Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 4, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	22	Grizzlies	47%	116	114	116.3	98	106.3
	16	Lakers	53%	117	120	122.4	98	90.9

Prediction updated: Jan 5, 2026 02:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+21

-8

111

LAL

+14

-10

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.03 51.4%

LAL

1.18 58.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

22 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cam Spencer #24 · PG · 6'3" 205 · 26	34.0	5	23%	2	9	0	0	2	5	0	2	3-3	100%	1-5	20%	0-5	0%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	33.7	14	50%	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	3	0-0	-	4-10	40%	2-4	50%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	28.6	13	65%	10	3	0	0	0	1	6	4	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	1-2	50%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	24.5	23	68%	1	2	0	0	0	5	1	0	4-4	100%	5-5	100%	3-11	27%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	12.6	16	80%	8	1	1	0	1	1	2	6	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	30.7	12	40%	10	7	1	0	1	4	4	6	4-6	67%	4-9	44%	0-4	0%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	24.8	7	44%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-5	20%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	21.9	11	50%	6	1	0	1	0	4	1	5	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	1-5	20%
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	16.1	7	58%	3	5	1	0	1	0	1	2	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	13.1	6	50%	2	0	2	0	1	5	1	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Patellar; Tendinitis
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; UCL Surgery Recovery
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	51%	47	29	6	1	8	31	16	31	20-22	91%	32-59	54%	10-41	24%

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22 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cam Spencer #24 · PG · 6'3" 205 · 26	34.0	5	23%	2	9	0	0	2	5	0	2	3-3	100%	1-5	20%	0-5	0%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	33.7	14	50%	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	3	0-0	-	4-10	40%	2-4	50%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	28.6	13	65%	10	3	0	0	0	1	6	4	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	1-2	50%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	24.5	23	68%	1	2	0	0	0	5	1	0	4-4	100%	5-5	100%	3-11	27%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	12.6	16	80%	8	1	1	0	1	1	2	6	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	30.7	12	40%	10	7	1	0	1	4	4	6	4-6	67%	4-9	44%	0-4	0%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	24.8	7	44%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-5	20%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	21.9	11	50%	6	1	0	1	0	4	1	5	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	1-5	20%
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	16.1	7	58%	3	5	1	0	1	0	1	2	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	13.1	6	50%	2	0	2	0	1	5	1	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Patellar; Tendinitis
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; UCL Surgery Recovery
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	51%	47	29	6	1	8	31	16	31	20-22	91%	32-59	54%	10-41	24%

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16 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	38.9	36	69%	9	8	0	1	3	2	2	7	12-13	92%	6-10	60%	4-10	40%
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 41	37.3	26	72%	7	10	1	0	1	2	0	7	8-10	80%	6-7	86%	2-7	29%
Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	34.5	26	72%	5	4	1	0	0	2	2	3	4-4	100%	5-6	83%	4-10	40%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 27	33.6	15	68%	8	1	1	3	1	2	1	7	3-6	50%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Marcus Smart #36 · SG · 6'3" 220 · 32	31.1	6	43%	1	4	0	1	1	2	0	1	4-4	100%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%

Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 27	21.9	7	44%	7	3	0	1	2	1	1	6	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	0-4	0%
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	15.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	14.4	1	25%	6	0	0	0	0	3	2	4	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	12.9	3	30%	2	0	1	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Gabe Vincent #7 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Lumbar Back; Strain
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right MCL; Sprain
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	59%	45	30	4	6	10	18	8	37	33-41	80%	27-39	69%	11-41	27%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	LAL
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	LAL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.03 51.4%

LAL

1.18 58.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

55%

LAL

81%

Midrange

MEM

52%

LAL

56%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

15.0

24%

37%

LAL

16.5

27%

40%

Free Throws

MEM

91%

LAL

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Wells	23	68%	11.5 / 17
C. Coward	16	80%	8.0 / 10
J. Jackson	14	50%	7.0 / 14
J. Landale	13	65%	6.5 / 10
S. Aldama	12	40%	6.0 / 15
G. Jackson	11	50%	5.5 / 11
K. Caldwell-Pope	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. Small	7	58%	3.5 / 6
C. Koloko	6	50%	3.0 / 6
C. Spencer	5	23%	2.5 / 11

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Lakers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	36	69%	18.0 / 26
L. James	26	72%	13.0 / 18
J. LaRavia	26	72%	13.0 / 18
D. Ayton	15	68%	7.5 / 11
J. Vanderbilt	7	44%	3.5 / 8
M. Smart	6	43%	3.0 / 7
D. Knecht	3	30%	1.5 / 5
J. Hayes	1	25%	0.5 / 2
N. Smith	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	23 112.4 10 117.1	MEM 116.3 LAL 122.4 +6.1
Pace	7 101.8 21 99.2	MEM 106.3 +15.4 LAL 90.9
Avg. Poss. Time	26 13.8 6 14.8	MEM 13.6 −2.3 LAL 15.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	24 53.3% 2 57.3%	MEM 47.0% LAL 54.4% +7.4%
TO %	22 14.3% 19 13.9%	MEM 7.6% −2.5% LAL 10.1%
ORB %	19 24.7% 22 23.9%	MEM 30.2% +9.7% LAL 20.5%
FTrt	21 25.1 1 32.0	MEM 22.0 LAL 51.3 +29.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	6 67.4% 19 61.5%	MEM 69.0% LAL 78.9% +9.9%
STL %	11 8.7% 12 8.6%	MEM 6.1% +2.0% LAL 4.1%
BLK %	14 9.1% 23 8.3%	MEM 2.6% LAL 10.2% +7.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	22 55.8% 2 59.4%	MEM 51.4% LAL 58.8% +7.4%
Rim FG%	26 62.8% 1 72.0%	MEM 55.3% LAL 81.0% +25.7%
Mid FG%	11 44.2% 4 46.8%	MEM 52.4% LAL 55.6% +3.2%
3P %	22 35.3% 14 35.9%	MEM 24.4% LAL 26.8% +2.4%
FT %	9 79.3% 26 76.3%	MEM 90.9% +10.4% LAL 80.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	26 28.6% 21 30.7%	MEM 38.0% +11.8% LAL 26.3%
Mid Att. %	19 27.8% 26 30.0%	MEM 21.0% −1.5% LAL 22.5%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 22 39.4%	MEM 41.0% LAL 51.2% +10.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.16 and 3.16.

Game Totals	MEM	LAL
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	22.1	25.9
Points	114	120
Rebounds	47	45
Assists	29	30
Steals	6	4
Blocks	1	6
Turnovers (Team)	8 (1)	10 (1)
Fouls	31	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (5)	8 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (1)	37 (2)
Field Goals	42-100	38-80
At-the-Rim FG	21-38	17-21
Midrange FG	11-21	10-18
2-Point FG	32-59	27-39
3-Point FG	10-41	11-41
Free Throws	20-22	33-41
Fast Break Pts	13	13
2nd Chance Pts	18	15
Points in Paint	58	46
Pts off Turnovers	17	6
Bench Points	43	11
Biggest Lead	16	9

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg