Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, January 8, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	24	Pacers	41%	114	114	116.3	98	92.7
	17	Hornets	59%	117	112	113.1	99	104.8

Prediction updated: Jan 8, 2026 11:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+13

-19

CHA

+15

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.21 60.6%

CHA

1.14 57.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

24 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	35.5	30	63%	14	3	0	0	6	2	4	10	3-3	100%	9-19	47%	3-4	75%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	35.2	16	62%	5	2	1	1	2	5	1	4	3-3	100%	2-5	40%	3-7	43%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	26.3	7	70%	6	2	1	1	1	3	2	4	4-4	100%	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	24.2	10	125%	2	0	0	3	1	5	1	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-2	100%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	17.9	4	29%	0	5	1	1	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-2	0%

T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	27.8	23	64%	4	8	4	0	4	2	2	2	2-2	100%	9-14	64%	1-3	33%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	26.5	7	70%	4	2	0	0	0	3	0	4	2-3	67%	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	15.0	7	117%	3	0	1	0	2	1	0	3	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	12.6	2	17%	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	0-2	0%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	8.4	5	63%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	8.3	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3-3	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	2.3	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 26	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Soreness
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Torn
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Sprain
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Concussion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	61%	41	25	9	6	19	27	10	31	20-21	95%	29-55	53%	12-27	44%

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24 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	35.5	30	63%	14	3	0	0	6	2	4	10	3-3	100%	9-19	47%	3-4	75%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	35.2	16	62%	5	2	1	1	2	5	1	4	3-3	100%	2-5	40%	3-7	43%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	26.3	7	70%	6	2	1	1	1	3	2	4	4-4	100%	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	24.2	10	125%	2	0	0	3	1	5	1	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-2	100%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	17.9	4	29%	0	5	1	1	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-2	0%

T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	27.8	23	64%	4	8	4	0	4	2	2	2	2-2	100%	9-14	64%	1-3	33%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	26.5	7	70%	4	2	0	0	0	3	0	4	2-3	67%	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	15.0	7	117%	3	0	1	0	2	1	0	3	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	12.6	2	17%	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	0-2	0%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	8.4	5	63%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	8.3	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3-3	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	2.3	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 26	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Soreness
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Torn
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Sprain
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Concussion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	61%	41	25	9	6	19	27	10	31	20-21	95%	29-55	53%	12-27	44%

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17 Charlotte Hornets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Miles Bridges #0 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 28	36.1	19	63%	6	4	1	0	2	1	2	4	2-4	50%	4-7	57%	3-6	50%
Moussa Diabaté #14 · C · 6'10" 210 · 24	35.7	10	56%	5	1	0	1	1	4	2	3	6-8	75%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Kon Knueppel #7 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 20	29.3	18	64%	8	3	1	0	0	4	2	6	6-6	100%	3-6	50%	2-6	33%
Brandon Miller #24 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 23	19.1	6	33%	4	3	0	2	3	2	0	4	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Collin Sexton #8 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 27	17.9	11	61%	0	5	2	0	3	4	0	0	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-3	33%

LaMelo Ball #1 · PG · 6'7" 180 · 24	26.8	33	69%	3	8	3	0	3	3	0	3	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	7-15	47%
Sion James #4 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 23	22.2	4	50%	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Josh Green #10 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 25	17.5	3	50%	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Tidjane Salaün #31 · PF · 6'10" 207 · 20	13.3	4	40%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Liam McNeeley #33 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 20	11.3	2	50%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
PJ Hall #16 · C · 6'8" 245 · 24	10.8	2	50%	4	1	0	0	2	1	2	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Tre Mann #23 · PG · 6'4" 178 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Pat Connaughton #21 · SG · 6'5" 209 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Antonio Reeves #12 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	INACTIVE
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Grant Williams #2 · PF · 6'7" 236 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Ryan Kalkbrenner #11 · C · 7'1" 256 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Mason Plumlee #22 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	57%	35	29	8	3	16	22	8	27	18-24	75%	23-42	55%	16-44	36%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	CHA
Clock	Team	Event	IND	CHA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.21 60.6%

CHA

1.14 57.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

67%

CHA

57%

Midrange

IND

44%

CHA

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

18.0

44%

67%

CHA

24.0

36%

55%

Free Throws

IND

95%

CHA

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	30	63%	15.0 / 24
T. McConnell	23	64%	11.5 / 18
A. Nesmith	16	62%	8.0 / 13
J. Huff	10	125%	5.0 / 4
J. Furphy	7	70%	3.5 / 5
B. Sheppard	7	70%	3.5 / 5
T. Bradley	7	117%	3.5 / 3
M. Potter	5	63%	2.5 / 4
Q. Jackson	4	29%	2.0 / 7
E. Thompson	3	150%	1.5 / 1
J. Walker	2	17%	1.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hornets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Ball	33	69%	16.5 / 24
M. Bridges	19	63%	9.5 / 15
K. Knueppel	18	64%	9.0 / 14
C. Sexton	11	61%	5.5 / 9
M. Diabaté	10	56%	5.0 / 9
B. Miller	6	33%	3.0 / 9
S. James	4	50%	2.0 / 4
T. Salaün	4	40%	2.0 / 5
J. Green	3	50%	1.5 / 3
L. McNeeley	2	50%	1.0 / 2
P. Hall	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 5 118.6	IND 116.3 +3.2 CHA 113.1
Pace	10 101.4 27 97.5	IND 92.7 CHA 104.8 +12.1
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 3 15.2	IND 15.5 CHA 13.7 −1.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 12 55.2%	IND 57.3% +2.6% CHA 54.7%
TO %	14 13.6% 27 14.8%	IND 18.0% CHA 15.0% −3.0%
ORB %	29 21.7% 4 30.5%	IND 27.0% +6.5% CHA 20.5%
FTrt	20 25.2 23 24.4	IND 25.6 CHA 27.9 +2.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 14 64.3%	IND 61.0% CHA 74.4% +13.4%
STL %	28 7.2% 29 7.2%	IND 9.2% +1.1% CHA 8.1%
BLK %	26 8.1% 20 8.6%	IND 14.3% +8.8% CHA 5.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 10 57.3%	IND 60.6% +3.5% CHA 57.1%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 23 63.1%	IND 66.7% +9.6% CHA 57.1%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 25 41.4%	IND 44.1% CHA 50.0% +5.9%
3P %	18 35.6% 3 37.8%	IND 44.4% +8.0% CHA 36.4%
FT %	17 77.6% 2 81.8%	IND 95.2% +20.2% CHA 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 25 29.3%	IND 25.6% CHA 32.6% +6.9%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 6 22.0%	IND 41.5% CHA 16.3% −25.2%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 2 48.7%	IND 32.9% CHA 51.2% +18.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	IND	CHA
Possessions	98	99
Possession Minutes	25.4	22.7
Points	114	112
Rebounds	41	35
Assists	25	29
Steals	9	8
Blocks	6	3
Turnovers (Team)	19 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls	27	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (3)	8 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (3)	27 (1)
Field Goals	41-82	39-86
At-the-Rim FG	14-21	16-28
Midrange FG	15-34	7-14
2-Point FG	29-55	23-42
3-Point FG	12-27	16-44
Free Throws	20-21	18-24
Fast Break Pts	6	14
2nd Chance Pts	9	22
Points in Paint	52	42
Pts off Turnovers	22	23
Bench Points	47	48
Biggest Lead	12	4

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg