Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, January 9, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	15	Hawks	59%	115	110	114.6	96	97.5
	25	Nuggets	41%	112	87	91.6	95	93.5

Prediction updated: Jan 10, 2026 01:33 AM

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

-6

DEN

-19

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.15 57.3%

DEN

1.06 53.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

15 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	35.6	17	61%	11	10	4	0	1	0	1	10	1-2	50%	8-12	67%	0-2	0%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	34.7	15	54%	5	5	2	1	2	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-7	43%	3-7	43%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	34.7	29	81%	9	6	1	1	2	1	0	9	0-1	0%	7-12	58%	5-6	83%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	33.4	22	52%	8	3	2	0	1	1	0	8	1-1	100%	6-10	60%	3-11	27%
Vít Krejčí #27 · SF · 6'8" 195 · 26	27.3	0	0%	0	1	2	2	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-7	0%

Luke Kennard #3 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	27.5	8	67%	1	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	18.6	0	0%	2	0	0	1	0	5	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	17.3	10	83%	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	10.8	9	90%	4	0	0	1	0	3	1	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-2	50%
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendinitis
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Inflammation
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	NWT - Not With Team
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
RayJ Dennis #4 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
CJ McCollum #98 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	Inactive - Not With Team
Corey Kispert #99 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	57%	40	31	14	6	6	17	4	36	2-4	50%	30-51	59%	16-43	37%

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15 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	35.6	17	61%	11	10	4	0	1	0	1	10	1-2	50%	8-12	67%	0-2	0%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	34.7	15	54%	5	5	2	1	2	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-7	43%	3-7	43%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	34.7	29	81%	9	6	1	1	2	1	0	9	0-1	0%	7-12	58%	5-6	83%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	33.4	22	52%	8	3	2	0	1	1	0	8	1-1	100%	6-10	60%	3-11	27%
Vít Krejčí #27 · SF · 6'8" 195 · 26	27.3	0	0%	0	1	2	2	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-7	0%

Luke Kennard #3 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	27.5	8	67%	1	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	18.6	0	0%	2	0	0	1	0	5	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	17.3	10	83%	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	10.8	9	90%	4	0	0	1	0	3	1	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-2	50%
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendinitis
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Inflammation
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	NWT - Not With Team
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
RayJ Dennis #4 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
CJ McCollum #98 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	Inactive - Not With Team
Corey Kispert #99 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	57%	40	31	14	6	6	17	4	36	2-4	50%	30-51	59%	16-43	37%

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25 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	34.0	25	57%	11	4	3	1	5	3	2	9	5-7	71%	7-15	47%	2-4	50%
Jalen Pickett #24 · PG · 6'2" 202 · 26	33.3	7	58%	6	6	1	0	1	1	0	6	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-4	25%
Hunter Tyson #5 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	27.3	10	56%	4	4	1	0	2	2	0	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	24.8	0	0%	4	0	0	1	2	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-3	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · C · 6'9" 225 · 23	15.2	6	100%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	26.1	10	63%	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	24.5	14	54%	9	5	0	0	1	1	0	9	3-4	75%	4-6	67%	1-5	20%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	23.7	3	38%	3	2	1	0	1	0	2	1	3-4	75%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	20.7	12	100%	3	0	0	0	3	1	0	3	3-3	100%	3-3	100%	1-2	50%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	10.4	0	0%	1	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain; Illness
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Inflammation; Illness
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Bone Bruise
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	87	53%	44	22	6	2	19	11	4	40	16-20	80%	19-40	48%	11-32	34%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.15 57.3%

DEN

1.06 53.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

74%

DEN

56%

Midrange

ATL

46%

DEN

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

24.0

37%

56%

DEN

16.5

34%

52%

Free Throws

ATL

50%

DEN

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Johnson	29	81%	14.5 / 18
N. Alexander-Walker	22	52%	11.0 / 21
D. Daniels	17	61%	8.5 / 14
O. Okongwu	15	54%	7.5 / 14
K. Wallace	10	83%	5.0 / 6
A. Newell	9	90%	4.5 / 5
L. Kennard	8	67%	4.0 / 6
V. Krejčí	0	-	0.0 / 8
M. Gueye	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Watson	25	57%	12.5 / 22
A. Gordon	14	54%	7.0 / 13
Z. Nnaji	12	100%	6.0 / 6
H. Tyson	10	56%	5.0 / 9
T. Hardaway	10	63%	5.0 / 8
J. Pickett	7	58%	3.5 / 6
D. Holmes	6	100%	3.0 / 3
B. Brown	3	38%	1.5 / 4
C. Braun	0	-	0.0 / 5
J. Strawther	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	14 115.1 1 121.3	ATL 114.6 +23.0 DEN 91.6
Pace	4 102.5 19 99.4	ATL 97.5 +4.0 DEN 93.5
Avg. Poss. Time	29 13.5 9 14.7	ATL 14.8 −0.6 DEN 15.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	10 55.4% 1 57.7%	ATL 57.4% +8.1% DEN 49.3%
TO %	8 13.0% 3 12.1%	ATL 5.9% −13.1% DEN 19.0%
ORB %	20 24.3% 24 23.6%	ATL 9.1% DEN 10.0% +0.9%
FTrt	27 23.4 4 29.4	ATL 4.3 DEN 27.8 +23.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 69.1% 9 66.5%	ATL 67.4% DEN 73.3% +5.9%
STL %	6 9.1% 30 6.8%	ATL 14.6% +8.3% DEN 6.3%
BLK %	18 8.8% 29 7.6%	ATL 15.0% +11.1% DEN 3.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	14 56.9% 1 60.1%	ATL 57.3% +4.3% DEN 53.0%
Rim FG%	21 63.3% 12 65.1%	ATL 73.9% +18.3% DEN 55.6%
Mid FG%	6 44.6% 2 47.0%	ATL 46.4% +5.5% DEN 40.9%
3P %	5 37.1% 1 39.6%	ATL 37.2% +2.8% DEN 34.4%
FT %	20 77.4% 5 80.8%	ATL 50.0% DEN 80.0% +30.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	13 32.1% 19 31.1%	ATL 24.5% DEN 25.0% +0.5%
Mid Att. %	9 25.0% 21 28.1%	ATL 29.8% −0.8% DEN 30.6%
3P Att. %	11 42.9% 17 40.8%	ATL 45.7% +1.3% DEN 44.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	ATL	DEN
Possessions	96	95
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	110	87
Rebounds	40	44
Assists	31	22
Steals	14	6
Blocks	6	2
Turnovers (Team)	6 (0)	19 (0)
Fouls	17	11
Off. Rebounds (Team)	4 (3)	4 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (2)	40 (4)
Field Goals	46-94	30-72
At-the-Rim FG	17-23	10-18
Midrange FG	13-28	9-22
2-Point FG	30-51	19-40
3-Point FG	16-43	11-32
Free Throws	2-4	16-20
Fast Break Pts	16	9
2nd Chance Pts	4	2
Points in Paint	56	30
Pts off Turnovers	18	5
Bench Points	27	39
Biggest Lead	26	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg