Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 11, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Hawks	28%	112	124	122.8	101	113.6
	2	Warriors	72%	120	111	108.8	102	91.8

Prediction updated: Jan 12, 2026 01:33 AM

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+14

-7

108

GSW

+13

-15

100

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.15 57.4%

GSW

1.11 55.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	33.8	24	63%	2	2	3	0	1	2	0	2	3-3	100%	6-11	55%	3-7	43%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	33.4	18	56%	12	8	2	0	1	4	5	7	3-4	75%	3-8	38%	3-6	50%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	32.7	23	61%	11	6	1	2	0	1	1	10	4-6	67%	8-12	67%	1-4	25%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	30.8	11	61%	7	9	0	1	3	4	2	5	1-2	50%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Vít Krejčí #27 · SF · 6'8" 195 · 26	21.3	5	42%	5	0	1	0	1	4	2	3	2-4	50%	0-0	-	1-4	25%

Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	24.5	5	83%	5	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	24.1	12	40%	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2-4	50%	5-10	50%	0-4	0%
Luke Kennard #4 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	19.9	22	100%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	6-9	67%
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	13.8	2	20%	2	3	1	0	1	1	0	2	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	3.6	0	0%	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	2.1	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Inflammation
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
RayJ Dennis #0 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendinitis
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	124	57%	46	33	9	4	7	21	11	35	17-25	68%	31-55	56%	15-39	38%

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14 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	33.8	24	63%	2	2	3	0	1	2	0	2	3-3	100%	6-11	55%	3-7	43%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	33.4	18	56%	12	8	2	0	1	4	5	7	3-4	75%	3-8	38%	3-6	50%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	32.7	23	61%	11	6	1	2	0	1	1	10	4-6	67%	8-12	67%	1-4	25%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	30.8	11	61%	7	9	0	1	3	4	2	5	1-2	50%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Vít Krejčí #27 · SF · 6'8" 195 · 26	21.3	5	42%	5	0	1	0	1	4	2	3	2-4	50%	0-0	-	1-4	25%

Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	24.5	5	83%	5	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	24.1	12	40%	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2-4	50%	5-10	50%	0-4	0%
Luke Kennard #4 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	19.9	22	100%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	6-9	67%
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	13.8	2	20%	2	3	1	0	1	1	0	2	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	3.6	0	0%	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	2.1	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Inflammation
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
RayJ Dennis #0 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendinitis
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	124	57%	46	33	9	4	7	21	11	35	17-25	68%	31-55	56%	15-39	38%

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2 Golden State Warriors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jimmy Butler III #10 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 36	33.7	30	71%	7	6	2	0	2	0	2	5	8-8	100%	8-13	62%	2-6	33%
Stephen Curry #30 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 38	32.6	31	67%	3	5	0	0	3	2	0	3	6-6	100%	8-10	80%	3-11	27%
Draymond Green #23 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 36	28.9	5	50%	9	4	0	1	1	4	0	9	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Quinten Post #21 · C · 7'0" 238 · 26	17.5	8	67%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-5	40%
Moses Moody #4 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 24	16.8	2	25%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-3	67%	0-0	-	0-3	0%

De'Anthony Melton #8 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 28	23.1	10	42%	5	3	1	1	2	1	1	4	0-1	0%	5-7	71%	0-5	0%
Brandin Podziemski #2 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 23	16.5	3	38%	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Gary Payton II #0 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 33	16.3	6	50%	5	0	1	0	2	2	3	2	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Gui Santos #15 · PF · 6'7" 185 · 24	16.0	5	83%	2	3	0	1	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Al Horford #20 · C · 6'8" 240 · 40	15.9	5	42%	8	2	0	1	1	1	3	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Will Richard #3 · SG · 6'3" 206 · 23	12.3	0	0%	1	2	0	0	3	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Buddy Hield #7 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 33	7.3	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · C · 6'9" 245 · 26	3.3	6	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-1	0%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Jonathan Kuminga #1 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Pat Spencer #61 · PG · 6'2" 205 · 30	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Malevy Leons #33 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
LJ Cryer #18 · PG · 6'0" 200 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Seth Curry #31 · SG · 6'1" 185 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sciatic Nerve; Irritation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	56%	48	28	5	4	15	21	11	37	17-21	81%	32-48	67%	10-42	24%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	GSW
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	GSW

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.15 57.4%

GSW

1.11 55.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

62%

GSW

71%

Midrange

ATL

53%

GSW

60%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

22.5

38%

58%

GSW

15.0

24%

36%

Free Throws

ATL

68%

GSW

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Alexander-Walker	24	63%	12.0 / 19
J. Johnson	23	61%	11.5 / 19
L. Kennard	22	100%	11.0 / 11
O. Okongwu	18	56%	9.0 / 16
C. McCollum	12	40%	6.0 / 15
D. Daniels	11	61%	5.5 / 9
V. Krejčí	5	42%	2.5 / 6
M. Gueye	5	83%	2.5 / 3
C. Kispert	2	20%	1.0 / 5
K. Wallace	2	100%	1.0 / 1
A. Newell	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Warriors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Curry	31	67%	15.5 / 23
J. Butler	30	71%	15.0 / 21
D. Melton	10	42%	5.0 / 12
Q. Post	8	67%	4.0 / 6
G. Payton	6	50%	3.0 / 6
T. Jackson-Davis	6	100%	3.0 / 3
D. Green	5	50%	2.5 / 5
G. Santos	5	83%	2.5 / 3
A. Horford	5	42%	2.5 / 6
B. Podziemski	3	38%	1.5 / 4
M. Moody	2	25%	1.0 / 4
W. Richard	0	-	0.0 / 2
B. Hield	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	14 115.1 19 114.0	ATL 122.8 +13.9 GSW 108.8
Pace	4 102.5 18 99.9	ATL 113.6 +21.8 GSW 91.8
Avg. Poss. Time	29 13.5 10 14.7	ATL 12.7 −3.0 GSW 15.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	10 55.4% 13 55.0%	ATL 56.9% +4.7% GSW 52.2%
TO %	8 13.0% 28 14.9%	ATL 7.9% −6.0% GSW 13.9%
ORB %	20 24.3% 14 25.8%	ATL 22.9% GSW 23.9% +1.0%
FTrt	27 23.4 24 23.8	ATL 26.6 +3.3 GSW 23.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 69.1% 1 70.6%	ATL 71.7% +5.0% GSW 66.7%
STL %	6 9.1% 3 9.6%	ATL 8.9% +4.0% GSW 4.9%
BLK %	18 8.8% 27 8.0%	ATL 8.3% +1.0% GSW 7.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	14 56.9% 11 57.1%	ATL 57.4% +1.9% GSW 55.5%
Rim FG%	21 63.3% 5 66.7%	ATL 61.9% GSW 71.4% +9.5%
Mid FG%	6 44.6% 22 42.1%	ATL 52.9% GSW 60.0% +7.1%
3P %	5 37.1% 20 35.6%	ATL 38.5% +14.7% GSW 23.8%
FT %	20 77.4% 6 80.7%	ATL 68.0% GSW 81.0% +13.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	13 32.1% 24 29.5%	ATL 22.3% GSW 31.1% +8.8%
Mid Att. %	9 25.0% 3 20.8%	ATL 36.2% GSW 22.2% −13.9%
3P Att. %	11 42.9% 1 49.7%	ATL 41.5% GSW 46.7% +5.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	GSW
Possessions	101	102
Possession Minutes	21.3	26.7
Points	124	111
Rebounds	46	48
Assists	33	28
Steals	9	5
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	7 (2)	15 (1)
Fouls	21	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (3)	11 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (2)	37 (0)
Field Goals	46-94	42-90
At-the-Rim FG	13-21	20-28
Midrange FG	18-34	12-20
2-Point FG	31-55	32-48
3-Point FG	15-39	10-42
Free Throws	17-25	17-21
Fast Break Pts	23	17
2nd Chance Pts	16	13
Points in Paint	46	54
Pts off Turnovers	28	11
Bench Points	43	35
Biggest Lead	25	10

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg