Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	20	Nuggets	62%	121	122	123.2	99	93.9
	27	Pelicans	38%	117	116	116.0	100	105.7

Prediction updated: Jan 14, 2026 12:56 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-7

NOP

+18

-15

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.23 61.6%

NOP

1.13 56.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

20 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	39.3	31	78%	7	5	2	1	2	3	0	7	8-9	89%	10-12	83%	1-4	25%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.4	35	80%	2	9	3	1	3	2	0	2	8-9	89%	6-11	55%	5-8	63%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	29.6	16	47%	7	1	2	0	0	3	3	4	3-5	60%	5-10	50%	1-5	20%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	29.3	16	89%	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	4-6	67%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	22.5	2	17%	5	0	0	1	0	6	1	4	0-2	0%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	32.6	18	75%	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	4	7-7	100%	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	24.3	4	40%	4	2	0	0	1	4	1	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	22.3	0	0%	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	2.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way \| G League - Two-Way
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Bone Bruise
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	62%	32	24	8	3	7	22	5	27	26-32	81%	27-49	55%	14-35	40%

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20 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	39.3	31	78%	7	5	2	1	2	3	0	7	8-9	89%	10-12	83%	1-4	25%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.4	35	80%	2	9	3	1	3	2	0	2	8-9	89%	6-11	55%	5-8	63%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	29.6	16	47%	7	1	2	0	0	3	3	4	3-5	60%	5-10	50%	1-5	20%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	29.3	16	89%	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	4-6	67%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	22.5	2	17%	5	0	0	1	0	6	1	4	0-2	0%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	32.6	18	75%	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	4	7-7	100%	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	24.3	4	40%	4	2	0	0	1	4	1	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	22.3	0	0%	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	2.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way \| G League - Two-Way
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Bone Bruise
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	62%	32	24	8	3	7	22	5	27	26-32	81%	27-49	55%	14-35	40%

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27 New Orleans Pelicans

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Trey Murphy III #25 · SG · 6'8" 206 · 26	34.0	31	78%	5	2	1	0	4	5	0	5	5-5	100%	7-10	70%	4-8	50%
Saddiq Bey #41 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 27	31.8	17	65%	4	2	0	0	0	3	1	3	8-10	80%	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Zion Williamson #1 · PF · 6'6" 284 · 26	31.5	12	46%	7	4	1	0	2	5	3	4	2-3	67%	5-12	42%	0-0	-
Derik Queen #22 · C · 6'9" 250 · 21	28.8	10	50%	13	5	0	0	1	2	4	9	0-0	-	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Jeremiah Fears #0 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 19	26.1	10	45%	3	3	0	1	4	0	1	2	4-4	100%	3-5	60%	0-4	0%

Jordan Hawkins #24 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 24	22.1	6	60%	5	2	0	1	1	1	2	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Jordan Poole #3 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 27	19.8	16	73%	1	2	1	0	3	2	0	1	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	4-7	57%
Yves Missi #21 · C · 6'11" 235 · 22	19.2	8	44%	7	0	1	1	0	1	3	4	4-5	80%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Karlo Matković #17 · PF · 6'10" 231 · 25	14.8	4	67%	5	1	1	1	0	0	2	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Micah Peavy #14 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 24	11.8	2	20%	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Kevon Looney #55 · C · 6'9" 222 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #9 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bryce McGowens #11 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way \| G League - Two-Way
Hunter Dickinson #4 · C · 7'1" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way \| G League - Two-Way
Herbert Jones #2 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Jose Alvarado #15 · PG · 6'0" 179 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Oblique; Strain
Dejounte Murray #5 · PG · 6'4" 180 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Rupture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	56%	51	21	6	4	15	20	16	35	27-31	87%	28-57	49%	11-29	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	NOP
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	NOP

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.23 61.6%

NOP

1.13 56.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

54%

NOP

65%

Midrange

DEN

57%

NOP

12%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

21.0

40%

60%

NOP

16.5

38%

57%

Free Throws

DEN

81%

NOP

87%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	35	80%	17.5 / 22
P. Watson	31	78%	15.5 / 20
T. Hardaway	18	75%	9.0 / 12
A. Gordon	16	47%	8.0 / 17
J. Pickett	16	89%	8.0 / 9
B. Brown	4	40%	2.0 / 5
S. Jones	2	17%	1.0 / 6
Z. Nnaji	0	-	0.0 / 4
H. Tyson	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pelicans

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Murphy	31	78%	15.5 / 20
S. Bey	17	65%	8.5 / 13
J. Poole	16	73%	8.0 / 11
Z. Williamson	12	46%	6.0 / 13
D. Queen	10	50%	5.0 / 10
J. Fears	10	45%	5.0 / 11
Y. Missi	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Hawkins	6	60%	3.0 / 5
K. Matković	4	67%	2.0 / 3
M. Peavy	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 20 113.3	DEN 123.2 +7.2 NOP 116.0
Pace	19 99.4 11 101.3	DEN 93.9 NOP 105.7 +11.8
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 22 14.1	DEN 15.3 NOP 13.6 −1.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 27 52.7%	DEN 57.1% +5.4% NOP 51.7%
TO %	3 12.1% 11 13.2%	DEN 6.7% −6.4% NOP 13.1%
ORB %	24 23.6% 8 27.0%	DEN 12.5% NOP 37.2% +24.7%
FTrt	4 29.4 8 28.4	DEN 38.1 +2.1 NOP 36.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 26 59.6%	DEN 58.5% +4.7% NOP 53.8%
STL %	30 6.8% 10 8.7%	DEN 8.1% +2.1% NOP 6.0%
BLK %	29 7.6% 7 10.1%	DEN 5.3% NOP 8.2% +2.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 25 55.4%	DEN 61.6% +5.3% NOP 56.3%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 29 61.5%	DEN 53.8% NOP 65.0% +11.2%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 30 36.6%	DEN 56.5% +44.7% NOP 11.8%
3P %	1 39.6% 24 34.7%	DEN 40.0% +2.1% NOP 37.9%
FT %	5 80.8% 14 78.4%	DEN 81.3% NOP 87.1% +5.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 1 42.8%	DEN 31.0% NOP 46.5% +15.6%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 5 21.7%	DEN 27.4% NOP 19.8% −7.6%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 27 35.5%	DEN 41.7% +7.9% NOP 33.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.79 and 2.79.

Game Totals	DEN	NOP
Possessions	99	100
Possession Minutes	25.3	22.7
Points	122	116
Rebounds	32	51
Assists	24	21
Steals	8	6
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	7 (0)	15 (0)
Fouls	22	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	5 (2)	16 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (3)	35 (3)
Field Goals	41-84	39-86
At-the-Rim FG	14-26	26-40
Midrange FG	13-23	2-17
2-Point FG	27-49	28-57
3-Point FG	14-35	11-29
Free Throws	26-32	27-31
Fast Break Pts	9	8
2nd Chance Pts	7	14
Points in Paint	38	56
Pts off Turnovers	16	4
Bench Points	22	36
Biggest Lead	6	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg