Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, January 2, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Spurs	67%	119	123	116.0	106	101.6
	23	Pacers	33%	113	113	106.6	106	110.8

Prediction updated: Jan 3, 2026 12:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+19

-12

113

IND

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.10 54.9%

IND

1.20 60.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	33.4	19	48%	8	8	2	0	3	4	1	7	6-7	86%	5-14	36%	1-3	33%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	32.4	24	60%	7	4	1	0	3	2	2	5	2-3	67%	8-10	80%	2-9	22%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	27.3	9	113%	5	3	0	0	1	2	1	4	3-4	75%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	25.1	9	30%	8	1	1	0	0	2	2	6	3-4	75%	0-2	0%	2-11	18%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.0	5	31%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-6	17%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	29.1	22	69%	2	1	2	1	1	0	1	1	3-3	100%	8-12	67%	1-3	33%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	26.4	16	80%	6	1	1	0	2	2	1	5	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	3-3	100%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	20.0	10	71%	5	3	1	1	2	2	3	2	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	1-3	33%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	14.3	7	88%	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1-1	100%	0-0	-	2-4	50%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	11.0	2	20%	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	55%	49	23	8	2	12	17	12	37	22-28	79%	31-52	60%	13-46	28%

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8 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	33.4	19	48%	8	8	2	0	3	4	1	7	6-7	86%	5-14	36%	1-3	33%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	32.4	24	60%	7	4	1	0	3	2	2	5	2-3	67%	8-10	80%	2-9	22%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	27.3	9	113%	5	3	0	0	1	2	1	4	3-4	75%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	25.1	9	30%	8	1	1	0	0	2	2	6	3-4	75%	0-2	0%	2-11	18%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.0	5	31%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-6	17%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	29.1	22	69%	2	1	2	1	1	0	1	1	3-3	100%	8-12	67%	1-3	33%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	26.4	16	80%	6	1	1	0	2	2	1	5	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	3-3	100%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	20.0	10	71%	5	3	1	1	2	2	3	2	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	1-3	33%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	14.3	7	88%	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1-1	100%	0-0	-	2-4	50%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	11.0	2	20%	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	55%	49	23	8	2	12	17	12	37	22-28	79%	31-52	60%	13-46	28%

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23 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	35.9	23	61%	9	5	2	0	2	3	0	9	3-3	100%	10-16	63%	0-2	0%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	35.5	19	79%	6	6	2	0	2	4	0	6	3-5	60%	5-7	71%	2-3	67%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	29.1	9	64%	3	3	0	1	3	6	0	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-2	50%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	27.8	16	73%	6	1	1	1	3	3	0	6	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	4-8	50%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 24	19.8	2	17%	5	3	0	0	1	5	0	5	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-1	0%

Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	19.6	2	33%	2	2	0	2	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	18.1	14	54%	2	3	2	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	7-11	64%	0-2	0%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	16.6	8	67%	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	14.4	7	58%	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-4	25%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	11.2	11	92%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	10.1	2	33%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	0.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	0.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	0.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Concussion
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	60%	39	26	9	4	14	28	1	38	13-15	87%	32-56	57%	12-30	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	IND
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	IND

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.10 54.9%

IND

1.20 60.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

59%

IND

89%

Midrange

SAS

62%

IND

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

19.5

28%

42%

IND

18.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

SAS

79%

IND

87%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Fox	24	60%	12.0 / 20
D. Harper	22	69%	11.0 / 16
S. Castle	19	48%	9.5 / 20
K. Johnson	16	80%	8.0 / 10
K. Olynyk	10	71%	5.0 / 7
L. Kornet	9	113%	4.5 / 4
J. Champagnie	9	30%	4.5 / 15
L. Waters	7	88%	3.5 / 4
H. Barnes	5	31%	2.5 / 8
C. Bryant	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	23	61%	11.5 / 19
A. Nembhard	19	79%	9.5 / 12
M. Potter	16	73%	8.0 / 11
T. McConnell	14	54%	7.0 / 13
J. Walker	11	92%	5.5 / 6
A. Nesmith	9	64%	4.5 / 7
B. Sheppard	8	67%	4.0 / 6
J. Furphy	7	58%	3.5 / 6
B. Mathurin	2	17%	1.0 / 6
J. Huff	2	33%	1.0 / 3
K. Jones	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 28 110.1	SAS 116.0 +9.4 IND 106.6
Pace	13 100.5 10 101.4	SAS 101.6 IND 110.8 +9.1
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 25 13.9	SAS 14.2 IND 13.0 −1.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 23 53.3%	SAS 51.5% IND 58.1% +6.6%
TO %	4 12.5% 14 13.6%	SAS 10.5% −2.6% IND 13.1%
ORB %	10 26.2% 29 21.7%	SAS 24.0% +21.4% IND 2.6%
FTrt	12 27.3 20 25.2	SAS 28.6 +11.2 IND 17.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 5 67.8%	SAS 52.3% IND 59.1% +6.8%
STL %	24 7.5% 28 7.2%	SAS 7.5% IND 8.5% +1.0%
BLK %	10 10.0% 26 8.1%	SAS 3.6% IND 7.7% +4.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 24 55.4%	SAS 54.9% IND 60.1% +5.2%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 25 62.9%	SAS 59.0% IND 88.9% +29.9%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 19 42.7%	SAS 61.5% +19.4% IND 42.1%
3P %	15 35.9% 18 35.6%	SAS 28.3% IND 40.0% +11.7%
FT %	12 78.7% 17 77.6%	SAS 78.6% IND 86.7% +8.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 23 30.3%	SAS 39.8% +18.9% IND 20.9%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 18 27.5%	SAS 13.3% −30.9% IND 44.2%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 14 42.2%	SAS 46.9% +12.1% IND 34.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	IND
Possessions	106	106
Possession Minutes	25.0	23.0
Points	123	113
Rebounds	49	39
Assists	23	26
Steals	8	9
Blocks	2	4
Turnovers (Team)	12 (1)	14 (0)
Fouls	17	28
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (7)	1 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (4)	38 (3)
Field Goals	44-98	44-86
At-the-Rim FG	23-39	16-18
Midrange FG	8-13	16-38
2-Point FG	31-52	32-56
3-Point FG	13-46	12-30
Free Throws	22-28	13-15
Fast Break Pts	7	9
2nd Chance Pts	22	3
Points in Paint	60	50
Pts off Turnovers	16	16
Bench Points	57	44
Biggest Lead	19	9

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg