Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 4, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	11	Bucks	69%	117	115	117.3	98	92.2
	30	Kings	31%	111	98	100.0	98	104.6

Prediction updated: Jan 5, 2026 02:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MIL

+15

-13

100

SAC

+10

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIL

1.15 57.5%

SAC

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

11 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · SG · 6'5" 203 · 26	39.7	25	69%	4	10	2	0	2	1	0	4	8-8	100%	7-13	54%	1-2	50%
Ryan Rollins #13 · PG · 6'3" 180 · 24	33.9	12	50%	6	3	1	0	2	5	1	5	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	2-5	40%
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	31.9	15	54%	5	0	0	2	3	4	2	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-9	33%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	31.6	37	84%	11	1	0	0	3	2	3	8	11-13	85%	13-17	76%	0-0	-
AJ Green #20 · SF · 6'4" 190 · 26	31.6	1	8%	5	1	1	0	1	3	2	3	1-1	100%	0-0	-	0-6	0%

Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	22.3	13	81%	1	3	0	0	0	2	0	1	1-1	100%	0-0	-	4-8	50%
Kyle Kuzma #18 · PF · 6'8" 221 · 30	17.7	3	30%	4	4	0	0	1	0	1	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	16.1	9	41%	11	0	0	0	1	4	2	9	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	0-3	0%
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 31	15.2	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Amir Coffey #17 · SG · 6'7" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Anthony #50 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Mark Sears #19 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	57%	48	23	4	2	13	21	12	36	27-30	90%	29-50	58%	10-37	27%

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11 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · SG · 6'5" 203 · 26	39.7	25	69%	4	10	2	0	2	1	0	4	8-8	100%	7-13	54%	1-2	50%
Ryan Rollins #13 · PG · 6'3" 180 · 24	33.9	12	50%	6	3	1	0	2	5	1	5	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	2-5	40%
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	31.9	15	54%	5	0	0	2	3	4	2	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-9	33%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	31.6	37	84%	11	1	0	0	3	2	3	8	11-13	85%	13-17	76%	0-0	-
AJ Green #20 · SF · 6'4" 190 · 26	31.6	1	8%	5	1	1	0	1	3	2	3	1-1	100%	0-0	-	0-6	0%

Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	22.3	13	81%	1	3	0	0	0	2	0	1	1-1	100%	0-0	-	4-8	50%
Kyle Kuzma #18 · PF · 6'8" 221 · 30	17.7	3	30%	4	4	0	0	1	0	1	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	16.1	9	41%	11	0	0	0	1	4	2	9	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	0-3	0%
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 31	15.2	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Amir Coffey #17 · SG · 6'7" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Anthony #50 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Mark Sears #19 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	57%	48	23	4	2	13	21	12	36	27-30	90%	29-50	58%	10-37	27%

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30 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Russell Westbrook #18 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 37	37.9	21	48%	6	3	4	3	3	5	1	5	10-12	83%	4-8	50%	1-8	13%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 36	28.7	11	39%	4	3	1	0	2	3	0	4	3-7	43%	4-10	40%	0-1	0%
Keegan Murray #13 · SF · 6'8" 225 · 25	26.7	12	46%	3	0	0	2	2	2	0	3	0-0	-	6-10	60%	0-3	0%
Maxime Raynaud #42 · C · 7'1" 250 · 23	24.1	6	60%	8	1	0	0	1	2	2	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Precious Achiuwa #9 · PF · 6'8" 243 · 26	15.4	4	67%	3	0	2	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-

Zach LaVine #8 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 31	35.5	20	67%	3	4	0	0	0	1	0	3	6-6	100%	4-8	50%	2-4	50%
Dennis Schröder #17 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 32	26.1	13	59%	3	5	2	0	1	1	1	2	5-5	100%	1-4	25%	2-5	40%
Drew Eubanks #19 · C · 6'10" 245 · 29	20.9	4	40%	4	0	0	2	1	4	1	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Nique Clifford #5 · SG · 6'5" 175 · 24	19.3	7	58%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	5.3	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #20 · C · 6'10" 225 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Daeqwon Plowden #29 · SG · 6'4" 216 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Stevens #24 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dylan Cardwell #32 · C · 6'10" 255 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Partial Meniscus Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	51%	38	17	10	7	10	22	6	32	25-32	78%	29-55	53%	5-25	20%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIL	SAC
Clock	Team	Event	MIL	SAC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIL

1.15 57.5%

SAC

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIL

71%

SAC

75%

Midrange

MIL

52%

SAC

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIL

15.0

27%

41%

SAC

7.5

20%

30%

Free Throws

MIL

90%

SAC

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Antetokounmpo	37	84%	18.5 / 22
K. Porter	25	69%	12.5 / 18
M. Turner	15	54%	7.5 / 14
G. Trent	13	81%	6.5 / 8
R. Rollins	12	50%	6.0 / 12
B. Portis	9	41%	4.5 / 11
K. Kuzma	3	30%	1.5 / 5
A. Green	1	8%	0.5 / 6
G. Harris	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Westbrook	21	48%	10.5 / 22
Z. LaVine	20	67%	10.0 / 15
D. Schröder	13	59%	6.5 / 11
K. Murray	12	46%	6.0 / 13
D. DeRozan	11	39%	5.5 / 14
N. Clifford	7	58%	3.5 / 6
M. Raynaud	6	60%	3.0 / 5
P. Achiuwa	4	67%	2.0 / 3
D. Eubanks	4	40%	2.0 / 5
K. Ellis	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	24 112.3 26 110.6	MIL 117.3 +17.3 SAC 100.0
Pace	24 98.1 17 100.0	MIL 92.2 SAC 104.6 +12.4
Avg. Poss. Time	7 14.8 14 14.5	MIL 15.6 SAC 13.8 −1.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	3 56.5% 29 52.5%	MIL 50.6% +5.0% SAC 45.6%
TO %	24 14.7% 15 13.7%	MIL 11.5% SAC 9.6% −1.9%
ORB %	30 21.1% 13 25.9%	MIL 27.3% +13.0% SAC 14.3%
FTrt	29 22.3 19 25.6	MIL 34.5 SAC 40.0 +5.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	17 63.3% 20 61.5%	MIL 59.0% +9.0% SAC 50.0%
STL %	23 7.5% 21 8.0%	MIL 4.1% SAC 10.2% +6.1%
BLK %	25 8.2% 19 8.6%	MIL 3.6% SAC 14.0% +10.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	9 57.5% 29 54.7%	MIL 57.5% +7.0% SAC 50.5%
Rim FG%	4 67.1% 8 65.9%	MIL 70.6% SAC 75.0% +4.4%
Mid FG%	20 42.6% 13 43.8%	MIL 51.5% +7.9% SAC 43.6%
3P %	2 38.7% 29 34.1%	MIL 27.0% +7.0% SAC 20.0%
FT %	30 73.0% 21 77.2%	MIL 90.0% +11.9% SAC 78.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	27 28.2% 28 28.0%	MIL 19.5% SAC 20.0% +0.5%
Mid Att. %	16 26.1% 30 38.1%	MIL 37.9% −10.8% SAC 48.8%
3P Att. %	5 45.7% 30 33.9%	MIL 42.5% +11.3% SAC 31.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.66 and 2.66.

Game Totals	MIL	SAC
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	25.5	22.5
Points	115	98
Rebounds	48	38
Assists	23	17
Steals	4	10
Blocks	2	7
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	10 (0)
Fouls	21	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (3)	6 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (4)	32 (3)
Field Goals	39-87	34-80
At-the-Rim FG	12-17	12-16
Midrange FG	17-33	17-39
2-Point FG	29-50	29-55
3-Point FG	10-37	5-25
Free Throws	27-30	25-32
Fast Break Pts	15	23
2nd Chance Pts	18	8
Points in Paint	48	42
Pts off Turnovers	8	15
Bench Points	25	44
Biggest Lead	26	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg