Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Spurs	65%	120	105	100.0	105	111.2
	22	Grizzlies	35%	115	106	101.0	105	99.5

Prediction updated: Jan 7, 2026 12:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+20

-14

111

MEM

+24

-20

109

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

0.95 47.3%

MEM

0.98 49.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	31.8	23	88%	8	2	3	0	2	2	0	8	4-5	80%	2-3	67%	5-8	63%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	29.9	9	25%	5	8	0	1	2	1	1	4	0-0	-	3-10	30%	1-8	13%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	28.4	15	47%	8	4	2	0	5	6	2	6	3-4	75%	3-10	30%	2-4	50%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	27.0	4	40%	7	3	0	1	0	1	5	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	20.2	2	17%	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	27.7	13	50%	5	0	1	0	0	3	1	4	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	2-8	25%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	21.0	30	65%	5	3	1	1	2	2	0	5	7-8	88%	7-14	50%	3-6	50%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	18.0	4	29%	2	3	0	1	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	14.3	2	25%	6	1	0	0	1	2	3	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	9.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.6	0	0%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	3.8	3	150%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	47%	50	26	9	4	14	18	13	37	15-18	83%	24-56	43%	14-46	30%

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5 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	31.8	23	88%	8	2	3	0	2	2	0	8	4-5	80%	2-3	67%	5-8	63%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	29.9	9	25%	5	8	0	1	2	1	1	4	0-0	-	3-10	30%	1-8	13%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	28.4	15	47%	8	4	2	0	5	6	2	6	3-4	75%	3-10	30%	2-4	50%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	27.0	4	40%	7	3	0	1	0	1	5	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	20.2	2	17%	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	27.7	13	50%	5	0	1	0	0	3	1	4	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	2-8	25%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	21.0	30	65%	5	3	1	1	2	2	0	5	7-8	88%	7-14	50%	3-6	50%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	18.0	4	29%	2	3	0	1	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	14.3	2	25%	6	1	0	0	1	2	3	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	9.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.6	0	0%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	3.8	3	150%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	47%	50	26	9	4	14	18	13	37	15-18	83%	24-56	43%	14-46	30%

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22 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	35.9	21	62%	9	2	2	3	6	3	0	9	2-2	100%	2-9	22%	5-7	71%
Cam Spencer #24 · PG · 6'3" 205 · 26	29.9	21	70%	8	8	1	0	0	1	3	5	2-3	67%	5-7	71%	3-8	38%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SG · 6'7" 206 · 22	28.3	8	31%	3	2	1	0	2	0	2	1	2-4	50%	0-4	0%	2-7	29%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	23.7	19	59%	9	2	0	1	1	4	6	3	0-2	0%	5-8	63%	3-7	43%
GG Jackson #45 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 21	22.5	2	17%	7	1	0	0	1	2	0	7	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	23.9	10	45%	9	2	0	2	4	1	3	6	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	1-6	17%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	22.1	15	107%	6	5	0	0	1	1	0	6	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	4-6	67%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	19.6	6	38%	3	3	1	0	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-3	0%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	17.7	4	50%	6	1	1	3	1	1	3	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	16.4	0	0%	1	2	1	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; UCL Surgery Recovery
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	49%	61	28	7	9	20	15	17	44	10-15	67%	21-49	43%	18-49	37%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MEM
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MEM

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

0.95 47.3%

MEM

0.98 49.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

40%

MEM

53%

Midrange

SAS

45%

MEM

38%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

21.0

30%

46%

MEM

27.0

37%

55%

Free Throws

SAS

83%

MEM

67%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	30	65%	15.0 / 23
J. Champagnie	23	88%	11.5 / 13
S. Castle	15	47%	7.5 / 16
K. Johnson	13	50%	6.5 / 13
D. Fox	9	25%	4.5 / 18
L. Kornet	4	40%	2.0 / 5
D. Harper	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. McLaughlin	3	150%	1.5 / 1
H. Barnes	2	17%	1.0 / 6
J. Sochan	2	25%	1.0 / 4
C. Bryant	0	-	0.0 / 2
K. Olynyk	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jackson	21	62%	10.5 / 17
C. Spencer	21	70%	10.5 / 15
J. Landale	19	59%	9.5 / 16
V. Williams	15	107%	7.5 / 7
S. Aldama	10	45%	5.0 / 11
J. Wells	8	31%	4.0 / 13
K. Caldwell-Pope	6	38%	3.0 / 8
C. Koloko	4	50%	2.0 / 4
G. Jackson	2	17%	1.0 / 6
J. Small	0	-	0.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 23 112.4	SAS 100.0 MEM 101.0 +1.0
Pace	13 100.5 7 101.8	SAS 111.2 +11.7 MEM 99.5
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 26 13.8	SAS 12.9 −1.5 MEM 14.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 24 53.3%	SAS 44.1% MEM 49.0% +4.9%
TO %	4 12.5% 22 14.3%	SAS 11.3% −6.7% MEM 18.0%
ORB %	10 26.2% 19 24.7%	SAS 22.8% MEM 31.5% +8.7%
FTrt	12 27.3 21 25.1	SAS 17.6 +2.3 MEM 15.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 6 67.4%	SAS 68.4% MEM 71.8% +3.4%
STL %	24 7.5% 11 8.7%	SAS 8.6% +1.9% MEM 6.7%
BLK %	10 10.0% 14 9.1%	SAS 8.2% MEM 16.1% +7.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 22 55.8%	SAS 47.3% MEM 49.1% +1.8%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 26 62.8%	SAS 40.0% MEM 52.9% +12.9%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 11 44.2%	SAS 45.2% +7.7% MEM 37.5%
3P %	15 35.9% 22 35.3%	SAS 30.4% MEM 36.7% +6.3%
FT %	12 78.7% 9 79.3%	SAS 83.3% +16.6% MEM 66.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 26 28.6%	SAS 24.5% +7.2% MEM 17.3%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 19 27.8%	SAS 30.4% −2.3% MEM 32.7%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 10 43.6%	SAS 45.1% MEM 50.0% +4.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MEM
Possessions	105	105
Possession Minutes	22.7	25.3
Points	105	106
Rebounds	50	61
Assists	26	28
Steals	9	7
Blocks	4	9
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	20 (3)
Fouls	18	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (7)	17 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (2)	44 (2)
Field Goals	38-102	39-98
At-the-Rim FG	10-25	9-17
Midrange FG	14-31	12-32
2-Point FG	24-56	21-49
3-Point FG	14-46	18-49
Free Throws	15-18	10-15
Fast Break Pts	26	13
2nd Chance Pts	13	22
Points in Paint	38	34
Pts off Turnovers	18	12
Bench Points	52	35
Biggest Lead	11	7

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg