Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 10, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Spurs	41%	114	100	104.2	96	104.9
	4	Celtics	59%	117	95	96.9	98	90.3

Prediction updated: Jan 11, 2026 12:56 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+15

-8

103

BOS

+11

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

0.97 48.5%

BOS

0.96 48.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	36.4	21	62%	9	6	1	0	2	1	1	8	2-2	100%	8-10	80%	1-6	17%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	34.9	12	50%	13	3	0	1	0	3	3	10	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-8	25%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	26.6	9	25%	2	5	2	0	2	0	1	1	2-5	40%	2-9	22%	1-7	14%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	26.3	6	33%	1	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	24.4	5	83%	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	5	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-0	-

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	28.2	18	60%	10	1	1	0	2	2	3	7	4-5	80%	4-6	67%	2-7	29%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.4	21	55%	6	1	0	3	0	0	0	6	4-4	100%	7-13	54%	1-4	25%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	22.4	5	36%	4	1	0	0	2	4	1	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	6.6	3	0%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	3.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	49%	53	22	5	4	8	13	12	41	14-20	70%	28-51	55%	10-44	23%

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8 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	36.4	21	62%	9	6	1	0	2	1	1	8	2-2	100%	8-10	80%	1-6	17%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	34.9	12	50%	13	3	0	1	0	3	3	10	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-8	25%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	26.6	9	25%	2	5	2	0	2	0	1	1	2-5	40%	2-9	22%	1-7	14%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	26.3	6	33%	1	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	24.4	5	83%	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	5	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-0	-

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	28.2	18	60%	10	1	1	0	2	2	3	7	4-5	80%	4-6	67%	2-7	29%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.4	21	55%	6	1	0	3	0	0	0	6	4-4	100%	7-13	54%	1-4	25%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	22.4	5	36%	4	1	0	0	2	4	1	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	6.6	3	0%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	3.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	49%	53	22	5	4	8	13	12	41	14-20	70%	28-51	55%	10-44	23%

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4 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylen Brown #7 · SF · 6'6" 223 · 29	43.4	27	48%	8	7	0	0	5	4	0	8	0-0	-	6-17	35%	5-11	45%
Derrick White #9 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 32	42.1	29	54%	9	3	2	2	1	4	3	6	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	5-17	29%
Payton Pritchard #11 · SG · 6'1" 195 · 28	28.5	4	22%	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	5	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	23.8	9	64%	13	2	0	2	1	1	4	9	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Hugo González #28 · PF · 6'6" 200 · 20	12.7	0	0%	4	3	0	0	0	3	0	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%

Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 25	26.3	10	100%	2	0	2	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Anfernee Simons #4 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	25.5	5	31%	2	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-4	25%
Luka Garza #52 · C · 6'10" 243 · 27	25.1	11	92%	6	0	0	1	1	2	1	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-4	75%
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 22	12.7	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Ron Harper Jr. #13 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Boucher #99 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Max Shulga #44 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Amari Williams #77 · PF · 6'11" 250 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tightness
Jayson Tatum #0 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Repair
Josh Minott #8 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	48%	52	22	5	5	10	18	9	43	3-4	75%	22-49	45%	16-44	36%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	BOS
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	BOS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

SAS

0.97 48.5%

BOS

0.96 48.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

71%

BOS

50%

Midrange

SAS

43%

BOS

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

15.0

23%

34%

BOS

24.0

36%

55%

Free Throws

SAS

70%

BOS

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Fox	21	62%	10.5 / 17
V. Wembanyama	21	55%	10.5 / 19
K. Johnson	18	60%	9.0 / 15
J. Champagnie	12	50%	6.0 / 12
S. Castle	9	25%	4.5 / 18
H. Barnes	6	33%	3.0 / 9
L. Kornet	5	83%	2.5 / 3
D. Harper	5	36%	2.5 / 7
K. Olynyk	3	-	0.0 / 0
L. Waters	0	-	0.0 / 1
J. Sochan	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. White	29	54%	14.5 / 27
J. Brown	27	48%	13.5 / 28
L. Garza	11	92%	5.5 / 6
B. Scheierman	10	100%	5.0 / 5
N. Queta	9	64%	4.5 / 7
A. Simons	5	31%	2.5 / 8
P. Pritchard	4	22%	2.0 / 9
H. González	0	-	0.0 / 2
J. Walsh	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 2 120.0	SAS 104.2 +7.2 BOS 96.9
Pace	13 100.5 30 95.5	SAS 104.9 +14.6 BOS 90.3
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 2 15.7	SAS 13.7 −2.2 BOS 15.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 11 55.3%	SAS 45.3% BOS 49.5% +4.2%
TO %	4 12.5% 2 12.0%	SAS 7.2% −2.3% BOS 9.5%
ORB %	10 26.2% 6 29.2%	SAS 21.8% +3.8% BOS 18.0%
FTrt	12 27.3 30 20.7	SAS 21.1 +16.8 BOS 4.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 30 58.5%	SAS 57.9% BOS 57.9%
STL %	24 7.5% 25 7.4%	SAS 5.2% +0.1% BOS 5.1%
BLK %	10 10.0% 5 10.4%	SAS 8.2% BOS 9.8% +1.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.21 and 2.21.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 13 56.9%	SAS 48.5% +0.5% BOS 48.0%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 2 68.9%	SAS 71.4% +21.4% BOS 50.0%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 12 44.2%	SAS 43.3% +0.9% BOS 42.4%
3P %	15 35.9% 8 36.7%	SAS 22.7% BOS 36.4% +13.7%
FT %	12 78.7% 7 80.7%	SAS 70.0% BOS 75.0% +5.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 30 24.4%	SAS 22.1% +4.9% BOS 17.2%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 24 28.9%	SAS 31.6% −3.9% BOS 35.5%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 4 46.7%	SAS 46.3% BOS 47.3% +1.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.03 and 2.03.

Game Totals	SAS	BOS
Possessions	96	98
Possession Minutes	22.0	26.0
Points	100	95
Rebounds	53	52
Assists	22	22
Steals	5	5
Blocks	4	5
Turnovers (Team)	8 (0)	10 (0)
Fouls	13	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (3)	9 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (3)	43 (2)
Field Goals	38-95	38-93
At-the-Rim FG	15-21	8-16
Midrange FG	13-30	14-33
2-Point FG	28-51	22-49
3-Point FG	10-44	16-44
Free Throws	14-20	3-4
Fast Break Pts	11	4
2nd Chance Pts	19	8
Points in Paint	40	36
Pts off Turnovers	8	12
Bench Points	47	26
Biggest Lead	5	9

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg