Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, January 15, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	12	Bucks	34%	112	101	103.1	98	91.6
	5	Spurs	66%	117	119	121.4	98	105.4

Prediction updated: Jan 16, 2026 01:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MIL

+14

-13

SAS

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIL

1.03 51.5%

SAS

1.31 65.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

12 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ryan Rollins #13 · SG · 6'3" 180 · 24	25.9	6	33%	7	7	1	1	1	5	3	4	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · PG · 6'5" 203 · 26	23.4	0	0%	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-5	0%	0-4	0%
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	22.7	5	36%	3	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	22.0	21	70%	5	1	2	0	3	1	2	3	6-9	67%	6-11	55%	1-1	100%
AJ Green #20 · SF · 6'4" 190 · 26	15.0	6	75%	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-3	67%

Kyle Kuzma #18 · PF · 6'8" 221 · 30	21.5	18	53%	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	5-13	38%
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 31	20.5	3	150%	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	20.4	13	81%	6	3	1	0	1	2	0	6	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-5	60%
Cole Anthony #50 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 26	13.9	7	58%	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-1	100%
Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	13.6	3	30%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-5	20%
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	10.3	7	88%	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	4-4	100%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Amir Coffey #17 · SG · 6'7" 210 · 29	10.3	7	50%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	10.3	1	50%	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	6.4	2	100%	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 33	3.8	2	100%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	52%	37	24	6	3	13	21	10	27	16-22	73%	17-39	44%	17-48	35%

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12 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ryan Rollins #13 · SG · 6'3" 180 · 24	25.9	6	33%	7	7	1	1	1	5	3	4	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · PG · 6'5" 203 · 26	23.4	0	0%	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-5	0%	0-4	0%
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	22.7	5	36%	3	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	22.0	21	70%	5	1	2	0	3	1	2	3	6-9	67%	6-11	55%	1-1	100%
AJ Green #20 · SF · 6'4" 190 · 26	15.0	6	75%	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-3	67%

Kyle Kuzma #18 · PF · 6'8" 221 · 30	21.5	18	53%	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	5-13	38%
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 31	20.5	3	150%	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	20.4	13	81%	6	3	1	0	1	2	0	6	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-5	60%
Cole Anthony #50 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 26	13.9	7	58%	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-1	100%
Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	13.6	3	30%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-5	20%
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	10.3	7	88%	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	4-4	100%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Amir Coffey #17 · SG · 6'7" 210 · 29	10.3	7	50%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	10.3	1	50%	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	6.4	2	100%	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 33	3.8	2	100%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	52%	37	24	6	3	13	21	10	27	16-22	73%	17-39	44%	17-48	35%

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5 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	26.2	19	86%	1	10	0	0	0	2	1	0	6-6	100%	5-7	71%	1-2	50%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	23.7	13	108%	11	1	1	0	2	1	0	11	4-4	100%	0-1	0%	3-5	60%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	23.0	18	69%	4	4	0	0	4	0	1	3	3-6	50%	3-6	50%	3-4	75%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	21.7	22	85%	10	1	0	2	1	2	1	9	3-3	100%	2-6	33%	5-6	83%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	16.3	6	60%	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	25.2	13	46%	4	5	0	0	1	1	1	3	1-2	50%	6-8	75%	0-5	0%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	21.3	7	70%	8	2	3	0	2	3	1	7	4-4	100%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	20.1	2	14%	5	0	1	0	1	1	2	3	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	20.1	10	100%	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	14.7	3	75%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	10.3	4	67%	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	10.3	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	7.1	0	0%	1	0	1	0	3	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	65%	50	28	7	2	16	19	8	42	23-27	85%	24-42	57%	16-37	43%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIL	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	MIL	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIL

1.03 51.5%

SAS

1.31 65.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIL

61%

SAS

63%

Midrange

MIL

29%

SAS

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIL

25.5

35%

53%

SAS

24.0

43%

65%

Free Throws

MIL

73%

SAS

85%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Antetokounmpo	21	70%	10.5 / 15
K. Kuzma	18	53%	9.0 / 17
B. Portis	13	81%	6.5 / 8
C. Anthony	7	58%	3.5 / 6
A. Jackson	7	88%	3.5 / 4
A. Coffey	7	50%	3.5 / 7
R. Rollins	6	33%	3.0 / 9
A. Green	6	75%	3.0 / 4
M. Turner	5	36%	2.5 / 7
G. Harris	3	150%	1.5 / 1
G. Trent	3	30%	1.5 / 5
P. Nance	2	100%	1.0 / 1
T. Antetokounmpo	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Sims	1	50%	0.5 / 1
K. Porter	0	-	0.0 / 9

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	22	85%	11.0 / 13
S. Castle	19	86%	9.5 / 11
D. Fox	18	69%	9.0 / 13
J. Champagnie	13	108%	6.5 / 6
D. Harper	13	46%	6.5 / 14
L. Kornet	10	100%	5.0 / 5
K. Johnson	7	70%	3.5 / 5
H. Barnes	6	60%	3.0 / 5
K. Olynyk	4	67%	2.0 / 3
L. Waters	3	75%	1.5 / 2
C. Bryant	2	14%	1.0 / 7
J. Sochan	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. McLaughlin	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	24 112.3 3 118.9	MIL 103.1 SAS 121.4 +18.4
Pace	24 98.1 13 100.5	MIL 91.6 SAS 105.4 +13.8
Avg. Poss. Time	7 14.8 18 14.2	MIL 15.7 SAS 13.7 −2.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	3 56.5% 7 55.9%	MIL 48.9% SAS 60.8% +11.9%
TO %	24 14.7% 4 12.5%	MIL 11.9% −3.9% SAS 15.8%
ORB %	30 21.1% 10 26.2%	MIL 19.2% SAS 22.9% +3.7%
FTrt	29 22.3 12 27.3	MIL 25.3 SAS 34.2 +8.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	17 63.3% 13 64.6%	MIL 70.6% +0.6% SAS 70.0%
STL %	23 7.5% 24 7.5%	MIL 6.1% SAS 7.1% +1.0%
BLK %	25 8.2% 10 10.0%	MIL 7.1% +2.0% SAS 5.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	9 57.5% 6 58.1%	MIL 51.5% SAS 65.4% +13.9%
Rim FG%	4 67.1% 9 65.8%	MIL 61.1% SAS 62.5% +1.4%
Mid FG%	20 42.6% 5 45.1%	MIL 28.6% SAS 50.0% +21.4%
3P %	2 38.7% 15 35.9%	MIL 35.4% SAS 43.2% +7.8%
FT %	30 73.0% 12 78.7%	MIL 72.7% SAS 85.2% +12.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	27 28.2% 7 34.4%	MIL 20.7% SAS 30.4% +9.7%
Mid Att. %	16 26.1% 7 23.4%	MIL 24.1% SAS 22.8% −1.4%
3P Att. %	5 45.7% 15 42.2%	MIL 55.2% +8.3% SAS 46.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Game Totals	MIL	SAS
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	25.7	22.3
Points	101	119
Rebounds	37	50
Assists	24	28
Steals	6	7
Blocks	3	2
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	16 (1)
Fouls	21	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (4)	8 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (3)	42 (0)
Field Goals	34-87	40-79
At-the-Rim FG	11-18	15-24
Midrange FG	6-21	9-18
2-Point FG	17-39	24-42
3-Point FG	17-48	16-37
Free Throws	16-22	23-27
Fast Break Pts	12	18
2nd Chance Pts	11	13
Points in Paint	30	38
Pts off Turnovers	18	8
Bench Points	63	41
Biggest Lead	5	39

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg