Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 4, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	25	Pacers	35%	110	127	125.7	101	105.9
	17	Magic	65%	114	135	133.7	101	96.5

Prediction updated: Jan 4, 2026 08:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

-11

ORL

-7

100

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.30 64.8%

ORL

1.35 67.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

25 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	36.5	34	77%	7	5	0	0	1	3	1	6	4-4	100%	12-17	71%	2-4	50%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	35.5	20	53%	1	11	0	0	1	3	0	1	4-6	67%	5-9	56%	2-7	29%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	34.1	25	69%	4	8	0	2	4	4	0	4	4-4	100%	3-5	60%	5-11	45%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	29.2	11	79%	10	2	1	0	1	3	0	10	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	12.8	2	20%	5	1	1	0	1	0	2	3	0-2	0%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	24.4	8	67%	3	2	1	0	0	4	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	20.8	10	56%	4	5	0	0	2	2	2	2	0-0	-	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	17.2	11	92%	5	1	0	0	1	6	2	3	0-1	0%	4-4	100%	1-2	50%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	16.4	6	75%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-2	100%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	7.2	0	0%	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	6.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Sprain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Concussion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	65%	41	38	3	3	11	26	7	34	16-21	76%	33-53	62%	15-34	44%

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25 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	36.5	34	77%	7	5	0	0	1	3	1	6	4-4	100%	12-17	71%	2-4	50%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	35.5	20	53%	1	11	0	0	1	3	0	1	4-6	67%	5-9	56%	2-7	29%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	34.1	25	69%	4	8	0	2	4	4	0	4	4-4	100%	3-5	60%	5-11	45%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	29.2	11	79%	10	2	1	0	1	3	0	10	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	12.8	2	20%	5	1	1	0	1	0	2	3	0-2	0%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	24.4	8	67%	3	2	1	0	0	4	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	20.8	10	56%	4	5	0	0	2	2	2	2	0-0	-	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	17.2	11	92%	5	1	0	0	1	6	2	3	0-1	0%	4-4	100%	1-2	50%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	16.4	6	75%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-2	100%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	7.2	0	0%	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	6.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Sprain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Concussion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	65%	41	38	3	3	11	26	7	34	16-21	76%	33-53	62%	15-34	44%

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17 Orlando Magic

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Desmond Bane #3 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 28	36.5	31	86%	6	6	2	1	2	4	1	5	4-4	100%	9-11	82%	3-6	50%
Paolo Banchero #5 · PF · 6'10" 250 · 23	36.1	28	64%	12	5	1	0	1	1	0	12	7-9	78%	6-13	46%	3-5	60%
Anthony Black #0 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 22	35.5	27	68%	3	10	1	4	1	4	0	3	8-10	80%	5-9	56%	3-7	43%
Wendell Carter Jr. #34 · C · 6'10" 270 · 27	31.5	18	64%	12	4	2	0	1	2	3	9	5-8	63%	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Tristan da Silva #23 · SF · 6'8" 217 · 25	28.4	10	63%	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-4	50%

Jase Richardson #11 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 20	26.9	12	75%	1	4	0	0	0	3	0	1	0-1	0%	3-4	75%	2-5	40%
Goga Bitadze #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 26	16.5	2	50%	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Tyus Jones #2 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	13.9	3	75%	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Jonathan Isaac #1 · PF · 6'10" 230 · 28	11.8	4	100%	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jett Howard #13 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 22	2.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 27	0.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Noah Penda #93 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Orlando Robinson #7 · C · 6'10" 235 · 25	INACTIVE
Colin Castleton #14 · C · 6'10" 250 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jalen Suggs #4 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Grade 1 MCL Contusion
Moritz Wagner #21 · C · 6'11" 245 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Recovery
Franz Wagner #22 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left High Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	135	68%	36	34	7	6	7	19	4	32	26-34	76%	32-52	62%	15-32	47%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	ORL
Clock	Team	Event	IND	ORL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.30 64.8%

ORL

1.35 67.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

76%

ORL

72%

Midrange

IND

50%

ORL

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

22.5

44%

66%

ORL

22.5

47%

70%

Free Throws

IND

76%

ORL

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	34	77%	17.0 / 22
A. Nesmith	25	69%	12.5 / 18
A. Nembhard	20	53%	10.0 / 19
M. Potter	11	79%	5.5 / 7
J. Huff	11	92%	5.5 / 6
T. McConnell	10	56%	5.0 / 9
B. Sheppard	8	67%	4.0 / 6
J. Walker	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Furphy	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Magic

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Bane	31	86%	15.5 / 18
P. Banchero	28	64%	14.0 / 22
A. Black	27	68%	13.5 / 20
W. Carter	18	64%	9.0 / 14
J. Richardson	12	75%	6.0 / 8
T. da Silva	10	63%	5.0 / 8
J. Isaac	4	100%	2.0 / 2
T. Jones	3	75%	1.5 / 2
G. Bitadze	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Howard	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 17 114.3	IND 125.7 ORL 133.7 +7.9
Pace	10 101.4 14 100.5	IND 105.9 +9.4 ORL 96.5
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 17 14.2	IND 13.6 −1.3 ORL 14.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 26 53.0%	IND 63.8% ORL 64.9% +1.1%
TO %	14 13.6% 12 13.5%	IND 10.3% ORL 6.6% −3.7%
ORB %	29 21.7% 18 25.0%	IND 17.9% +7.4% ORL 10.5%
FTrt	20 25.2 2 31.1	IND 24.1 ORL 40.5 +16.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 12 64.7%	IND 79.2% +6.9% ORL 72.3%
STL %	28 7.2% 16 8.4%	IND 3.0% ORL 6.9% +3.9%
BLK %	26 8.1% 17 8.8%	IND 5.8% ORL 11.3% +5.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 19 56.3%	IND 64.8% ORL 67.5% +2.7%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 24 63.0%	IND 76.0% +4.1% ORL 71.9%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 24 41.5%	IND 50.0% +5.0% ORL 45.0%
3P %	18 35.6% 27 34.3%	IND 44.1% ORL 46.9% +2.8%
FT %	17 77.6% 8 80.1%	IND 76.2% ORL 76.5% +0.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 4 35.7%	IND 28.7% ORL 38.1% +9.4%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 12 25.7%	IND 32.2% ORL 23.8% −8.4%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 24 38.6%	IND 39.1% +1.0% ORL 38.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	IND	ORL
Possessions	101	101
Possession Minutes	22.9	25.1
Points	127	135
Rebounds	41	36
Assists	38	34
Steals	3	7
Blocks	3	6
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	7 (0)
Fouls	26	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (1)	4 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (2)	32 (2)
Field Goals	48-87	47-84
At-the-Rim FG	19-25	23-32
Midrange FG	14-28	9-20
2-Point FG	33-53	32-52
3-Point FG	15-34	15-32
Free Throws	16-21	26-34
Fast Break Pts	12	8
2nd Chance Pts	7	8
Points in Paint	50	60
Pts off Turnovers	7	18
Bench Points	35	21
Biggest Lead	12	13

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg