Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, January 2, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	1	Thunder	78%	114	131	126.0	104	115.0
	18	Warriors	22%	104	94	90.4	104	95.0

Prediction updated: Jan 3, 2026 03:00 AM

Scoring Opportunities

OKC

+13

-13

104

GSW

+15

-16

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.26 63.0%

GSW

0.91 45.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	28.2	30	65%	1	7	0	0	3	1	0	1	7-7	100%	7-15	47%	3-5	60%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	26.2	11	110%	3	0	1	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-4	75%
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	26.1	15	75%	15	4	1	4	2	1	2	13	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	20.6	12	50%	6	2	0	0	1	4	2	4	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-2	0%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	14.2	2	25%	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%

Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	27.1	15	63%	3	2	0	1	2	3	0	3	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	3-6	50%
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	25.1	11	79%	2	6	2	0	3	2	1	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-1	100%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	21.6	15	75%	11	2	2	0	1	3	3	8	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	19.9	5	50%	2	4	0	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	12.0	2	50%	3	3	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	10.7	4	50%	1	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	8.4	9	64%	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	63%	51	34	10	5	13	21	9	42	19-19	100%	32-54	59%	16-38	42%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	28.2	30	65%	1	7	0	0	3	1	0	1	7-7	100%	7-15	47%	3-5	60%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	26.2	11	110%	3	0	1	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-4	75%
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	26.1	15	75%	15	4	1	4	2	1	2	13	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	20.6	12	50%	6	2	0	0	1	4	2	4	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-2	0%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	14.2	2	25%	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%

Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	27.1	15	63%	3	2	0	1	2	3	0	3	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	3-6	50%
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	25.1	11	79%	2	6	2	0	3	2	1	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-1	100%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	21.6	15	75%	11	2	2	0	1	3	3	8	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	19.9	5	50%	2	4	0	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	12.0	2	50%	3	3	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	10.7	4	50%	1	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	8.4	9	64%	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	63%	51	34	10	5	13	21	9	42	19-19	100%	32-54	59%	16-38	42%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

18 Golden State Warriors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Will Richard #3 · SF · 6'3" 206 · 23	27.2	13	43%	5	1	1	0	1	0	3	2	1-1	100%	3-9	33%	2-6	33%
Moses Moody #4 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 24	27.0	13	54%	2	0	1	0	3	3	0	2	0-1	0%	5-8	63%	1-4	25%
Brandin Podziemski #2 · PG · 6'4" 205 · 23	26.3	12	40%	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	4	3-5	60%	3-9	33%	1-4	25%
Gui Santos #15 · PF · 6'7" 185 · 24	26.2	9	64%	8	0	0	1	3	1	0	8	4-6	67%	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Quinten Post #21 · C · 7'0" 238 · 26	22.8	11	50%	3	2	1	0	1	5	2	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	1-6	17%

Pat Spencer #61 · PG · 6'2" 205 · 29	31.2	3	19%	3	11	1	0	3	1	2	1	0-0	-	0-4	0%	1-4	25%
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · C · 6'9" 245 · 26	24.2	7	39%	9	3	1	1	1	3	5	4	5-6	83%	1-6	17%	0-0	-
Buddy Hield #7 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 33	23.7	11	50%	2	1	2	0	2	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-9	33%
Al Horford #20 · C · 6'8" 240 · 40	15.8	13	93%	6	0	0	2	1	1	1	5	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	3-5	60%
Gary Payton II #0 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 33	15.6	2	20%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Jonathan Kuminga #1 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Soreness
LJ Cryer #18 · PG · 6'0" 200 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Malevy Leons #33 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stephen Curry #30 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 38	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Jimmy Butler III #10 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| General; Illness
De'Anthony Melton #8 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Seth Curry #31 · SG · 6'1" 185 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sciatic Nerve; Irritation
Draymond Green #23 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 36	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	94	46%	43	23	8	5	16	18	14	29	17-23	74%	19-46	41%	13-44	30%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	GSW
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	GSW

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.26 63.0%

GSW

0.91 45.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

OKC

79%

GSW

48%

Midrange

OKC

38%

GSW

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

OKC

24.0

42%

63%

GSW

19.5

30%

44%

Free Throws

OKC

100%

GSW

74%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	30	65%	15.0 / 23
C. Holmgren	15	75%	7.5 / 10
A. Wiggins	15	63%	7.5 / 12
B. Carlson	15	75%	7.5 / 10
J. Williams	12	50%	6.0 / 12
L. Dort	11	110%	5.5 / 5
A. Mitchell	11	79%	5.5 / 7
C. Youngblood	9	64%	4.5 / 7
I. Joe	5	50%	2.5 / 5
A. Caruso	4	50%	2.0 / 4
C. Wallace	2	25%	1.0 / 4
K. Williams	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Warriors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
W. Richard	13	43%	6.5 / 15
M. Moody	13	54%	6.5 / 12
A. Horford	13	93%	6.5 / 7
B. Podziemski	12	40%	6.0 / 15
Q. Post	11	50%	5.5 / 11
B. Hield	11	50%	5.5 / 11
G. Santos	9	64%	4.5 / 7
T. Jackson-Davis	7	39%	3.5 / 9
P. Spencer	3	19%	1.5 / 8
G. Payton	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 117.6 19 114.0	OKC 126.0 +35.6 GSW 90.4
Pace	15 100.3 18 99.9	OKC 115.0 +20.0 GSW 95.0
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.1 10 14.7	OKC 12.5 −2.6 GSW 15.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.1% 13 55.0%	OKC 60.9% +18.1% GSW 42.8%
TO %	1 11.8% 28 14.9%	OKC 12.2% −2.3% GSW 14.5%
ORB %	28 22.3% 14 25.8%	OKC 23.7% GSW 25.0% +1.3%
FTrt	17 26.1 24 23.8	OKC 20.7 GSW 25.6 +4.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	25 59.8% 1 70.6%	OKC 70.8% GSW 71.9% +1.1%
STL %	4 9.6% 3 9.6%	OKC 9.6% +1.9% GSW 7.7%
BLK %	2 11.0% 27 8.0%	OKC 10.9% +1.6% GSW 9.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 58.5% 11 57.1%	OKC 63.0% +17.4% GSW 45.6%
Rim FG%	11 65.2% 5 66.7%	OKC 78.6% +30.8% GSW 47.8%
Mid FG%	1 47.6% 22 42.1%	OKC 38.5% +3.7% GSW 34.8%
3P %	9 36.5% 20 35.6%	OKC 42.1% +12.6% GSW 29.5%
FT %	3 81.7% 6 80.7%	OKC 100.0% +26.1% GSW 73.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	16 31.3% 24 29.5%	OKC 30.4% +4.9% GSW 25.6%
Mid Att. %	15 26.1% 3 20.8%	OKC 28.3% GSW 25.6% −2.7%
3P Att. %	13 42.6% 1 49.7%	OKC 41.3% GSW 48.9% +7.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	OKC	GSW
Possessions	104	104
Possession Minutes	21.7	26.3
Points	131	94
Rebounds	51	43
Assists	34	23
Steals	10	8
Blocks	5	5
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls	21	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (4)	14 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	42 (3)	29 (2)
Field Goals	48-92	32-90
At-the-Rim FG	22-28	11-23
Midrange FG	10-26	8-23
2-Point FG	32-54	19-46
3-Point FG	16-38	13-44
Free Throws	19-19	17-23
Fast Break Pts	31	17
2nd Chance Pts	27	12
Points in Paint	56	28
Pts off Turnovers	26	15
Bench Points	61	36
Biggest Lead	41	1

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg