Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 3, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	15	Hawks	41%	112	117	108.3	108	117.6
	16	Raptors	59%	115	134	125.2	107	98.9

Prediction updated: Jan 4, 2026 12:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+12

-15

105

TOR

+12

-14

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.14 56.8%

TOR

1.28 63.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

15 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	37.1	30	63%	7	9	0	0	4	1	2	5	6-9	67%	6-12	50%	4-9	44%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	35.9	31	74%	4	3	2	0	6	1	0	4	5-5	100%	4-8	50%	6-11	55%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	34.2	20	71%	5	12	2	2	1	3	1	4	2-2	100%	9-12	75%	0-1	0%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	30.3	4	22%	3	4	1	1	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	30.2	8	33%	7	0	0	0	1	3	1	6	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	0-3	0%

Vít Krejčí #27 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 26	23.1	13	108%	2	2	2	0	1	5	0	2	1-1	100%	0-2	0%	4-4	100%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	20.4	0	0%	4	1	2	0	0	0	2	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	19.0	11	61%	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	8.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Malik Williams #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Luke Kennard #3 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Back; Soreness
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
RayJ Dennis #4 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quad; Contusion
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	57%	36	32	10	3	15	19	7	29	16-19	84%	25-52	48%	17-39	44%

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15 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	37.1	30	63%	7	9	0	0	4	1	2	5	6-9	67%	6-12	50%	4-9	44%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	35.9	31	74%	4	3	2	0	6	1	0	4	5-5	100%	4-8	50%	6-11	55%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	34.2	20	71%	5	12	2	2	1	3	1	4	2-2	100%	9-12	75%	0-1	0%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	30.3	4	22%	3	4	1	1	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	30.2	8	33%	7	0	0	0	1	3	1	6	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	0-3	0%

Vít Krejčí #27 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 26	23.1	13	108%	2	2	2	0	1	5	0	2	1-1	100%	0-2	0%	4-4	100%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	20.4	0	0%	4	1	2	0	0	0	2	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	19.0	11	61%	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	8.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Malik Williams #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Luke Kennard #3 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Back; Soreness
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
RayJ Dennis #4 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quad; Contusion
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	57%	36	32	10	3	15	19	7	29	16-19	84%	25-52	48%	17-39	44%

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16 Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandon Ingram #3 · SF · 6'8" 190 · 28	33.8	29	81%	9	1	2	2	3	2	1	8	6-6	100%	10-13	77%	1-2	50%
Immanuel Quickley #5 · PG · 6'2" 190 · 27	32.6	15	54%	2	7	1	0	1	3	0	2	3-3	100%	3-5	60%	2-8	25%
Scottie Barnes #4 · PF · 6'8" 237 · 24	32.4	20	63%	7	4	3	2	2	1	0	7	4-5	80%	8-14	57%	0-0	-
RJ Barrett #9 · SG · 6'6" 214 · 26	29.9	29	69%	4	1	1	0	3	2	1	3	3-4	75%	7-11	64%	4-8	50%
Collin Murray-Boyles #12 · C · 6'7" 245 · 21	25.9	6	60%	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-

Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	31.9	13	65%	12	8	1	3	0	1	4	8	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	1-5	20%
Ja'Kobe Walter #14 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 21	16.9	5	83%	2	1	0	0	0	4	0	2	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Gradey Dick #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 22	15.2	7	58%	6	0	1	0	1	2	2	4	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
Jamal Shead #23 · PG · 6'1" 200 · 23	14.3	10	63%	1	4	0	0	3	1	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-5	40%
Ochai Agbaji #30 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	4.2	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mo Bamba #11 · C · 7'0" 231 · 28	1.6	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Alijah Martin #55 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 24	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jamison Battle #77 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jonathan Mogbo #2 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Garrett Temple #17 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 40	DNP – Coach's Decision
A.J. Lawson #0 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Chucky Hepburn #24 · PG · 6'0" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jakob Poeltl #19 · C · 7'0" 253 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Back; Lower - strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	134	64%	48	28	10	8	14	20	10	38	24-26	92%	37-61	61%	12-31	39%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	TOR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.14 56.8%

TOR

1.28 63.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

64%

TOR

61%

Midrange

ATL

33%

TOR

60%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

25.5

44%

65%

TOR

18.0

39%

58%

Free Throws

ATL

84%

TOR

92%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Alexander-Walker	31	74%	15.5 / 21
J. Johnson	30	63%	15.0 / 24
D. Daniels	20	71%	10.0 / 14
V. Krejčí	13	108%	6.5 / 6
K. Wallace	11	61%	5.5 / 9
Z. Risacher	8	33%	4.0 / 12
O. Okongwu	4	22%	2.0 / 9
M. Gueye	0	-	0.0 / 2
C. Houstan	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Ingram	29	81%	14.5 / 18
R. Barrett	29	69%	14.5 / 21
S. Barnes	20	63%	10.0 / 16
I. Quickley	15	54%	7.5 / 14
S. Mamukelashvili	13	65%	6.5 / 10
J. Shead	10	63%	5.0 / 8
G. Dick	7	58%	3.5 / 6
C. Murray-Boyles	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Walter	5	83%	2.5 / 3
M. Bamba	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	14 115.1 15 115.1	ATL 108.3 TOR 125.2 +16.9
Pace	4 102.5 22 99.1	ATL 117.6 +18.6 TOR 98.9
Avg. Poss. Time	29 13.5 19 14.1	ATL 12.2 −2.3 TOR 14.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	10 55.4% 16 54.6%	ATL 55.5% TOR 59.8% +4.3%
TO %	8 13.0% 7 12.9%	ATL 13.9% TOR 11.9% −2.0%
ORB %	20 24.3% 16 25.5%	ATL 15.6% TOR 25.6% +10.0%
FTrt	27 23.4 16 26.5	ATL 20.9 TOR 28.3 +7.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 69.1% 3 69.2%	ATL 76.2% +19.1% TOR 57.1%
STL %	6 9.1% 8 8.8%	ATL 9.3% TOR 9.3%
BLK %	18 8.8% 12 9.6%	ATL 4.9% TOR 15.4% +10.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	14 56.9% 16 56.6%	ATL 56.8% TOR 63.8% +7.0%
Rim FG%	21 63.3% 6 66.5%	ATL 64.0% +2.7% TOR 61.3%
Mid FG%	6 44.6% 16 43.7%	ATL 33.3% TOR 60.0% +26.7%
3P %	5 37.1% 21 35.4%	ATL 43.6% +4.9% TOR 38.7%
FT %	20 77.4% 22 76.9%	ATL 84.2% TOR 92.3% +8.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	13 32.1% 10 32.9%	ATL 27.5% TOR 33.7% +6.2%
Mid Att. %	9 25.0% 27 30.7%	ATL 29.7% −2.9% TOR 32.6%
3P Att. %	11 42.9% 25 36.3%	ATL 42.9% +9.2% TOR 33.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	TOR
Possessions	108	107
Possession Minutes	22.0	26.0
Points	117	134
Rebounds	36	48
Assists	32	28
Steals	10	10
Blocks	3	8
Turnovers (Team)	15 (1)	14 (0)
Fouls	19	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (5)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	29 (3)	38 (3)
Field Goals	42-91	49-92
At-the-Rim FG	16-25	19-31
Midrange FG	9-27	18-30
2-Point FG	25-52	37-61
3-Point FG	17-39	12-31
Free Throws	16-19	24-26
Fast Break Pts	21	19
2nd Chance Pts	15	12
Points in Paint	46	60
Pts off Turnovers	20	23
Bench Points	24	35
Biggest Lead	6	17

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg