Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	27	Nuggets	34%	111	106	110.4	96	90.8
	16	Raptors	66%	116	103	106.2	97	102.5

Prediction updated: Jan 1, 2026 12:32 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+12

-10

TOR

+24

-8

113

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.08 54.1%

TOR

0.91 45.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

27 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	37.8	6	50%	7	2	1	0	2	5	3	4	6-6	100%	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.6	21	50%	7	6	1	1	2	0	1	6	7-7	100%	4-13	31%	2-5	40%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	36.0	24	55%	8	0	2	0	1	2	1	7	5-7	71%	8-13	62%	1-6	17%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	28.3	10	45%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-7	29%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	23.1	17	85%	9	4	1	3	1	2	1	8	7-8	88%	5-6	83%	0-0	-

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	30.1	9	35%	5	1	0	0	1	3	0	5	0-0	-	0-4	0%	3-9	33%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	25.4	8	57%	7	2	0	0	2	3	2	5	2-4	50%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	21.6	11	92%	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	54%	47	17	5	5	10	18	9	38	28-34	82%	24-46	52%	10-34	29%

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27 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	37.8	6	50%	7	2	1	0	2	5	3	4	6-6	100%	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.6	21	50%	7	6	1	1	2	0	1	6	7-7	100%	4-13	31%	2-5	40%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	36.0	24	55%	8	0	2	0	1	2	1	7	5-7	71%	8-13	62%	1-6	17%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	28.3	10	45%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-7	29%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	23.1	17	85%	9	4	1	3	1	2	1	8	7-8	88%	5-6	83%	0-0	-

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	30.1	9	35%	5	1	0	0	1	3	0	5	0-0	-	0-4	0%	3-9	33%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	25.4	8	57%	7	2	0	0	2	3	2	5	2-4	50%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	21.6	11	92%	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	54%	47	17	5	5	10	18	9	38	28-34	82%	24-46	52%	10-34	29%

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16 Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandon Ingram #3 · SF · 6'8" 190 · 28	36.3	30	65%	8	1	0	0	1	4	1	7	3-4	75%	6-14	43%	5-7	71%
Immanuel Quickley #5 · PG · 6'2" 190 · 27	34.3	22	52%	3	4	1	0	0	5	0	3	8-10	80%	1-5	20%	4-11	36%
Scottie Barnes #4 · C · 6'8" 237 · 24	33.2	20	63%	14	10	1	1	0	4	3	11	4-4	100%	5-10	50%	2-4	50%
RJ Barrett #9 · SG · 6'6" 214 · 26	24.4	17	61%	6	3	0	0	2	1	2	4	2-3	67%	6-9	67%	1-4	25%
Ochai Agbaji #30 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	11.1	2	50%	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%

Collin Murray-Boyles #12 · PF · 6'7" 245 · 21	26.0	6	27%	9	2	2	2	1	5	5	4	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-4	0%
Ja'Kobe Walter #14 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 21	23.2	2	17%	3	0	0	0	1	2	2	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-5	0%
Jamal Shead #23 · PG · 6'1" 200 · 23	21.2	2	13%	0	5	1	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-4	0%
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	12.3	0	0%	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-3	0%
Gradey Dick #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 22	11.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Jamison Battle #77 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	6.3	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Mo Bamba #11 · C · 7'0" 231 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jonathan Mogbo #2 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Garrett Temple #17 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 40	DNP – Coach's Decision
A.J. Lawson #0 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Alijah Martin #55 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Chucky Hepburn #24 · PG · 6'0" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jakob Poeltl #19 · C · 7'0" 253 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Back; Lower - strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	46%	50	27	6	4	8	25	17	33	17-21	81%	25-55	45%	12-45	27%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.08 54.1%

TOR

0.91 45.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

68%

TOR

65%

Midrange

DEN

38%

TOR

31%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

15.0

29%

44%

TOR

18.0

27%

40%

Free Throws

DEN

82%

TOR

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Watson	24	55%	12.0 / 22
J. Murray	21	50%	10.5 / 21
J. Valančiūnas	17	85%	8.5 / 10
D. Holmes	11	92%	5.5 / 6
J. Pickett	10	45%	5.0 / 11
T. Hardaway	9	35%	4.5 / 13
B. Brown	8	57%	4.0 / 7
S. Jones	6	50%	3.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Ingram	30	65%	15.0 / 23
I. Quickley	22	52%	11.0 / 21
S. Barnes	20	63%	10.0 / 16
R. Barrett	17	61%	8.5 / 14
C. Murray-Boyles	6	27%	3.0 / 11
O. Agbaji	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Walter	2	17%	1.0 / 6
J. Shead	2	13%	1.0 / 8
J. Battle	2	50%	1.0 / 2
S. Mamukelashvili	0	-	0.0 / 5
G. Dick	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 15 115.1	DEN 110.4 +4.2 TOR 106.2
Pace	19 99.4 22 99.1	DEN 90.8 TOR 102.5 +11.7
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 19 14.1	DEN 15.9 TOR 14.1 −1.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 16 54.6%	DEN 48.8% +5.8% TOR 43.0%
TO %	3 12.1% 7 12.9%	DEN 10.4% TOR 6.8% −3.6%
ORB %	24 23.6% 16 25.5%	DEN 21.4% TOR 30.9% +9.5%
FTrt	4 29.4 16 26.5	DEN 42.5 +21.5 TOR 21.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 3 69.2%	DEN 50.0% TOR 73.0% +23.0%
STL %	30 6.8% 8 8.8%	DEN 5.2% TOR 6.2% +1.0%
BLK %	29 7.6% 12 9.6%	DEN 9.1% +0.4% TOR 8.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 16 56.6%	DEN 54.1% +8.5% TOR 45.6%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 6 66.5%	DEN 68.2% +3.0% TOR 65.2%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 16 43.7%	DEN 37.5% +6.2% TOR 31.3%
3P %	1 39.6% 21 35.4%	DEN 29.4% +2.7% TOR 26.7%
FT %	5 80.8% 22 76.9%	DEN 82.4% +1.4% TOR 81.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 10 32.9%	DEN 27.5% +4.5% TOR 23.0%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 27 30.7%	DEN 30.0% −2.0% TOR 32.0%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 25 36.3%	DEN 42.5% TOR 45.0% +2.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	TOR
Possessions	96	97
Possession Minutes	25.4	22.7
Points	106	103
Rebounds	47	50
Assists	17	27
Steals	5	6
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	10 (1)	8 (0)
Fouls	18	25
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (3)	17 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (4)	33 (3)
Field Goals	34-80	37-100
At-the-Rim FG	15-22	15-23
Midrange FG	9-24	10-32
2-Point FG	24-46	25-55
3-Point FG	10-34	12-45
Free Throws	28-34	17-21
Fast Break Pts	13	20
2nd Chance Pts	12	16
Points in Paint	42	46
Pts off Turnovers	7	11
Bench Points	28	12
Biggest Lead	13	4

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg