Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, December 28, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	15	Grizzlies	70%	121	112	102.8	109	115.3
	30	Wizards	30%	114	116	107.4	108	102.4

Prediction updated: Dec 28, 2025 11:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+22

-16

115

WAS

+21

-19

110

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.98 49.1%

WAS

1.06 53.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

15 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Santi Aldama #7 · C · 7'0" 215 · 25	35.5	14	44%	10	3	5	0	3	2	2	8	3-4	75%	4-10	40%	1-4	25%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	35.0	31	53%	8	1	1	4	3	4	4	4	7-9	78%	9-18	50%	2-7	29%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	27.5	11	50%	7	3	0	0	2	2	0	7	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	2-4	50%
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	27.5	21	62%	0	7	0	0	3	0	0	0	2-2	100%	5-11	45%	3-5	60%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	22.7	11	55%	6	3	0	0	2	1	1	5	3-3	100%	4-6	67%	0-3	0%

Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	26.7	8	36%	3	7	2	0	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-5	0%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	25.5	4	40%	7	1	1	3	0	1	2	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	21.1	5	50%	1	1	4	0	1	3	0	1	1-1	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	10.7	4	40%	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	7.8	3	75%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Soreness
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Patellar; Tendinitis
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; UCL Surgery Recovery
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	49%	43	27	14	8	16	17	10	33	17-21	81%	34-71	48%	9-32	28%

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15 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Santi Aldama #7 · C · 7'0" 215 · 25	35.5	14	44%	10	3	5	0	3	2	2	8	3-4	75%	4-10	40%	1-4	25%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	35.0	31	53%	8	1	1	4	3	4	4	4	7-9	78%	9-18	50%	2-7	29%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	27.5	11	50%	7	3	0	0	2	2	0	7	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	2-4	50%
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	27.5	21	62%	0	7	0	0	3	0	0	0	2-2	100%	5-11	45%	3-5	60%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	22.7	11	55%	6	3	0	0	2	1	1	5	3-3	100%	4-6	67%	0-3	0%

Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	26.7	8	36%	3	7	2	0	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-5	0%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	25.5	4	40%	7	1	1	3	0	1	2	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	21.1	5	50%	1	1	4	0	1	3	0	1	1-1	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	10.7	4	40%	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	7.8	3	75%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Soreness
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Patellar; Tendinitis
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; UCL Surgery Recovery
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	49%	43	27	14	8	16	17	10	33	17-21	81%	34-71	48%	9-32	28%

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30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	32.5	16	57%	4	5	0	0	4	1	0	4	5-5	100%	4-6	67%	1-6	17%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	28.7	14	47%	8	2	3	2	1	4	3	5	2-2	100%	6-12	50%	0-3	0%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	26.2	20	50%	9	1	2	6	1	3	3	6	1-1	100%	8-14	57%	1-6	17%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	25.5	14	58%	0	4	1	1	1	2	0	0	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Khris Middleton #22 · PF · 6'7" 222 · 34	22.6	10	56%	6	2	1	1	1	1	1	5	6-6	100%	2-6	33%	0-1	0%

Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	26.9	12	60%	4	7	1	0	8	2	1	3	2-3	67%	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	25.4	10	56%	12	0	1	1	2	3	4	8	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	21.7	14	78%	7	1	0	0	1	1	3	4	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Will Riley #27 · SF · 6'9" 180 · 20	18.9	0	0%	4	4	0	1	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-2	0%
Malaki Branham #8 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 23	11.1	6	60%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 24	0.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
AJ Johnson #4 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Strain
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip Flexor; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	53%	54	26	9	12	19	21	15	39	24-25	96%	34-66	52%	8-33	24%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	WAS
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	WAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.98 49.1%

WAS

1.06 53.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

49%

WAS

65%

Midrange

MEM

47%

WAS

40%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

13.5

28%

42%

WAS

12.0

24%

36%

Free Throws

MEM

81%

WAS

96%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jackson	31	53%	15.5 / 29
J. Morant	21	62%	10.5 / 17
S. Aldama	14	44%	7.0 / 16
J. Wells	11	50%	5.5 / 11
C. Coward	11	55%	5.5 / 10
C. Spencer	8	36%	4.0 / 11
G. Jackson	5	50%	2.5 / 5
C. Koloko	4	40%	2.0 / 5
K. Caldwell-Pope	4	40%	2.0 / 5
O. Prosper	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sarr	20	50%	10.0 / 20
C. McCollum	16	57%	8.0 / 14
B. Coulibaly	14	47%	7.0 / 15
T. Johnson	14	58%	7.0 / 12
M. Bagley	14	78%	7.0 / 9
B. Carrington	12	60%	6.0 / 10
K. Middleton	10	56%	5.0 / 9
J. Champagnie	10	56%	5.0 / 9
M. Branham	6	60%	3.0 / 5
W. Riley	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	23 112.4 29 109.7	MEM 102.8 WAS 107.4 +4.7
Pace	7 101.8 5 102.5	MEM 115.3 +12.9 WAS 102.4
Avg. Poss. Time	26 13.8 23 14.0	MEM 12.5 −1.6 WAS 14.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	24 53.3% 21 53.5%	MEM 46.1% WAS 46.5% +0.4%
TO %	22 14.3% 26 14.7%	MEM 12.5% −2.2% WAS 14.7%
ORB %	19 24.7% 21 24.0%	MEM 20.4% WAS 31.3% +10.9%
FTrt	21 25.1 26 23.5	MEM 20.4 WAS 25.3 +4.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	6 67.4% 24 59.9%	MEM 62.8% +0.9% WAS 61.9%
STL %	11 8.7% 22 7.8%	MEM 12.8% +4.5% WAS 8.3%
BLK %	14 9.1% 9 10.0%	MEM 12.1% WAS 16.9% +4.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	22 55.8% 26 55.4%	MEM 49.1% WAS 53.2% +4.1%
Rim FG%	26 62.8% 15 64.7%	MEM 48.8% WAS 64.5% +15.7%
Mid FG%	11 44.2% 26 41.3%	MEM 46.7% +6.7% WAS 40.0%
3P %	22 35.3% 16 35.9%	MEM 28.1% +3.9% WAS 24.2%
FT %	9 79.3% 23 76.6%	MEM 81.0% WAS 96.0% +15.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	26 28.6% 22 30.6%	MEM 39.8% +8.5% WAS 31.3%
Mid Att. %	19 27.8% 25 29.1%	MEM 29.1% −6.2% WAS 35.4%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 20 40.3%	MEM 31.1% WAS 33.3% +2.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	WAS
Possessions	109	108
Possession Minutes	22.7	25.3
Points	112	116
Rebounds	43	54
Assists	27	26
Steals	14	9
Blocks	8	12
Turnovers (Team)	16 (0)	19 (0)
Fouls	17	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (12)	15 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (4)	39 (2)
Field Goals	43-103	42-99
At-the-Rim FG	20-41	20-31
Midrange FG	14-30	14-35
2-Point FG	34-71	34-66
3-Point FG	9-32	8-33
Free Throws	17-21	24-25
Fast Break Pts	28	14
2nd Chance Pts	12	23
Points in Paint	62	58
Pts off Turnovers	29	24
Bench Points	24	42
Biggest Lead	10	9

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg