Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, January 22, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Spurs	83%	126	126	126.0	100	96.8
	30	Jazz	17%	114	109	110.1	99	102.3

Prediction updated: Jan 23, 2026 01:32 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+10

-10

100

UTA

+13

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.26 63.0%

UTA

1.14 56.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	37.8	16	47%	7	8	2	0	1	2	2	5	7-10	70%	3-9	33%	1-3	33%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	35.1	31	103%	5	5	0	1	1	4	0	5	5-6	83%	4-4	100%	6-9	67%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	33.8	17	85%	3	3	1	1	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	5-9	56%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	32.6	26	87%	13	3	1	5	3	2	1	12	4-4	100%	5-7	71%	4-7	57%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.9	2	20%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	31.5	21	55%	1	5	1	1	0	2	1	0	2-2	100%	8-15	53%	1-4	25%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	13.4	4	50%	3	2	1	2	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	13.4	7	70%	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	8.8	0	0%	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.2	2	25%	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	3.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor l; Strain
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Tightness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	63%	41	30	8	11	10	13	7	34	20-24	83%	26-44	59%	18-43	42%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	37.8	16	47%	7	8	2	0	1	2	2	5	7-10	70%	3-9	33%	1-3	33%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	35.1	31	103%	5	5	0	1	1	4	0	5	5-6	83%	4-4	100%	6-9	67%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	33.8	17	85%	3	3	1	1	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	5-9	56%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	32.6	26	87%	13	3	1	5	3	2	1	12	4-4	100%	5-7	71%	4-7	57%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.9	2	20%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	31.5	21	55%	1	5	1	1	0	2	1	0	2-2	100%	8-15	53%	1-4	25%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	13.4	4	50%	3	2	1	2	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	13.4	7	70%	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	8.8	0	0%	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.2	2	25%	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	3.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor l; Strain
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Tightness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	63%	41	30	8	11	10	13	7	34	20-24	83%	26-44	59%	18-43	42%

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30 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	35.3	23	72%	4	5	2	1	1	2	1	3	5-5	100%	3-10	30%	4-5	80%
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	34.8	17	43%	11	14	1	1	1	4	0	11	2-3	67%	6-13	46%	1-6	17%
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 19	32.3	25	78%	6	2	0	0	2	3	4	2	1-1	100%	9-13	69%	2-3	67%
Cody Williams #5 · PF · 6'8" 190 · 21	22.7	12	60%	7	3	1	0	1	3	4	3	1-2	50%	4-7	57%	1-2	50%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 29	18.9	9	90%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-2	50%

Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	24.0	4	40%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	20.1	7	44%	3	4	0	0	6	2	0	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	20.0	2	14%	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-4	0%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	18.7	5	63%	5	0	0	0	2	1	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	13.2	5	83%	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury Recovery
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	57%	44	31	5	3	16	16	11	33	11-13	85%	31-60	52%	12-30	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	UTA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.26 63.0%

UTA

1.14 56.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

56%

UTA

59%

Midrange

SAS

62%

UTA

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

27.0

42%

63%

UTA

18.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

SAS

83%

UTA

85%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Fox	31	103%	15.5 / 15
V. Wembanyama	26	87%	13.0 / 15
K. Johnson	21	55%	10.5 / 19
J. Champagnie	17	85%	8.5 / 10
S. Castle	16	47%	8.0 / 17
C. Bryant	7	70%	3.5 / 5
D. Harper	4	50%	2.0 / 4
H. Barnes	2	20%	1.0 / 5
K. Olynyk	2	25%	1.0 / 4
J. McLaughlin	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Bailey	25	78%	12.5 / 16
K. George	23	72%	11.5 / 16
J. Nurkić	17	43%	8.5 / 20
C. Williams	12	60%	6.0 / 10
S. Mykhailiuk	9	90%	4.5 / 5
I. Collier	7	44%	3.5 / 8
K. Filipowski	5	63%	2.5 / 4
K. Love	5	83%	2.5 / 3
W. Clayton	4	40%	2.0 / 5
B. Sensabaugh	2	14%	1.0 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 22 112.9	SAS 126.0 +15.9 UTA 110.1
Pace	13 100.5 2 103.4	SAS 96.8 UTA 102.3 +5.5
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 27 13.8	SAS 14.9 UTA 14.1 −0.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 20 53.6%	SAS 60.9% +6.5% UTA 54.4%
TO %	4 12.5% 23 14.4%	SAS 10.1% −5.0% UTA 15.1%
ORB %	10 26.2% 12 26.2%	SAS 17.5% UTA 24.4% +6.9%
FTrt	12 27.3 10 27.7	SAS 27.6 +13.2 UTA 14.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 2 69.6%	SAS 68.2% UTA 72.1% +3.9%
STL %	24 7.5% 14 8.5%	SAS 8.0% +2.9% UTA 5.1%
BLK %	10 10.0% 30 7.5%	SAS 18.3% +11.5% UTA 6.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 18 56.4%	SAS 63.0% +6.2% UTA 56.8%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 17 64.5%	SAS 55.6% UTA 58.8% +3.2%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 8 44.4%	SAS 61.5% +19.2% UTA 42.3%
3P %	15 35.9% 25 34.5%	SAS 41.9% +1.9% UTA 40.0%
FT %	12 78.7% 13 78.6%	SAS 83.3% UTA 84.6% +1.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 17 31.3%	SAS 20.7% UTA 37.8% +17.1%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 23 28.4%	SAS 29.9% UTA 28.9% −1.0%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 21 40.3%	SAS 49.4% +16.1% UTA 33.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	UTA
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	24.8	23.2
Points	126	109
Rebounds	41	44
Assists	30	31
Steals	8	5
Blocks	11	3
Turnovers (Team)	10 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls	13	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (3)	11 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (2)	33 (2)
Field Goals	44-87	43-90
At-the-Rim FG	10-18	20-34
Midrange FG	16-26	11-26
2-Point FG	26-44	31-60
3-Point FG	18-43	12-30
Free Throws	20-24	11-13
Fast Break Pts	32	10
2nd Chance Pts	8	10
Points in Paint	46	54
Pts off Turnovers	24	12
Bench Points	34	23
Biggest Lead	17	3

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg