Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 11, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Spurs	41%	113	103	104.0	99	106.0
	6	Timberwolves	59%	116	104	105.1	99	92.8

Prediction updated: Jan 11, 2026 11:56 PM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+15

-14

100

MIN

+14

-9

104

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.04 52.0%

MIN

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	36.3	14	70%	10	1	0	0	1	1	2	8	3-3	100%	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	34.7	11	34%	6	5	0	0	7	4	1	5	7-10	70%	2-10	20%	0-1	0%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.6	12	32%	8	4	1	0	2	1	0	8	0-0	-	6-13	46%	0-6	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	32.2	13	59%	1	4	0	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	3-6	50%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	27.0	29	73%	7	1	3	0	1	5	1	6	10-10	100%	5-9	56%	3-9	33%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	26.0	15	83%	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-4	75%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	23.0	6	75%	12	0	1	1	0	4	5	7	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	11.9	3	50%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	11.3	0	0%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-2	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	4.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	52%	49	19	6	1	14	22	10	39	22-25	88%	21-50	42%	13-38	34%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	36.3	14	70%	10	1	0	0	1	1	2	8	3-3	100%	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	34.7	11	34%	6	5	0	0	7	4	1	5	7-10	70%	2-10	20%	0-1	0%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.6	12	32%	8	4	1	0	2	1	0	8	0-0	-	6-13	46%	0-6	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	32.2	13	59%	1	4	0	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	3-6	50%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	27.0	29	73%	7	1	3	0	1	5	1	6	10-10	100%	5-9	56%	3-9	33%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	26.0	15	83%	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-4	75%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	23.0	6	75%	12	0	1	1	0	4	5	7	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	11.9	3	50%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	11.3	0	0%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-2	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	4.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	52%	49	19	6	1	14	22	10	39	22-25	88%	21-50	42%	13-38	34%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

6 Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Donte DiVincenzo #0 · PG · 6'4" 203 · 29	38.0	19	59%	9	7	3	1	2	3	1	8	0-0	-	2-4	50%	5-12	42%
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 24	37.8	23	50%	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	2	2-5	40%	9-16	56%	1-5	20%
Jaden McDaniels #3 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 25	36.2	12	60%	5	1	2	3	1	2	1	4	2-2	100%	5-6	83%	0-3	0%
Julius Randle #30 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	35.0	15	47%	8	4	1	0	2	3	3	5	7-12	58%	4-8	50%	0-3	0%
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 34	28.9	2	20%	14	3	1	1	0	3	4	10	0-2	0%	1-4	25%	0-0	-

Naz Reid #11 · C · 6'9" 264 · 26	31.5	17	47%	11	2	2	1	2	2	3	8	0-0	-	4-11	36%	3-7	43%
Bones Hyland #8 · PG · 6'2" 169 · 25	11.9	10	56%	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 38	11.9	4	100%	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Jaylen Clark #22 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	8.7	2	50%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Joe Ingles #7 · SF · 6'8" 220 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Leonard Miller #33 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Rob Dillingham #4 · PG · 6'2" 175 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Johnny Juzang #9 · SG · 6'7" 226 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Joan Beringer #19 · PF · 6'11" 230 · 19	DNP – Coach's Decision
Rocco Zikarsky #44 · C · 7'3" 227 · 20	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Enrique Freeman #25 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terrence Shannon Jr. #1 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Abductor Hallucis Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	51%	50	23	9	7	9	19	12	38	14-25	56%	27-51	53%	12-39	31%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIN
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.04 52.0%

MIN

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

44%

MIN

74%

Midrange

SAS

40%

MIN

36%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

19.5

34%

51%

MIN

18.0

31%

46%

Free Throws

SAS

88%

MIN

56%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	29	73%	14.5 / 20
K. Johnson	15	83%	7.5 / 9
J. Champagnie	14	70%	7.0 / 10
H. Barnes	13	59%	6.5 / 11
D. Fox	12	32%	6.0 / 19
S. Castle	11	34%	5.5 / 16
L. Kornet	6	75%	3.0 / 4
L. Waters	3	50%	1.5 / 3
D. Harper	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Timberwolves

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Edwards	23	50%	11.5 / 23
D. DiVincenzo	19	59%	9.5 / 16
N. Reid	17	47%	8.5 / 18
J. Randle	15	47%	7.5 / 16
J. McDaniels	12	60%	6.0 / 10
B. Hyland	10	56%	5.0 / 9
M. Conley	4	100%	2.0 / 2
R. Gobert	2	20%	1.0 / 5
J. Clark	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 13 115.7	SAS 104.0 MIN 105.1 +1.0
Pace	13 100.5 9 101.4	SAS 106.0 +13.2 MIN 92.8
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 15 14.4	SAS 13.6 −1.9 MIN 15.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 6 55.9%	SAS 46.0% MIN 50.0% +4.0%
TO %	4 12.5% 18 13.9%	SAS 12.4% MIN 8.2% −4.2%
ORB %	10 26.2% 15 25.7%	SAS 20.8% MIN 23.5% +2.7%
FTrt	12 27.3 7 28.5	SAS 28.4 +0.6 MIN 27.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 21 61.2%	SAS 55.9% MIN 59.0% +3.1%
STL %	24 7.5% 13 8.6%	SAS 6.1% MIN 9.1% +3.0%
BLK %	10 10.0% 6 10.4%	SAS 2.0% MIN 14.0% +12.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 8 57.6%	SAS 52.0% +1.5% MIN 50.5%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 10 65.7%	SAS 44.0% MIN 73.9% +29.9%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 14 43.7%	SAS 40.0% +4.3% MIN 35.7%
3P %	15 35.9% 6 37.0%	SAS 34.2% +3.4% MIN 30.8%
FT %	12 78.7% 29 75.2%	SAS 88.0% +32.0% MIN 56.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 9 33.0%	SAS 28.4% +2.9% MIN 25.6%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 10 25.0%	SAS 28.4% −2.7% MIN 31.1%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 16 42.0%	SAS 43.2% MIN 43.3% +0.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MIN
Possessions	99	99
Possession Minutes	22.4	25.6
Points	103	104
Rebounds	49	50
Assists	19	23
Steals	6	9
Blocks	1	7
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	9 (0)
Fouls	22	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (5)	12 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (3)	38 (2)
Field Goals	34-88	39-90
At-the-Rim FG	11-25	17-23
Midrange FG	10-25	10-28
2-Point FG	21-50	27-51
3-Point FG	13-38	12-39
Free Throws	22-25	14-25
Fast Break Pts	14	17
2nd Chance Pts	13	10
Points in Paint	32	50
Pts off Turnovers	8	17
Bench Points	24	33
Biggest Lead	19	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg