Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Spurs	23%	107	98	103.2	95	100.5
	1	Thunder	77%	117	119	125.3	95	90.1

Prediction updated: Jan 14, 2026 12:56 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+15

-11

OKC

+12

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

0.99 49.5%

OKC

1.27 63.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	36.2	20	63%	7	8	1	0	5	3	0	7	5-7	71%	3-8	38%	3-5	60%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	34.0	13	59%	6	1	0	1	0	2	1	5	1-3	33%	0-1	0%	4-9	44%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.7	14	70%	5	5	1	0	2	5	0	5	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-5	40%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	27.7	17	47%	7	1	0	1	1	2	4	3	3-6	50%	7-14	50%	0-1	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	23.7	2	14%	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-5	0%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	25.6	12	67%	3	3	0	0	1	2	0	3	4-4	100%	1-4	25%	2-3	67%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	20.3	9	41%	3	0	0	0	1	4	1	2	0-0	-	3-6	50%	1-5	20%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	20.3	8	50%	8	1	2	0	1	3	6	2	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	13.4	3	30%	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	1.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	1.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	50%	42	21	4	3	11	25	12	30	17-24	71%	21-48	44%	13-37	35%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	36.2	20	63%	7	8	1	0	5	3	0	7	5-7	71%	3-8	38%	3-5	60%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	34.0	13	59%	6	1	0	1	0	2	1	5	1-3	33%	0-1	0%	4-9	44%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.7	14	70%	5	5	1	0	2	5	0	5	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-5	40%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	27.7	17	47%	7	1	0	1	1	2	4	3	3-6	50%	7-14	50%	0-1	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	23.7	2	14%	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-5	0%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	25.6	12	67%	3	3	0	0	1	2	0	3	4-4	100%	1-4	25%	2-3	67%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	20.3	9	41%	3	0	0	0	1	4	1	2	0-0	-	3-6	50%	1-5	20%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	20.3	8	50%	8	1	2	0	1	3	6	2	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	13.4	3	30%	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	1.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	1.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	50%	42	21	4	3	11	25	12	30	17-24	71%	21-48	44%	13-37	35%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	33.7	34	61%	5	5	0	4	2	2	0	5	11-13	85%	10-19	53%	1-4	25%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	30.4	20	63%	0	3	2	0	3	2	0	0	2-2	100%	9-15	60%	0-0	-
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SF · 6'5" 190 · 27	26.3	5	42%	5	4	0	2	1	0	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-5	20%
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	25.2	8	57%	10	0	0	3	1	3	1	9	6-6	100%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	23.0	6	100%	1	1	3	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%

Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	30.2	11	61%	6	4	1	0	3	4	2	4	3-3	100%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	22.8	11	50%	10	5	0	2	0	3	2	8	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-7	29%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	19.9	13	81%	2	4	1	0	0	2	0	2	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	2-4	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	14.3	8	133%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-2	100%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	14.2	3	150%	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Soreness
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	63%	43	26	7	11	11	23	5	38	24-27	89%	31-51	61%	11-30	37%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	OKC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

0.99 49.5%

OKC

1.27 63.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

48%

OKC

76%

Midrange

SAS

35%

OKC

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

19.5

35%

53%

OKC

16.5

37%

55%

Free Throws

SAS

71%

OKC

89%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Castle	20	63%	10.0 / 16
V. Wembanyama	17	47%	8.5 / 18
D. Fox	14	70%	7.0 / 10
J. Champagnie	13	59%	6.5 / 11
D. Harper	12	67%	6.0 / 9
K. Johnson	9	41%	4.5 / 11
L. Kornet	8	50%	4.0 / 8
L. Waters	3	30%	1.5 / 5
H. Barnes	2	14%	1.0 / 7
J. McLaughlin	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	34	61%	17.0 / 28
J. Williams	20	63%	10.0 / 16
A. Caruso	13	81%	6.5 / 8
A. Mitchell	11	61%	5.5 / 9
J. Williams	11	50%	5.5 / 11
C. Holmgren	8	57%	4.0 / 7
I. Joe	8	133%	4.0 / 3
C. Wallace	6	100%	3.0 / 3
A. Wiggins	5	42%	2.5 / 6
K. Williams	3	150%	1.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 7 117.6	SAS 103.2 OKC 125.3 +22.1
Pace	13 100.5 15 100.3	SAS 100.5 +10.4 OKC 90.1
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 20 14.1	SAS 14.3 −1.7 OKC 16.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 4 56.1%	SAS 47.6% OKC 58.6% +11.0%
TO %	4 12.5% 1 11.8%	SAS 11.2% OKC 10.6% −0.6%
ORB %	10 26.2% 28 22.3%	SAS 24.0% +9.7% OKC 14.3%
FTrt	12 27.3 17 26.1	SAS 28.2 OKC 33.3 +5.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 25 59.8%	SAS 61.8% OKC 61.9% +0.1%
STL %	24 7.5% 4 9.6%	SAS 4.2% OKC 7.4% +3.2%
BLK %	10 10.0% 2 11.0%	SAS 5.9% OKC 22.9% +17.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 4 58.5%	SAS 49.5% OKC 63.3% +13.8%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 11 65.2%	SAS 48.4% OKC 76.0% +27.6%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 1 47.6%	SAS 35.3% OKC 46.2% +10.9%
3P %	15 35.9% 9 36.5%	SAS 35.1% OKC 36.7% +1.6%
FT %	12 78.7% 3 81.7%	SAS 70.8% OKC 88.9% +18.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 16 31.3%	SAS 36.5% +5.6% OKC 30.9%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 15 26.1%	SAS 20.0% −12.1% OKC 32.1%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 13 42.6%	SAS 43.5% +6.5% OKC 37.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	OKC
Possessions	95	95
Possession Minutes	22.7	25.3
Points	98	119
Rebounds	42	43
Assists	21	26
Steals	4	7
Blocks	3	11
Turnovers (Team)	11 (1)	11 (0)
Fouls	25	23
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (3)	5 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (0)	38 (1)
Field Goals	34-85	42-81
At-the-Rim FG	15-31	19-25
Midrange FG	6-17	12-26
2-Point FG	21-48	31-51
3-Point FG	13-37	11-30
Free Throws	17-24	24-27
Fast Break Pts	7	11
2nd Chance Pts	12	14
Points in Paint	40	56
Pts off Turnovers	17	9
Bench Points	32	46
Biggest Lead	4	24

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg