Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, December 27, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	28	Jazz	14%	114	127	127.0	100	99.5
	7	Spurs	86%	128	114	115.2	99	99.5

Prediction updated: Dec 28, 2025 12:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

UTA

+12

-15

SAS

+21

-11

109

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.31 65.5%

SAS

1.04 51.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

28 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	34.8	28	58%	5	6	2	1	3	1	0	5	11-13	85%	4-9	44%	3-9	33%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	34.3	29	85%	5	1	3	1	1	3	1	4	2-2	100%	6-10	60%	5-6	83%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SG · 6'6" 235 · 22	33.6	11	92%	4	2	0	0	2	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-5	60%
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	26.2	14	50%	7	6	0	0	3	5	2	5	2-4	50%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	14.1	3	150%	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%

Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	22.3	17	121%	2	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	3-3	100%	4-4	100%	2-2	100%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	21.8	6	38%	3	6	2	1	1	3	0	3	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	0-2	0%
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 21	19.4	8	50%	6	1	1	0	0	1	2	4	0-1	0%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	18.2	2	25%	3	1	0	1	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	15.3	7	70%	1	4	0	0	4	1	0	1	0-1	0%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 19	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip Flexor; Strain
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	66%	37	34	9	4	15	19	7	30	20-26	77%	28-46	61%	17-37	46%

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28 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	34.8	28	58%	5	6	2	1	3	1	0	5	11-13	85%	4-9	44%	3-9	33%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	34.3	29	85%	5	1	3	1	1	3	1	4	2-2	100%	6-10	60%	5-6	83%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SG · 6'6" 235 · 22	33.6	11	92%	4	2	0	0	2	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-5	60%
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	26.2	14	50%	7	6	0	0	3	5	2	5	2-4	50%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	14.1	3	150%	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%

Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	22.3	17	121%	2	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	3-3	100%	4-4	100%	2-2	100%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	21.8	6	38%	3	6	2	1	1	3	0	3	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	0-2	0%
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 21	19.4	8	50%	6	1	1	0	0	1	2	4	0-1	0%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	18.2	2	25%	3	1	0	1	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	15.3	7	70%	1	4	0	0	4	1	0	1	0-1	0%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 19	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip Flexor; Strain
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	66%	37	34	9	4	15	19	7	30	20-26	77%	28-46	61%	17-37	46%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	35.3	11	42%	3	3	0	1	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-9	22%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	33.4	20	50%	2	7	2	0	4	5	0	2	3-3	100%	7-11	64%	1-8	13%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	27.7	32	67%	7	3	0	5	3	3	2	5	8-8	100%	12-17	71%	0-4	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	25.8	4	20%	5	0	1	0	0	2	4	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-6	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	22.8	3	38%	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-3	33%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	26.7	7	35%	7	12	3	0	2	3	1	6	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	0-4	0%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	24.6	27	84%	10	1	0	0	0	2	4	6	2-3	67%	5-8	63%	5-7	71%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	19.1	7	70%	8	1	0	1	0	1	3	5	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	13.8	3	38%	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	5.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	4.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Tightness/Illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	52%	46	30	6	7	11	22	15	31	18-21	86%	33-55	60%	10-44	23%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.31 65.5%

SAS

1.04 51.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

UTA

68%

SAS

72%

Midrange

UTA

54%

SAS

31%

3PT | Effective 3PT

UTA

25.5

46%

69%

SAS

15.0

23%

34%

Free Throws

UTA

77%

SAS

86%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Markkanen	29	85%	14.5 / 17
K. George	28	58%	14.0 / 24
W. Clayton	17	121%	8.5 / 7
J. Nurkić	14	50%	7.0 / 14
B. Sensabaugh	11	92%	5.5 / 6
C. Williams	8	50%	4.0 / 8
I. Collier	7	70%	3.5 / 5
K. Filipowski	6	38%	3.0 / 8
S. Mykhailiuk	3	150%	1.5 / 1
T. Hendricks	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	32	67%	16.0 / 24
K. Johnson	27	84%	13.5 / 16
S. Castle	20	50%	10.0 / 20
D. Vassell	11	42%	5.5 / 13
D. Harper	7	35%	3.5 / 10
L. Kornet	7	70%	3.5 / 5
J. Champagnie	4	20%	2.0 / 10
H. Barnes	3	38%	1.5 / 4
C. Bryant	3	38%	1.5 / 4
L. Waters	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	22 112.9 3 118.9	UTA 127.0 +11.8 SAS 115.2
Pace	2 103.4 13 100.5	UTA 99.5 SAS 99.5 +0.0
Avg. Poss. Time	27 13.8 18 14.2	UTA 14.5 SAS 14.5 −0.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.6% 7 55.9%	UTA 64.5% +16.0% SAS 48.5%
TO %	23 14.4% 4 12.5%	UTA 14.5% SAS 10.0% −4.5%
ORB %	12 26.2% 10 26.2%	UTA 18.4% SAS 33.3% +14.9%
FTrt	10 27.7 12 27.3	UTA 31.3 +10.1 SAS 21.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	2 69.6% 13 64.6%	UTA 75.6% +5.8% SAS 69.8%
STL %	14 8.5% 24 7.5%	UTA 9.0% +2.9% SAS 6.1%
BLK %	30 7.5% 10 10.0%	UTA 7.3% SAS 15.2% +7.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	18 56.4% 6 58.1%	UTA 65.5% +13.7% SAS 51.8%
Rim FG%	17 64.5% 9 65.8%	UTA 68.2% SAS 71.8% +3.6%
Mid FG%	8 44.4% 5 45.1%	UTA 54.2% +22.9% SAS 31.3%
3P %	25 34.5% 15 35.9%	UTA 45.9% +23.2% SAS 22.7%
FT %	13 78.6% 12 78.7%	UTA 76.9% SAS 85.7% +8.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	17 31.3% 7 34.4%	UTA 26.5% SAS 39.4% +12.9%
Mid Att. %	23 28.4% 7 23.4%	UTA 28.9% SAS 16.2% −12.8%
3P Att. %	21 40.3% 15 42.2%	UTA 44.6% +0.1% SAS 44.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	UTA	SAS
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	127	114
Rebounds	37	46
Assists	34	30
Steals	9	6
Blocks	4	7
Turnovers (Team)	15 (1)	11 (1)
Fouls	19	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (5)	15 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (7)	31 (0)
Field Goals	45-83	43-99
At-the-Rim FG	15-22	28-39
Midrange FG	13-24	5-16
2-Point FG	28-46	33-55
3-Point FG	17-37	10-44
Free Throws	20-26	18-21
Fast Break Pts	15	9
2nd Chance Pts	10	15
Points in Paint	48	58
Pts off Turnovers	20	24
Bench Points	40	44
Biggest Lead	17	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg