Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 10, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	10	Heat	64%	117	99	87.6	113	118.9
	22	Pacers	36%	113	123	109.8	112	106.7

Prediction updated: Jan 11, 2026 12:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+14

-19

108

IND

+15

-16

111

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.93 46.3%

IND

1.11 55.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

10 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	32.0	21	50%	7	4	1	1	0	2	1	6	4-4	100%	7-11	64%	1-8	13%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	24.8	13	54%	9	2	0	0	2	1	2	7	3-3	100%	5-10	50%	0-2	0%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	22.0	6	23%	3	1	1	0	4	1	0	3	1-2	50%	1-5	20%	1-7	14%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	19.9	11	69%	6	1	0	1	1	2	3	3	1-1	100%	5-7	71%	0-1	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	19.3	1	25%	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.5	16	53%	7	2	1	0	3	0	1	6	4-6	67%	6-12	50%	0-0	-
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	17.1	2	50%	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	16.8	4	29%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	16.3	4	50%	3	0	0	1	1	2	0	3	4-6	67%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	12.0	2	17%	7	0	1	1	0	4	3	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-4	0%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	11.7	8	133%	1	4	0	1	1	2	0	1	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	8.6	0	0%	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	7.8	5	83%	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	6.1	6	60%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	46%	51	17	6	5	19	18	11	40	23-29	79%	32-62	52%	4-30	13%

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10 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	32.0	21	50%	7	4	1	1	0	2	1	6	4-4	100%	7-11	64%	1-8	13%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	24.8	13	54%	9	2	0	0	2	1	2	7	3-3	100%	5-10	50%	0-2	0%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	22.0	6	23%	3	1	1	0	4	1	0	3	1-2	50%	1-5	20%	1-7	14%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	19.9	11	69%	6	1	0	1	1	2	3	3	1-1	100%	5-7	71%	0-1	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	19.3	1	25%	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.5	16	53%	7	2	1	0	3	0	1	6	4-6	67%	6-12	50%	0-0	-
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	17.1	2	50%	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	16.8	4	29%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	16.3	4	50%	3	0	0	1	1	2	0	3	4-6	67%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	12.0	2	17%	7	0	1	1	0	4	3	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-4	0%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	11.7	8	133%	1	4	0	1	1	2	0	1	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	8.6	0	0%	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	7.8	5	83%	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	6.1	6	60%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	46%	51	17	6	5	19	18	11	40	23-29	79%	32-62	52%	4-30	13%

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22 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	29.0	29	76%	6	9	2	0	0	0	0	6	5-6	83%	6-9	67%	4-7	57%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	27.2	12	46%	9	2	0	0	1	1	4	5	3-4	75%	3-7	43%	1-5	20%
Pascal Siakam #43 · C · 6'8" 245 · 32	26.4	11	32%	7	5	1	1	5	4	0	7	3-4	75%	4-12	33%	0-3	0%
Quenton Jackson #29 · SG · 6'4" 173 · 27	22.6	6	43%	1	1	1	0	2	4	1	0	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Johnny Furphy #12 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	20.4	10	83%	7	2	0	0	1	3	1	6	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-2	100%

Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	29.9	13	72%	9	4	4	1	1	2	2	7	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	20.0	3	50%	4	3	1	0	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	18.9	8	44%	2	2	3	1	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-4	0%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	16.6	12	60%	1	7	1	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	3-8	38%	2-2	100%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	16.0	14	100%	4	0	0	0	2	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	4-6	67%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	4.3	3	30%	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	3-4	75%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	4.3	0	0%	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	4.3	2	50%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Sprain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Concussion
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	55%	54	37	13	4	16	23	12	42	18-22	82%	27-58	47%	17-40	43%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	IND
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	IND

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.93 46.3%

IND

1.11 55.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

58%

IND

54%

Midrange

MIA

45%

IND

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

6.0

13%

20%

IND

25.5

43%

64%

Free Throws

MIA

79%

IND

82%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	21	50%	10.5 / 21
J. Jaquez	16	53%	8.0 / 15
B. Adebayo	13	54%	6.5 / 12
A. Wiggins	11	69%	5.5 / 8
D. Smith	8	133%	4.0 / 3
N. Powell	6	23%	3.0 / 13
K. Johnson	6	60%	3.0 / 5
S. Fontecchio	5	83%	2.5 / 3
N. Jović	4	29%	2.0 / 7
P. Larsson	4	50%	2.0 / 4
K. Ware	2	50%	1.0 / 2
M. Gardner	2	17%	1.0 / 6
D. Mitchell	1	25%	0.5 / 2
K. Jakučionis	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Nembhard	29	76%	14.5 / 19
M. Potter	14	100%	7.0 / 7
J. Walker	13	72%	6.5 / 9
A. Nesmith	12	46%	6.0 / 13
T. McConnell	12	60%	6.0 / 10
P. Siakam	11	32%	5.5 / 17
J. Furphy	10	83%	5.0 / 6
J. Huff	8	44%	4.0 / 9
Q. Jackson	6	43%	3.0 / 7
B. Sheppard	3	50%	1.5 / 3
T. Bradley	3	30%	1.5 / 5
K. Jones	2	50%	1.0 / 2
E. Thompson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 28 110.1	MIA 87.6 IND 109.8 +22.2
Pace	1 104.3 10 101.4	MIA 118.9 +12.2 IND 106.7
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 25 13.9	MIA 12.1 −1.4 IND 13.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 23 53.3%	MIA 41.3% IND 53.6% +12.3%
TO %	5 12.6% 14 13.6%	MIA 15.4% IND 14.3% −1.1%
ORB %	17 25.4% 29 21.7%	MIA 20.8% IND 23.1% +2.3%
FTrt	14 26.8 20 25.2	MIA 31.5 +9.1 IND 22.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 5 67.8%	MIA 47.2% IND 84.1% +36.9%
STL %	17 8.3% 28 7.2%	MIA 5.3% IND 11.6% +6.3%
BLK %	28 7.9% 26 8.1%	MIA 8.6% +2.1% IND 6.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 24 55.4%	MIA 46.3% IND 55.4% +9.1%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 25 62.9%	MIA 58.1% +4.0% IND 54.1%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 19 42.7%	MIA 45.2% +11.9% IND 33.3%
3P %	11 36.1% 18 35.6%	MIA 13.3% IND 42.5% +29.2%
FT %	11 79.2% 17 77.6%	MIA 79.3% IND 81.8% +2.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 23 30.3%	MIA 33.7% IND 37.8% +4.1%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 18 27.5%	MIA 33.7% IND 21.4% −12.3%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 14 42.2%	MIA 32.6% IND 40.8% +8.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	IND
Possessions	113	112
Possession Minutes	22.8	25.2
Points	99	123
Rebounds	51	54
Assists	17	37
Steals	6	13
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	19 (0)	16 (2)
Fouls	18	23
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (3)	12 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (2)	42 (3)
Field Goals	36-92	44-98
At-the-Rim FG	18-31	20-37
Midrange FG	14-31	7-21
2-Point FG	32-62	27-58
3-Point FG	4-30	17-40
Free Throws	23-29	18-22
Fast Break Pts	15	24
2nd Chance Pts	16	7
Points in Paint	58	44
Pts off Turnovers	19	27
Bench Points	47	55
Biggest Lead	0	29

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg