Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, December 27, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	27	Mavericks	58%	114	107	103.9	103	106.4
	30	Kings	42%	111	113	108.7	104	100.8

Prediction updated: Dec 27, 2025 09:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

DAL

+15

-19

SAC

+18

-11

111

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DAL

1.08 54.0%

SAC

1.03 51.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

27 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cooper Flagg #32 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 19	34.2	23	72%	6	5	0	0	5	3	0	6	6-6	100%	4-9	44%	3-4	75%
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 27	33.8	17	61%	5	1	0	4	2	1	1	4	3-3	100%	7-9	78%	0-4	0%
Max Christie #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 23	29.9	9	35%	7	5	1	0	3	2	1	6	1-2	50%	1-8	13%	2-4	50%
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 27	23.0	11	79%	7	1	1	1	2	1	1	6	1-1	100%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Ryan Nembhard #9 · PG · 5'11" 180 · 23	16.8	9	56%	2	3	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-3	33%

Naji Marshall #13 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 28	26.4	11	50%	2	1	1	0	2	2	0	2	2-4	50%	3-8	38%	1-1	100%
Klay Thompson #31 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 36	25.1	14	54%	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	4	0-0	-	1-5	20%	4-8	50%
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 34	19.2	1	17%	11	0	0	2	1	0	4	7	1-4	25%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
D'Angelo Russell #5 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	12.8	7	50%	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 23	7.3	5	83%	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Moussa Cisse #30 · C · 6'11" 220 · 23	5.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 30	5.6	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Miles Kelly #14 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery
Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Contusion
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Anthony Davis #3 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Soreness
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	54%	51	23	6	8	19	11	11	40	14-20	70%	27-60	45%	13-27	48%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

27 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cooper Flagg #32 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 19	34.2	23	72%	6	5	0	0	5	3	0	6	6-6	100%	4-9	44%	3-4	75%
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 27	33.8	17	61%	5	1	0	4	2	1	1	4	3-3	100%	7-9	78%	0-4	0%
Max Christie #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 23	29.9	9	35%	7	5	1	0	3	2	1	6	1-2	50%	1-8	13%	2-4	50%
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 27	23.0	11	79%	7	1	1	1	2	1	1	6	1-1	100%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Ryan Nembhard #9 · PG · 5'11" 180 · 23	16.8	9	56%	2	3	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-3	33%

Naji Marshall #13 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 28	26.4	11	50%	2	1	1	0	2	2	0	2	2-4	50%	3-8	38%	1-1	100%
Klay Thompson #31 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 36	25.1	14	54%	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	4	0-0	-	1-5	20%	4-8	50%
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 34	19.2	1	17%	11	0	0	2	1	0	4	7	1-4	25%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
D'Angelo Russell #5 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	12.8	7	50%	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 23	7.3	5	83%	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Moussa Cisse #30 · C · 6'11" 220 · 23	5.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 30	5.6	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Miles Kelly #14 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery
Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Contusion
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Anthony Davis #3 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Soreness
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	54%	51	23	6	8	19	11	11	40	14-20	70%	27-60	45%	13-27	48%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

30 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	32.3	21	70%	1	0	3	2	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	5-10	50%
Russell Westbrook #18 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 37	27.9	21	66%	5	9	1	0	4	3	2	3	0-0	-	3-7	43%	5-9	56%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 36	27.8	9	41%	4	6	2	1	0	1	0	4	3-3	100%	3-8	38%	0-2	0%
Maxime Raynaud #42 · C · 7'1" 250 · 23	27.0	19	63%	6	2	1	2	0	3	1	5	0-0	-	8-14	57%	1-1	100%
Precious Achiuwa #9 · PF · 6'8" 243 · 26	25.3	5	28%	9	2	2	0	0	1	3	6	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	0-2	0%

Dylan Cardwell #32 · C · 6'10" 255 · 24	21.0	4	50%	8	3	1	2	2	3	5	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Dennis Schröder #17 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 32	20.3	10	45%	2	5	3	0	1	1	0	2	1-1	100%	3-9	33%	1-2	50%
Nique Clifford #5 · SG · 6'5" 175 · 24	20.1	8	36%	9	1	2	0	1	1	3	6	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	1-3	33%
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	19.4	9	75%	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-6	50%
Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 28	19.0	7	39%	3	3	1	0	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-3	33%
Dario Šarić #20 · C · 6'10" 225 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Daeqwon Plowden #29 · SG · 6'4" 216 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Stevens #24 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Drew Eubanks #19 · C · 6'10" 245 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Avulsion Fracture
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Partial Meniscus Tear
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Zach LaVine #8 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	51%	50	32	16	7	11	15	14	36	6-8	75%	28-66	42%	17-38	45%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DAL	SAC
Clock	Team	Event	DAL	SAC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DAL

1.08 54.0%

SAC

1.03 51.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DAL

48%

SAC

52%

Midrange

DAL

43%

SAC

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DAL

19.5

48%

72%

SAC

25.5

45%

67%

Free Throws

DAL

70%

SAC

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Flagg	23	72%	11.5 / 16
P. Washington	17	61%	8.5 / 14
K. Thompson	14	54%	7.0 / 13
D. Gafford	11	79%	5.5 / 7
N. Marshall	11	50%	5.5 / 11
M. Christie	9	35%	4.5 / 13
R. Nembhard	9	56%	4.5 / 8
D. Russell	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Hardy	5	83%	2.5 / 3
D. Powell	1	17%	0.5 / 3
C. Martin	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Ellis	21	70%	10.5 / 15
R. Westbrook	21	66%	10.5 / 16
M. Raynaud	19	63%	9.5 / 15
D. Schröder	10	45%	5.0 / 11
D. DeRozan	9	41%	4.5 / 11
D. McDermott	9	75%	4.5 / 6
N. Clifford	8	36%	4.0 / 11
M. Monk	7	39%	3.5 / 9
P. Achiuwa	5	28%	2.5 / 9
D. Cardwell	4	50%	2.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	27 110.4 26 110.6	DAL 103.9 SAC 108.7 +4.8
Pace	6 102.5 17 100.0	DAL 106.4 +5.6 SAC 100.8
Avg. Poss. Time	24 14.0 14 14.5	DAL 13.5 −0.7 SAC 14.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 52.7% 29 52.5%	DAL 53.4% +2.0% SAC 51.4%
TO %	13 13.5% 15 13.7%	DAL 18.0% SAC 9.3% −8.7%
ORB %	26 23.2% 13 25.9%	DAL 23.4% SAC 25.9% +2.5%
FTrt	6 28.7 19 25.6	DAL 23.0 +15.3 SAC 7.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	22 60.4% 20 61.5%	DAL 57.5% SAC 71.1% +13.6%
STL %	27 7.3% 21 8.0%	DAL 5.8% SAC 15.4% +9.6%
BLK %	16 9.0% 19 8.6%	DAL 12.1% +0.4% SAC 11.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	28 55.2% 29 54.7%	DAL 54.0% +2.6% SAC 51.4%
Rim FG%	22 63.2% 8 65.9%	DAL 48.0% SAC 51.7% +3.7%
Mid FG%	18 43.1% 13 43.8%	DAL 42.9% +7.8% SAC 35.1%
3P %	26 34.4% 29 34.1%	DAL 48.1% +3.4% SAC 44.7%
FT %	28 75.5% 21 77.2%	DAL 70.0% SAC 75.0% +5.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	12 32.8% 28 28.0%	DAL 28.7% +0.9% SAC 27.9%
Mid Att. %	28 31.7% 30 38.1%	DAL 40.2% SAC 35.6% −4.7%
3P Att. %	26 35.5% 30 33.9%	DAL 31.0% SAC 36.5% +5.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.66 and 2.66.

Game Totals	DAL	SAC
Possessions	103	104
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	107	113
Rebounds	51	50
Assists	23	32
Steals	6	16
Blocks	8	7
Turnovers (Team)	19 (2)	11 (0)
Fouls	11	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (4)	14 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (4)	36 (0)
Field Goals	40-87	45-104
At-the-Rim FG	12-25	15-29
Midrange FG	15-35	13-37
2-Point FG	27-60	28-66
3-Point FG	13-27	17-38
Free Throws	14-20	6-8
Fast Break Pts	11	11
2nd Chance Pts	10	11
Points in Paint	46	42
Pts off Turnovers	11	28
Bench Points	38	38
Biggest Lead	4	18

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg