Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, December 27, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	23	Pacers	32%	110	116	106.4	109	108.2
	14	Heat	68%	117	142	130.3	109	109.8

Prediction updated: Dec 28, 2025 12:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+17

-26

100

MIA

+20

-10

119

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.16 58.0%

MIA

1.18 59.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

23 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 24	34.8	25	69%	6	0	2	0	5	2	0	6	4-5	80%	6-9	67%	3-7	43%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	34.3	15	44%	3	16	0	0	3	2	2	1	0-0	-	6-11	55%	1-6	17%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	33.7	33	79%	7	5	2	0	5	2	4	3	1-1	100%	10-15	67%	4-6	67%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	21.9	11	69%	1	2	1	3	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	20.8	9	75%	7	1	1	0	1	2	1	6	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%

Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	20.6	3	75%	3	1	0	0	3	1	0	3	3-4	75%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	19.2	9	50%	5	1	0	2	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	3-8	38%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	13.7	4	50%	0	3	0	0	3	2	0	0	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	11.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	0-1	0%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	11.3	3	75%	4	0	0	0	1	3	2	2	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	10.8	2	25%	4	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	3.5	2	25%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	3.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Concussion
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Torn
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	58%	45	30	6	5	26	22	15	30	12-16	75%	34-55	62%	12-38	32%

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23 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 24	34.8	25	69%	6	0	2	0	5	2	0	6	4-5	80%	6-9	67%	3-7	43%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	34.3	15	44%	3	16	0	0	3	2	2	1	0-0	-	6-11	55%	1-6	17%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	33.7	33	79%	7	5	2	0	5	2	4	3	1-1	100%	10-15	67%	4-6	67%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	21.9	11	69%	1	2	1	3	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	20.8	9	75%	7	1	1	0	1	2	1	6	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%

Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	20.6	3	75%	3	1	0	0	3	1	0	3	3-4	75%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	19.2	9	50%	5	1	0	2	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	3-8	38%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	13.7	4	50%	0	3	0	0	3	2	0	0	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	11.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	0-1	0%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	11.3	3	75%	4	0	0	0	1	3	2	2	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	10.8	2	25%	4	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	3.5	2	25%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	3.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Concussion
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Torn
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	58%	45	30	6	5	26	22	15	30	12-16	75%	34-55	62%	12-38	32%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	30.6	28	88%	6	3	3	1	2	3	5	1	0-0	-	8-12	67%	4-4	100%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	28.5	15	68%	7	0	3	1	0	1	2	5	0-0	-	6-8	75%	1-3	33%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	28.4	23	52%	5	2	2	1	1	1	0	5	8-8	100%	6-16	38%	1-3	33%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	27.4	16	80%	4	7	0	1	0	2	2	2	5-6	83%	4-6	67%	1-1	100%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	19.2	0	0%	2	5	2	0	0	4	1	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-3	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	28.6	28	82%	6	3	1	0	2	1	3	3	5-5	100%	10-14	71%	1-1	100%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	24.6	19	63%	7	7	2	0	2	0	0	7	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	3-8	38%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	23.4	5	42%	5	3	1	1	2	0	1	4	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	22.1	4	25%	3	2	3	0	1	3	0	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-3	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	3.5	2	33%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	2.1	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	1.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Big Toe; Contusion
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Soreness
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	142	59%	49	33	17	5	10	15	17	32	20-21	95%	43-76	57%	12-31	39%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	IND	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.16 58.0%

MIA

1.18 59.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

59%

MIA

64%

Midrange

IND

65%

MIA

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

18.0

32%

47%

MIA

18.0

39%

58%

Free Throws

IND

75%

MIA

95%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	33	79%	16.5 / 21
B. Mathurin	25	69%	12.5 / 18
A. Nembhard	15	44%	7.5 / 17
J. Huff	11	69%	5.5 / 8
J. Furphy	9	75%	4.5 / 6
A. Nesmith	9	50%	4.5 / 9
Q. Jackson	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Walker	3	75%	1.5 / 2
T. Bradley	3	75%	1.5 / 2
M. Potter	2	25%	1.0 / 4
K. Jones	2	25%	1.0 / 4
E. Thompson	0	-	0.0 / 2
T. Peter	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Wiggins	28	88%	14.0 / 16
J. Jaquez	28	82%	14.0 / 17
N. Powell	23	52%	11.5 / 22
N. Jović	19	63%	9.5 / 15
P. Larsson	16	80%	8.0 / 10
K. Ware	15	68%	7.5 / 11
D. Smith	5	42%	2.5 / 6
K. Jakučionis	4	25%	2.0 / 8
S. Fontecchio	2	33%	1.0 / 3
K. Johnson	2	100%	1.0 / 1
D. Mitchell	0	-	0.0 / 6
M. Gardner	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 12 115.8	IND 106.4 MIA 130.3 +23.9
Pace	10 101.4 1 104.3	IND 108.2 MIA 109.8 +1.6
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 30 13.1	IND 13.3 MIA 13.1 −0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 18 54.2%	IND 55.9% MIA 57.0% +1.1%
TO %	14 13.6% 5 12.6%	IND 20.6% MIA 8.6% −12.0%
ORB %	29 21.7% 17 25.4%	IND 31.9% MIA 36.2% +4.3%
FTrt	20 25.2 14 26.8	IND 17.2 MIA 19.6 +2.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 10 66.3%	IND 65.2% +5.2% MIA 60.0%
STL %	28 7.2% 17 8.3%	IND 5.5% MIA 15.6% +10.1%
BLK %	26 8.1% 28 7.9%	IND 6.6% MIA 9.1% +2.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 15 56.8%	IND 58.0% MIA 59.2% +1.2%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 20 63.6%	IND 59.4% MIA 63.8% +4.4%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 21 42.4%	IND 65.2% +31.9% MIA 33.3%
3P %	18 35.6% 11 36.1%	IND 31.6% MIA 38.7% +7.1%
FT %	17 77.6% 11 79.2%	IND 75.0% MIA 95.2% +20.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 11 32.9%	IND 34.4% MIA 54.2% +19.8%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 17 26.5%	IND 24.7% MIA 16.8% −7.9%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 18 40.6%	IND 40.9% +11.9% MIA 29.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	IND	MIA
Possessions	109	109
Possession Minutes	24.2	23.8
Points	116	142
Rebounds	45	49
Assists	30	33
Steals	6	17
Blocks	5	5
Turnovers (Team)	26 (0)	10 (1)
Fouls	22	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (2)	17 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (3)	32 (0)
Field Goals	46-93	55-107
At-the-Rim FG	19-32	37-58
Midrange FG	15-23	6-18
2-Point FG	34-55	43-76
3-Point FG	12-38	12-31
Free Throws	12-16	20-21
Fast Break Pts	14	30
2nd Chance Pts	14	24
Points in Paint	56	78
Pts off Turnovers	19	38
Bench Points	23	60
Biggest Lead	4	26

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg