Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, January 9, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	11	Thunder	62%	114	117	119.4	98	104.1
	19	Grizzlies	38%	110	116	118.4	98	92.5

Prediction updated: Jan 10, 2026 12:37 AM

Scoring Opportunities

OKC

+11

-6

103

MEM

+21

-17

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.14 56.8%

MEM

1.15 57.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

11 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ajay Mitchell #25 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 24	38.0	23	57%	3	6	0	1	2	3	0	3	3-5	60%	7-12	58%	2-6	33%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	36.3	26	62%	5	10	1	1	2	4	0	5	8-10	80%	9-15	60%	0-3	0%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 27	35.2	13	50%	6	4	3	0	0	2	3	3	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	1-7	14%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SF · 6'5" 190 · 27	31.9	16	62%	7	1	1	1	1	2	2	5	1-1	100%	6-10	60%	1-3	33%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	15.8	5	50%	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%

Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	28.9	21	75%	8	0	2	0	0	2	3	5	2-3	67%	5-6	83%	3-7	43%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	23.9	7	70%	3	2	1	2	1	3	1	2	3-3	100%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	15.6	3	19%	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	1	3-4	75%	0-1	0%	0-5	0%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	7.3	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	7.1	3	150%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Shins; Soreness
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Soreness
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	57%	36	24	9	8	6	22	10	26	22-28	79%	34-54	63%	9-37	24%

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11 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ajay Mitchell #25 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 24	38.0	23	57%	3	6	0	1	2	3	0	3	3-5	60%	7-12	58%	2-6	33%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	36.3	26	62%	5	10	1	1	2	4	0	5	8-10	80%	9-15	60%	0-3	0%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 27	35.2	13	50%	6	4	3	0	0	2	3	3	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	1-7	14%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SF · 6'5" 190 · 27	31.9	16	62%	7	1	1	1	1	2	2	5	1-1	100%	6-10	60%	1-3	33%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	15.8	5	50%	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%

Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	28.9	21	75%	8	0	2	0	0	2	3	5	2-3	67%	5-6	83%	3-7	43%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	23.9	7	70%	3	2	1	2	1	3	1	2	3-3	100%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	15.6	3	19%	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	1	3-4	75%	0-1	0%	0-5	0%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	7.3	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	7.1	3	150%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Shins; Soreness
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Soreness
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	57%	36	24	9	8	6	22	10	26	22-28	79%	34-54	63%	9-37	24%

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19 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	32.4	23	77%	7	1	1	1	2	4	1	6	3-3	100%	7-9	78%	2-5	40%
Cam Spencer #24 · PG · 6'3" 205 · 26	30.1	7	39%	4	11	1	0	0	4	0	4	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	1-4	25%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	28.3	13	81%	10	2	0	0	0	1	6	4	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	1-3	33%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	27.9	10	33%	4	3	0	0	4	3	1	3	3-4	75%	2-7	29%	1-6	17%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	25.5	13	54%	9	4	0	0	5	4	0	9	6-7	86%	2-6	33%	1-3	33%

Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	28.8	15	75%	7	7	0	0	1	1	1	6	1-2	50%	4-5	80%	2-4	50%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	22.5	13	72%	3	5	0	1	1	2	1	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	3-6	50%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	21.0	18	69%	2	0	1	0	2	4	1	1	1-2	50%	4-4	100%	3-8	38%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	13.7	2	25%	5	1	0	2	2	3	3	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	9.9	2	25%	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; UCL Surgery Recovery
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	57%	52	35	4	4	17	26	15	37	20-24	83%	27-47	57%	14-41	34%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	MEM
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	MEM

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.14 56.8%

MEM

1.15 57.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

OKC

67%

MEM

70%

Midrange

OKC

58%

MEM

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

OKC

13.5

24%

36%

MEM

21.0

34%

51%

Free Throws

OKC

79%

MEM

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Williams	26	62%	13.0 / 21
A. Mitchell	23	57%	11.5 / 20
K. Williams	21	75%	10.5 / 14
A. Wiggins	16	62%	8.0 / 13
L. Dort	13	50%	6.5 / 13
A. Caruso	7	70%	3.5 / 5
B. Carlson	5	50%	2.5 / 5
I. Joe	3	19%	1.5 / 8
O. Dieng	3	150%	1.5 / 1
B. Barnhizer	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jackson	23	77%	11.5 / 15
G. Jackson	18	69%	9.0 / 13
S. Aldama	15	75%	7.5 / 10
J. Landale	13	81%	6.5 / 8
C. Coward	13	54%	6.5 / 12
V. Williams	13	72%	6.5 / 9
J. Wells	10	33%	5.0 / 15
C. Spencer	7	39%	3.5 / 9
C. Koloko	2	25%	1.0 / 4
K. Caldwell-Pope	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 117.6 23 112.4	OKC 119.4 +1.0 MEM 118.4
Pace	15 100.3 7 101.8	OKC 104.1 +11.7 MEM 92.5
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.1 26 13.8	OKC 13.8 −1.7 MEM 15.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.1% 24 53.3%	OKC 52.2% MEM 54.5% +2.3%
TO %	1 11.8% 22 14.3%	OKC 5.5% −9.2% MEM 14.7%
ORB %	28 22.3% 19 24.7%	OKC 21.3% MEM 36.6% +15.3%
FTrt	17 26.1 21 25.1	OKC 30.8 +3.5 MEM 27.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	25 59.8% 6 67.4%	OKC 55.8% MEM 85.4% +29.6%
STL %	4 9.6% 11 8.7%	OKC 9.2% +5.1% MEM 4.1%
BLK %	2 11.0% 14 9.1%	OKC 17.0% +9.6% MEM 7.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 58.5% 22 55.8%	OKC 56.8% MEM 57.4% +0.6%
Rim FG%	11 65.2% 26 62.8%	OKC 66.7% MEM 69.6% +2.9%
Mid FG%	1 47.6% 11 44.2%	OKC 58.3% +12.5% MEM 45.8%
3P %	9 36.5% 22 35.3%	OKC 24.3% MEM 34.1% +9.8%
FT %	3 81.7% 9 79.3%	OKC 78.6% MEM 83.3% +4.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	16 31.3% 26 28.6%	OKC 33.0% +6.8% MEM 26.1%
Mid Att. %	15 26.1% 19 27.8%	OKC 26.4% −0.9% MEM 27.3%
3P Att. %	13 42.6% 10 43.6%	OKC 40.7% MEM 46.6% +5.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	OKC	MEM
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	22.6	25.4
Points	117	116
Rebounds	36	52
Assists	24	35
Steals	9	4
Blocks	8	4
Turnovers (Team)	6 (0)	17 (0)
Fouls	22	26
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (1)	15 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (4)	37 (5)
Field Goals	43-91	41-88
At-the-Rim FG	20-30	16-23
Midrange FG	14-24	11-24
2-Point FG	34-54	27-47
3-Point FG	9-37	14-41
Free Throws	22-28	20-24
Fast Break Pts	13	7
2nd Chance Pts	13	17
Points in Paint	62	50
Pts off Turnovers	25	5
Bench Points	34	50
Biggest Lead	5	21

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg