Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 3, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	24	Blazers	28%	113	115	117.3	98	90.5
	10	Spurs	72%	120	110	112.2	98	106.8

Prediction updated: Jan 4, 2026 01:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

POR

+21

-11

108

SAS

+14

-6

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.07 53.7%

SAS

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

24 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Deni Avdija #8 · SG · 6'8" 228 · 25	38.8	29	52%	10	10	0	1	2	2	3	7	8-11	73%	6-16	38%	3-6	50%
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	35.8	20	83%	8	1	1	0	4	2	2	6	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	5-9	56%
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 22	34.3	24	80%	12	4	0	0	0	5	6	6	3-6	50%	6-7	86%	3-5	60%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · PG · 6'5" 210 · 23	28.3	6	19%	3	3	1	0	4	1	0	3	0-0	-	3-12	25%	0-4	0%
Kris Murray #24 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 25	27.2	6	60%	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%

Caleb Love #2 · SG · 6'3" 212 · 24	27.9	16	53%	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	1-4	25%	3-4	75%	3-9	33%
Sidy Cissoko #91 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 22	22.3	7	50%	6	1	0	0	0	2	2	4	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 22	14.7	5	50%	2	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Yang Hansen #16 · C · 7'1" 270 · 21	10.7	2	50%	2	1	0	2	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Javonte Cooke #18 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendinopathy
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Blake Wesley #1 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Fracture
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendonitis
Jrue Holiday #5 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles Tendon; Injury Management
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	54%	52	24	3	7	11	16	16	36	16-27	59%	21-47	45%	19-45	42%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

24 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Deni Avdija #8 · SG · 6'8" 228 · 25	38.8	29	52%	10	10	0	1	2	2	3	7	8-11	73%	6-16	38%	3-6	50%
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	35.8	20	83%	8	1	1	0	4	2	2	6	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	5-9	56%
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 22	34.3	24	80%	12	4	0	0	0	5	6	6	3-6	50%	6-7	86%	3-5	60%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · PG · 6'5" 210 · 23	28.3	6	19%	3	3	1	0	4	1	0	3	0-0	-	3-12	25%	0-4	0%
Kris Murray #24 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 25	27.2	6	60%	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%

Caleb Love #2 · SG · 6'3" 212 · 24	27.9	16	53%	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	1-4	25%	3-4	75%	3-9	33%
Sidy Cissoko #91 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 22	22.3	7	50%	6	1	0	0	0	2	2	4	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 22	14.7	5	50%	2	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Yang Hansen #16 · C · 7'1" 270 · 21	10.7	2	50%	2	1	0	2	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Javonte Cooke #18 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendinopathy
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Blake Wesley #1 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Fracture
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendonitis
Jrue Holiday #5 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles Tendon; Injury Management
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	54%	52	24	3	7	11	16	16	36	16-27	59%	21-47	45%	19-45	42%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

10 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	36.8	16	57%	5	9	1	0	2	4	1	4	6-7	86%	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	34.5	19	59%	6	4	3	0	0	4	1	5	3-4	75%	5-10	50%	2-4	50%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	33.4	20	71%	10	4	0	0	1	1	2	8	0-0	-	4-5	80%	4-9	44%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	31.9	14	58%	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	3	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-7	29%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	31.1	23	88%	8	3	0	5	0	6	4	4	3-3	100%	10-12	83%	0-0	-

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.8	5	31%	8	1	2	0	1	0	1	7	3-4	75%	1-6	17%	0-0	-
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	22.9	6	25%	3	3	1	2	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-9	0%	2-3	67%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	14.5	5	25%	3	2	1	0	0	2	1	2	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	0-5	0%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	5.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	5.2	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	52%	48	27	8	4	6	20	12	36	20-23	87%	30-62	48%	10-31	32%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	POR	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	POR	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.07 53.7%

SAS

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

POR

53%

SAS

58%

Midrange

POR

23%

SAS

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

POR

28.5

42%

63%

SAS

15.0

32%

48%

Free Throws

POR

59%

SAS

87%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Avdija	29	52%	14.5 / 28
D. Clingan	24	80%	12.0 / 15
T. Camara	20	83%	10.0 / 12
C. Love	16	53%	8.0 / 15
S. Cissoko	7	50%	3.5 / 7
S. Sharpe	6	19%	3.0 / 16
K. Murray	6	60%	3.0 / 5
R. Rupert	5	50%	2.5 / 5
Y. Hansen	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Kornet	23	88%	11.5 / 13
J. Champagnie	20	71%	10.0 / 14
D. Fox	19	59%	9.5 / 16
S. Castle	16	57%	8.0 / 14
H. Barnes	14	58%	7.0 / 12
D. Harper	6	25%	3.0 / 12
K. Johnson	5	31%	2.5 / 8
K. Olynyk	5	25%	2.5 / 10
C. Bryant	2	33%	1.0 / 3
L. Waters	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.2 3 118.9	POR 117.3 +5.1 SAS 112.2
Pace	8 101.6 13 100.5	POR 90.5 SAS 106.8 +16.3
Avg. Poss. Time	17 14.2 19 14.1	POR 15.9 SAS 13.5 −2.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	22 53.4% 8 55.9%	POR 53.8% +5.4% SAS 48.4%
TO %	30 16.1% 4 12.5%	POR 9.6% SAS 5.5% −4.1%
ORB %	2 31.3% 11 26.2%	POR 30.8% +5.8% SAS 25.0%
FTrt	9 28.0 12 27.3	POR 29.3 +4.6 SAS 24.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	18 61.6% 13 64.6%	POR 60.0% SAS 67.5% +7.5%
STL %	20 8.1% 25 7.4%	POR 3.1% SAS 8.2% +5.1%
BLK %	7 10.3% 17 9.1%	POR 11.3% +2.8% SAS 8.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	23 55.6% 6 58.1%	POR 53.7% +1.8% SAS 51.9%
Rim FG%	19 63.9% 9 65.7%	POR 52.9% SAS 58.3% +5.4%
Mid FG%	29 37.4% 5 45.1%	POR 23.1% SAS 34.6% +11.5%
3P %	28 34.3% 15 35.9%	POR 42.2% +9.9% SAS 32.3%
FT %	24 76.5% 12 78.7%	POR 59.3% SAS 87.0% +27.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	5 35.6% 7 34.4%	POR 37.0% SAS 38.7% +1.8%
Mid Att. %	2 17.6% 7 23.4%	POR 14.1% −13.8% SAS 28.0%
3P Att. %	3 46.8% 15 42.2%	POR 48.9% +15.6% SAS 33.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.26 and 2.26.

Game Totals	POR	SAS
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	26.0	22.0
Points	115	110
Rebounds	52	48
Assists	24	27
Steals	3	8
Blocks	7	4
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	6 (0)
Fouls	16	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (5)	12 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (5)	36 (1)
Field Goals	40-92	40-93
At-the-Rim FG	18-34	21-36
Midrange FG	3-13	9-26
2-Point FG	21-47	30-62
3-Point FG	19-45	10-31
Free Throws	16-27	20-23
Fast Break Pts	10	13
2nd Chance Pts	26	18
Points in Paint	42	54
Pts off Turnovers	13	10
Bench Points	30	18
Biggest Lead	15	3

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg