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Boucher #99 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 33	NWT – Personal
Max Shulga #44 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Amari Williams #77 · PF · 6'11" 250 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Ron Harper Jr. #13 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jayson Tatum #0 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	140	69%	43	26	8	3	12	22	12	31	26-34	76%	27-44	61%	20-39	51%

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24 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	29.9	13	46%	4	4	1	0	1	3	1	3	2-2	100%	4-8	50%	1-5	20%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	29.5	18	69%	4	8	2	0	5	2	0	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	4-7	57%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	28.4	11	34%	6	1	2	0	2	3	4	2	3-6	50%	4-10	40%	0-3	0%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	21.1	9	50%	4	2	0	2	1	3	0	4	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	1-6	17%
Quenton Jackson #29 · SG · 6'4" 173 · 27	15.7	6	50%	3	1	0	0	0	4	0	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%

Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	26.3	11	61%	4	6	0	0	2	4	2	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	18.4	9	75%	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	18.1	12	67%	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	4-7	57%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	17.8	9	113%	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	14.3	13	93%	1	3	1	0	1	2	0	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	1-1	100%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	7.0	4	100%	2	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	6.7	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	6.7	4	100%	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Concussion
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee MCL; Sprain
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	60%	35	29	6	3	14	28	11	24	16-20	80%	26-45	58%	18-44	41%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	IND
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	IND

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.37 68.6%

IND

1.20 59.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

BOS

56%

IND

72%

Midrange

BOS

64%

IND

40%

3PT | Effective 3PT

BOS

30.0

51%

77%

IND

27.0

41%

61%

Free Throws

BOS

76%

IND

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Brown	30	71%	15.0 / 21
P. Pritchard	29	69%	14.5 / 21
S. Hauser	23	128%	11.5 / 9
D. White	21	58%	10.5 / 18
L. Garza	15	94%	7.5 / 8
N. Queta	8	57%	4.0 / 7
A. Simons	8	50%	4.0 / 8
J. Walsh	3	75%	1.5 / 2
B. Scheierman	3	38%	1.5 / 4
H. González	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Nembhard	18	69%	9.0 / 13
B. Mathurin	13	46%	6.5 / 14
T. McConnell	13	93%	6.5 / 7
J. Walker	12	67%	6.0 / 9
P. Siakam	11	34%	5.5 / 16
E. Thompson	11	61%	5.5 / 9
J. Huff	9	50%	4.5 / 9
J. Furphy	9	75%	4.5 / 6
M. Potter	9	113%	4.5 / 4
Q. Jackson	6	50%	3.0 / 6
T. Bradley	4	100%	2.0 / 2
K. Jones	4	100%	2.0 / 2
T. Peter	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	2 120.0 28 110.1	BOS 137.3 +18.8 IND 118.4
Pace	30 95.5 10 101.4	BOS 95.7 IND 110.3 +14.5
Avg. Poss. Time	2 15.7 25 13.9	BOS 15.0 IND 13.1 −2.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	11 55.3% 23 53.3%	BOS 68.7% +9.1% IND 59.6%
TO %	2 12.0% 14 13.6%	BOS 12.5% IND 12.5%
ORB %	6 29.2% 29 21.7%	BOS 33.3% +7.1% IND 26.2%
FTrt	30 20.7 20 25.2	BOS 41.0 +18.5 IND 22.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	30 58.5% 5 67.8%	BOS 55.3% IND 65.9% +10.6%
STL %	25 7.4% 28 7.2%	BOS 7.8% +2.0% IND 5.8%
BLK %	5 10.4% 26 8.1%	BOS 6.7% IND 6.8% +0.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.21 and 2.21.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	13 56.9% 24 55.4%	BOS 68.6% +8.8% IND 59.8%
Rim FG%	2 68.9% 25 62.9%	BOS 56.3% IND 72.0% +15.7%
Mid FG%	12 44.2% 19 42.7%	BOS 64.3% +24.3% IND 40.0%
3P %	8 36.7% 18 35.6%	BOS 51.3% +10.4% IND 40.9%
FT %	7 80.7% 17 77.6%	BOS 76.5% IND 80.0% +3.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	30 24.4% 23 30.3%	BOS 19.3% IND 28.1% +8.8%
Mid Att. %	24 28.9% 18 27.5%	BOS 33.7% IND 22.5% −11.3%
3P Att. %	4 46.7% 14 42.2%	BOS 47.0% IND 49.4% +2.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.03 and 2.03.

Game Totals	BOS	IND
Possessions	102	103
Possession Minutes	25.6	22.4
Points	140	122
Rebounds	43	35
Assists	26	29
Steals	8	6
Blocks	3	3
Turnovers (Team)	12 (2)	14 (0)
Fouls	22	28
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (1)	11 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (2)	24 (3)
Field Goals	47-83	44-89
At-the-Rim FG	9-16	18-25
Midrange FG	18-28	8-20
2-Point FG	27-44	26-45
3-Point FG	20-39	18-44
Free Throws	26-34	16-20
Fast Break Pts	14	14
2nd Chance Pts	24	16
Points in Paint	38	42
Pts off Turnovers	22	14
Bench Points	49	65
Biggest Lead	28	15

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg