Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 17, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	30	Jazz	41%	117	120	117.6	102	97.7
	27	Mavericks	59%	120	138	135.3	102	106.7

Prediction updated: Jan 17, 2026 09:56 PM

Scoring Opportunities

UTA

+13

-15

100

DAL

+18

-11

109

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.21 60.6%

DAL

1.27 63.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

30 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	37.2	29	81%	1	6	2	1	1	1	0	1	7-8	88%	5-9	56%	4-6	67%
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 19	37.0	18	56%	8	1	0	0	3	4	2	6	0-0	-	6-10	60%	2-6	33%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	29.3	13	59%	12	5	1	1	1	5	3	9	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Cody Williams #5 · PF · 6'8" 190 · 21	27.6	11	69%	4	2	1	0	3	1	1	3	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Collier #8 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 21	22.2	9	56%	1	4	1	0	2	5	1	0	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-3	33%

Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	29.7	25	54%	6	2	0	0	0	0	2	4	4-6	67%	9-13	69%	1-7	14%
Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	26.6	5	50%	3	8	0	0	2	5	0	3	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	18.7	8	57%	2	2	0	1	2	4	1	1	0-2	0%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	11.7	2	100%	4	0	0	0	1	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	61%	41	30	5	3	15	27	11	30	14-20	70%	38-58	66%	10-31	32%

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30 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	37.2	29	81%	1	6	2	1	1	1	0	1	7-8	88%	5-9	56%	4-6	67%
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 19	37.0	18	56%	8	1	0	0	3	4	2	6	0-0	-	6-10	60%	2-6	33%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	29.3	13	59%	12	5	1	1	1	5	3	9	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Cody Williams #5 · PF · 6'8" 190 · 21	27.6	11	69%	4	2	1	0	3	1	1	3	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Collier #8 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 21	22.2	9	56%	1	4	1	0	2	5	1	0	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-3	33%

Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	29.7	25	54%	6	2	0	0	0	0	2	4	4-6	67%	9-13	69%	1-7	14%
Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	26.6	5	50%	3	8	0	0	2	5	0	3	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	18.7	8	57%	2	2	0	1	2	4	1	1	0-2	0%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	11.7	2	100%	4	0	0	0	1	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	61%	41	30	5	3	15	27	11	30	14-20	70%	38-58	66%	10-31	32%

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27 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Naji Marshall #13 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 28	29.0	16	80%	5	6	1	0	3	4	0	5	1-3	33%	6-7	86%	1-2	50%
Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 26	27.5	22	73%	4	5	2	0	2	0	3	1	4-4	100%	6-9	67%	2-4	50%
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 34	26.6	10	83%	8	3	3	0	0	1	3	5	4-8	50%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Max Christie #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 23	25.8	22	69%	2	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	5-6	83%	4-7	57%	3-6	50%
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 30	21.3	3	25%	6	5	0	0	1	2	0	6	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%

Moussa Cisse #30 · C · 6'11" 220 · 23	21.4	9	56%	10	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	1-4	25%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Ryan Nembhard #9 · PG · 5'11" 180 · 23	20.5	7	58%	1	4	0	0	1	2	0	1	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	2-2	100%
Klay Thompson #31 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 36	20.1	23	88%	0	3	0	2	0	2	0	0	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	6-11	55%
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	19.7	6	60%	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	3	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	17.3	12	43%	1	3	0	0	3	3	1	0	0-2	0%	3-7	43%	2-6	33%
Miles Kelly #14 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 23	10.8	8	50%	3	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
D'Angelo Russell #5 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery
Cooper Flagg #32 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 19	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Anthony Davis #3 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 27	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	138	63%	44	36	8	2	11	18	13	31	22-36	61%	31-50	62%	18-41	44%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	DAL
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	DAL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.21 60.6%

DAL

1.27 63.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

UTA

81%

DAL

83%

Midrange

UTA

57%

DAL

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

UTA

15.0

32%

48%

DAL

27.0

44%

66%

Free Throws

UTA

70%

DAL

61%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. George	29	81%	14.5 / 18
B. Sensabaugh	25	54%	12.5 / 23
A. Bailey	18	56%	9.0 / 16
K. Filipowski	13	59%	6.5 / 11
C. Williams	11	69%	5.5 / 8
I. Collier	9	56%	4.5 / 8
K. Anderson	8	57%	4.0 / 7
W. Clayton	5	50%	2.5 / 5
T. Hendricks	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Thompson	23	88%	11.5 / 13
B. Williams	22	73%	11.0 / 15
M. Christie	22	69%	11.0 / 16
N. Marshall	16	80%	8.0 / 10
J. Hardy	12	43%	6.0 / 14
D. Powell	10	83%	5.0 / 6
M. Cisse	9	56%	4.5 / 8
M. Kelly	8	50%	4.0 / 8
R. Nembhard	7	58%	3.5 / 6
J. Robinson-Earl	6	60%	3.0 / 5
C. Martin	3	25%	1.5 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	22 112.9 27 110.4	UTA 117.6 DAL 135.3 +17.6
Pace	2 103.4 6 102.5	UTA 97.7 DAL 106.7 +9.0
Avg. Poss. Time	27 13.8 24 14.0	UTA 14.7 DAL 13.5 −1.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.6% 28 52.7%	UTA 59.6% DAL 63.7% +4.1%
TO %	23 14.4% 13 13.5%	UTA 13.3% DAL 9.3% −4.0%
ORB %	12 26.2% 26 23.2%	UTA 26.2% DAL 30.2% +4.0%
FTrt	10 27.7 6 28.7	UTA 22.5 DAL 39.6 +17.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	2 69.6% 22 60.4%	UTA 62.5% DAL 73.5% +11.0%
STL %	14 8.5% 27 7.3%	UTA 4.9% DAL 7.8% +2.9%
BLK %	30 7.5% 16 9.0%	UTA 6.0% +2.6% DAL 3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	18 56.4% 28 55.2%	UTA 60.6% DAL 63.3% +2.7%
Rim FG%	17 64.5% 22 63.2%	UTA 81.0% DAL 83.3% +2.3%
Mid FG%	8 44.4% 18 43.1%	UTA 56.8% +14.5% DAL 42.3%
3P %	25 34.5% 26 34.4%	UTA 32.3% DAL 43.9% +11.6%
FT %	13 78.6% 28 75.5%	UTA 70.0% +8.9% DAL 61.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	17 31.3% 12 32.8%	UTA 23.6% DAL 26.4% +2.8%
Mid Att. %	23 28.4% 28 31.7%	UTA 41.6% DAL 28.6% −13.0%
3P Att. %	21 40.3% 26 35.5%	UTA 34.8% DAL 45.1% +10.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	UTA	DAL
Possessions	102	102
Possession Minutes	25.1	22.9
Points	120	138
Rebounds	41	44
Assists	30	36
Steals	5	8
Blocks	3	2
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	11 (0)
Fouls	27	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (2)	13 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (2)	31 (2)
Field Goals	48-89	49-91
At-the-Rim FG	17-21	20-24
Midrange FG	21-37	11-26
2-Point FG	38-58	31-50
3-Point FG	10-31	18-41
Free Throws	14-20	22-36
Fast Break Pts	13	32
2nd Chance Pts	21	15
Points in Paint	54	54
Pts off Turnovers	8	20
Bench Points	40	65
Biggest Lead	0	23

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg