Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 17, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	1	Thunder	79%	117	120	118.8	101	105.4
	16	Heat	21%	107	122	120.8	101	97.0

Prediction updated: Jan 18, 2026 01:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

OKC

-14

MIA

+28

-4

125

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.29 64.5%

MIA

0.98 48.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	36.3	39	78%	4	3	1	0	2	4	2	2	13-13	100%	10-16	63%	2-3	67%
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	30.2	14	54%	11	2	0	5	2	2	2	9	2-3	67%	6-10	60%	0-2	0%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	22.1	9	75%	6	3	0	0	1	1	0	6	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	21.9	2	20%	4	0	0	1	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	13.6	8	80%	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-2	100%

Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	27.7	15	54%	4	2	1	0	5	3	1	3	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	1-6	17%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	27.6	18	90%	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	0-0	-	3-3	100%	4-7	57%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	21.0	5	50%	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	4	2-4	50%	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	19.2	8	80%	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	3	2-4	50%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	17.8	2	50%	1	4	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	2.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	INACTIVE
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	INACTIVE
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	65%	46	23	3	6	14	19	5	41	23-28	82%	29-48	60%	13-29	45%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	36.3	39	78%	4	3	1	0	2	4	2	2	13-13	100%	10-16	63%	2-3	67%
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	30.2	14	54%	11	2	0	5	2	2	2	9	2-3	67%	6-10	60%	0-2	0%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	22.1	9	75%	6	3	0	0	1	1	0	6	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	21.9	2	20%	4	0	0	1	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	13.6	8	80%	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-2	100%

Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	27.7	15	54%	4	2	1	0	5	3	1	3	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	1-6	17%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	27.6	18	90%	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	0-0	-	3-3	100%	4-7	57%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	21.0	5	50%	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	4	2-4	50%	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	19.2	8	80%	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	3	2-4	50%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	17.8	2	50%	1	4	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	2.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	INACTIVE
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	INACTIVE
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	65%	46	23	3	6	14	19	5	41	23-28	82%	29-48	60%	13-29	45%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	35.4	19	53%	4	4	2	1	1	2	0	4	4-7	57%	0-3	0%	5-12	42%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	32.2	15	47%	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	2	1-2	50%	4-10	40%	2-5	40%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	32.0	30	60%	12	4	1	0	1	2	6	6	6-6	100%	3-12	25%	6-10	60%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	29.5	16	50%	3	2	1	0	1	3	1	2	2-4	50%	7-12	58%	0-3	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 20	26.7	3	21%	5	7	0	0	0	6	0	5	0-0	-	0-3	0%	1-4	25%

Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	20.9	5	25%	2	2	0	1	0	1	1	1	3-4	75%	1-6	17%	0-2	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	17.6	13	81%	5	3	0	0	1	5	4	1	3-3	100%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	16.0	7	32%	9	0	1	1	0	0	5	4	0-0	-	2-8	25%	1-3	33%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	15.1	3	19%	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	14.6	11	138%	5	1	0	1	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-3	100%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Big Toe/rib; Contusion
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Contusion
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	49%	51	30	7	4	4	21	21	30	20-28	71%	21-61	34%	20-50	40%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	MIA

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

SHOOTING

Live advanced shooting dashboard requires a premium subscription for some games.

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.29 64.5%

MIA

0.98 48.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

OKC

71%

MIA

50%

Midrange

OKC

50%

MIA

15%

3PT | Effective 3PT

OKC

19.5

45%

67%

MIA

30.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

OKC

82%

MIA

71%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	39	78%	19.5 / 25
A. Wiggins	18	90%	9.0 / 10
A. Mitchell	15	54%	7.5 / 14
C. Holmgren	14	54%	7.0 / 13
C. Wallace	9	75%	4.5 / 6
J. Williams	8	80%	4.0 / 5
I. Joe	8	80%	4.0 / 5
A. Caruso	5	50%	2.5 / 5
L. Dort	2	20%	1.0 / 5
J. Williams	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	30	60%	15.0 / 25
N. Powell	19	53%	9.5 / 18
P. Larsson	16	50%	8.0 / 16
A. Wiggins	15	47%	7.5 / 16
S. Fontecchio	13	81%	6.5 / 8
M. Gardner	11	138%	5.5 / 4
K. Ware	7	32%	3.5 / 11
D. Smith	5	25%	2.5 / 10
K. Jakučionis	3	21%	1.5 / 7
N. Jović	3	19%	1.5 / 8

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 117.6 12 115.8	OKC 118.8 MIA 120.8 +2.0
Pace	15 100.3 1 104.3	OKC 105.4 +8.4 MIA 97.0
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.1 30 13.1	OKC 13.7 −1.2 MIA 14.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.1% 18 54.2%	OKC 63.0% +17.1% MIA 45.9%
TO %	1 11.8% 5 12.6%	OKC 14.4% MIA 3.1% −11.3%
ORB %	28 22.3% 17 25.4%	OKC 14.3% MIA 33.9% +19.6%
FTrt	17 26.1 14 26.8	OKC 36.4 +11.2 MIA 25.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	25 59.8% 10 66.3%	OKC 54.8% MIA 73.2% +18.4%
STL %	4 9.6% 17 8.3%	OKC 3.0% MIA 6.9% +3.9%
BLK %	2 11.0% 28 7.9%	OKC 9.8% +1.5% MIA 8.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 58.5% 15 56.8%	OKC 64.5% +15.7% MIA 48.8%
Rim FG%	11 65.2% 20 63.6%	OKC 70.8% +20.8% MIA 50.0%
Mid FG%	1 47.6% 21 42.4%	OKC 50.0% +35.2% MIA 14.8%
3P %	9 36.5% 11 36.1%	OKC 44.8% +4.8% MIA 40.0%
FT %	3 81.7% 11 79.2%	OKC 82.1% +10.7% MIA 71.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	16 31.3% 11 32.9%	OKC 31.2% +0.5% MIA 30.6%
Mid Att. %	15 26.1% 17 26.5%	OKC 31.2% MIA 24.3% −6.8%
3P Att. %	13 42.6% 18 40.6%	OKC 37.7% MIA 45.0% +7.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	OKC	MIA
Possessions	101	101
Possession Minutes	23.0	25.0
Points	120	122
Rebounds	46	51
Assists	23	30
Steals	3	7
Blocks	6	4
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	4 (0)
Fouls	19	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	5 (1)	21 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (3)	30 (2)
Field Goals	42-77	41-111
At-the-Rim FG	17-24	17-34
Midrange FG	12-24	4-27
2-Point FG	29-48	21-61
3-Point FG	13-29	20-50
Free Throws	23-28	20-28
Fast Break Pts	15	9
2nd Chance Pts	9	33
Points in Paint	50	40
Pts off Turnovers	7	21
Bench Points	48	39
Biggest Lead	12	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg